Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.
Sci Total Environ
; 634: 1326-1334, 2018 Sep 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29710632
ABSTRACT
Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×105km2 and 1.89×105km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.
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Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cambio Climático
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Paeonia
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Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Total Environ
Año:
2018
Tipo del documento:
Article