Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom.
J Theor Biol
; 509: 110501, 2021 01 21.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32980371
ABSTRACT
We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Modelos Estadísticos
/
Epidemias
/
Predicción
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
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Sysrev_observational_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
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Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Theor Biol
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article