The predictive value of endometrial thickness in 3117 fresh IVF/ICSI cycles for ectopic pregnancy.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the predictive value of endometrial thickness (EMT) during in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles for ectopic pregnancy (EP). METHODS: A total of 3068 patients with 3117 fresh IVF/ICSI cycles between January 2016 and February 2019 from the Reproductive Medicine Center of Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital were included in this retrospective study. The patients were divided into an EP group (n = 92) and an intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) group (n = 3025). Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the EP risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors for EP and calculate the cutoff value of EMT for EP prediction. RESULTS: The incidence rate of EP was 2.95 % (92/3117). After adjustment for other factors in the logistic regression model, the incidence of EP decreased by 55 % with an EMT > 10 mm compared with an EMT ≤ 10 mm (odds ratio 0.450, 95 % confidence interval 0.296-0.684, P < 0.001). The EMT in the EP group was significantly thinner than that in the live birth (n = 2540) and spontaneous abortion (n = 485) groups (p < 0.017). The cutoff value of EMT for EP prediction was 10.65 mm, with a sensitivity of 59 % and a specificity of 63 %. CONCLUSION: A decreased risk of EP was found among the patients with an EMT > 10 mm prior to embryo transfer. A certain EMT is needed to reduce the incidence of EP.