The Cost of Quarantine: Projecting the Financial Impact of Canceled Elective Surgery on the Nation's Hospitals.
Ann Surg
; 273(5): 844-849, 2021 05 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33491974
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
We sought to quantify the financial impact of elective surgery cancellations in the US during COVID-19 and simulate hospitals' recovery times from a single period of surgery cessation.BACKGROUND:
COVID-19 in the US resulted in cessation of elective surgery-a substantial driver of hospital revenue-and placed patients at risk and hospitals under financial stress. We sought to quantify the financial impact of elective surgery cancellations during the pandemic and simulate hospitals' recovery times.METHODS:
Elective surgical cases were abstracted from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2016-2017). Time series were utilized to forecast March-May 2020 revenues and demand. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to calculate the time to clear backlog cases and match expected ongoing demand in the post-COVID period. Subset analyses were performed by hospital region and teaching status.RESULTS:
National revenue loss due to major elective surgery cessation was estimated to be $22.3 billion (B). Recovery to market equilibrium was conserved across strata and influenced by pre- and post-COVID capacity utilization. Median recovery time was 12-22âmonths across all strata. Lower pre-COVID utilization was associated with fewer months to recovery.CONCLUSIONS:
Strategies to mitigate the predicted revenue loss of $22.3B due to major elective surgery cessation will vary with hospital-specific supply-demand equilibrium. If patient demand is slow to return, hospitals should focus on marketing of services; if hospital capacity is constrained, efficient capacity expansion may be beneficial. Finally, rural and urban nonteaching hospitals may face increased financial risk which may exacerbate care disparities.
Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cuarentena
/
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Electivos
/
Costos de Hospital
/
Pandemias
/
Administración Financiera de Hospitales
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ann Surg
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article