Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy in Indian children: Predictors of outcome and validation of pre-treatment nomograms.

BACKGROUND: Although multiple variables have been shown to affect outcomes in pediatric lithotripsy (ESWL), there is no consensus on the same. Nomograms combine multiple variables and provide an objective prediction of outcomes. Two nomograms have been previously described and validated in two studies from the same geographical area. External validation in multiple settings is needed, as a nomogram's performance may vary with time, geographical area and clinical scenario. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify variables influencing pediatric ESWL outcomes, validate published nomograms and describe the clinical and metabolic profile of Indian children treated with ESWL. DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study included all children who underwent ESWL from 2002 to 2019 at a single centre. ESWL was performed under general anaesthesia. Mid and lower ureteric calculi were treated in prone and the rest in supine position. 1500-2000 shocks were delivered at a voltage of 12-16 kV. Data pertaining to patient characteristics, metabolic evaluation, imaging, ESWL details and post-procedure outcomes were obtained from the hospital information system and these variables, along with Onal and Dogan scores, were correlated with stone clearance. Cut-offs for Onal and Dogan scores were determined using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and compared with area under the curve (AUC). Complications, ancillary procedures and metabolic abnormalities were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 66 children (76 renal units) were included. Mean age was 5.5 years (Range 6 months-14 years) and median stone size, 12 mm (IQR 9, 15.25). Average treatment sessions were 1.8 ± 0.99. Median shocks in the stone-free group and those who failed treatment were 1750 (IQR 1500, 3000) and 3250 (IQR 1750, 4750) respectively. The remaining variables are depicted in Table 1. The stone free rate was 63.2%. Fragments <4 mm were seen in 19 (25%). Efficacy Quotient was 40. The AUC for Dogan nomogram (cut-off <199.5) was 0.761 while that for Onal nomogram (cut-off <2.5) was 0.762 and 0.771 after one and three shocks respectively. On multivariate analysis, age, multiple calculi, Onal and Dogan scores were predictive of clearance. Dogan score had higher specificity. Complications were seen in 16 (21%) and ancillary procedures needed in 7 (9.2%). Metabolic abnormalities were seen in 84.8%, the commonest being hyperoxaluria. Mixed stones were most frequent. CONCLUSIONS: Lithotripsy in children is safe and effective. Older age, presence of multiple calculi, higher Onal and Dogan scores are predictive of treatment failure.