Modeling treatment outcomes for patients with advanced ovarian cancer: Projected benefits of a test to optimize treatment selection.
Gynecol Oncol
; 149(2): 256-262, 2018 05.
Article
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| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29486993
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
For patients with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), substantial emphasis has been placed on diagnostic tests that can discern which of two treatment options - primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) or neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval cytoreductive surgery (NACT+ICS) - optimizes patient-level outcomes. Our goal was to project potential life expectancy (LE) gains that could be achieved by use of such a test.METHODS:
We developed a microsimulation model to project LE for patients with stage IIIC EOC. We compared a "standard-of-care" strategy, in which patients were triaged to PCS vs. NACT+ICS based on current clinical practice; and a "test" strategy, in which patients were triaged based on results of a hypothetical test. We identified those test performance characteristics for which the test strategy outperformed the standard-of-care strategy, from a LE standpoint. Effects of parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis.RESULTS:
Even with a perfect test, the LE gain was modest (LE with test vs. standard-of-care strategy=67.6 vs. 66.4months; LE gain=1.2months). In order to outperform the standard-of-care, the test had to have a high probability of correctly identifying "resectable" patients at PCS (i.e. those for whom complete or optimal cytoreduction would be possible); this test property was more important than correct triage of unresectable patients to NACT+ICS. Results were sensitive to the proportion of patients whose underlying disease was resectable at PCS.CONCLUSION:
Diagnostic tests that are designed to triage patients with advanced stage EOC will likely have only a modest effect on LE.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
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Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neoplasias Ováricas
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Modelos Estadísticos
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Neoplasias Glandulares y Epiteliales
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
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Humans
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Gynecol Oncol
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article