Prognostic Significance of Hemodynamic and Clinical Stages in the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & GOALS: Early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with improved survival for patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). We evaluated the prognostic significance of hemodynamic stage (HS) and clinical stage (CS) in predicting HCC in CLD patients. METHODS: Between January 2006 and May 2014, 801 patients with CLD who underwent hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement were prospectively enrolled. HS was classified by HVPG (mm Hg) as follows: HS-1 (HVPG≤6), HS-2 (612 mm Hg (P=0.033, OR=2.17), CS>2 (P=0.039, OR=2.36), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP; P=0.017, OR=1.01) were significant predictors of HCC development in all patients. For patients with cirrhosis, ascites aggravation (OR=2.51), HVPG >12 mm Hg (OR=2.46), and CS >2 (OR=2.62) were correlated with HCC development. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of the prediction-model, CS, HVPG score, and AFP were 0.797, 0.707, 0.701, and 0.653, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: HCC development correlates with advancing liver fibrosis or disease as measured by HS and CS. In addition, ascites aggravation and elevated AFP appears to be associated with increased incidence of HCC.