Performance of medical students in final professional examination: Can in-course continuous assessments predict students at risk?

Background: Assessment drives students' learning. It measures the level of students' understanding. We aimed to determine whether performance in continuous assessment can predict failure in the final professional examination results. Methods: We retrieved the in-course continuous assessment (ICA) and final professional examination results of 3 cohorts of medical students (n = 245) from the examination unit of the International Medical University, Seremban, Malaysia. The ICA was 3 sets of composite marks derived from course works, which includes summative theory paper with short answer questions and 1 of the best answers. The clinical examination includes end-of-posting practical examination. These examinations are conducted every 6 months in semesters 6, 7 and 8; they are graded as pass/fail for each student. The final professional examination including modified essay questions (MEQs), 1 8-question objective structured practical examination (OSPE) and a 16-station objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), were graded as pass/fail. Failure in the continuous assessment that can predict failure in each component of the final professional examination was tested using chi-square test and presented as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Failure in ICA in semesters 6-8 strongly predicts failure in MEQs, OSPE and OSCE of the final professional examination with OR of 3.8-14.3 (all analyses p< 0.001) and OR of 2.4-6.9 (p<0.05). However, the correlation was stronger with MEQs and OSPE compared to OSCE. Conclusion: ICA with theory and clinical examination had a direct relationship with students' performance in the final examination and is a useful assessment tool.