Noninvasive In Vivo Estimation of Blood-Glucose Concentration by Monte Carlo Simulation.

Continuous monitoring of blood-glucose concentrations is essential for both diabetic and nondiabetic patients to plan a healthy lifestyle. Noninvasive in vivo blood-glucose measurements help reduce the pain of piercing human fingertips to collect blood. To facilitate noninvasive measurements, this work proposes a Monte Carlo photon simulation-based model to estimate blood-glucose concentration via photoplethysmography (PPG) on the fingertip. A heterogeneous finger model was exposed to light at 660 nm and 940 nm in the reflectance mode of PPG via Monte Carlo photon propagation. The bio-optical properties of the finger model were also deduced to design the photon simulation model for the finger layers. The intensities of the detected photons after simulation with the model were used to estimate the blood-glucose concentrations using a supervised machine-learning model, XGBoost. The XGBoost model was trained with synthetic data obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations and tested with both synthetic and real data (n = 35). For testing with synthetic data, the Pearson correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) of the model was found to be 0.91, and the coefficient of determination (R2) was found to be 0.83. On the other hand, for tests with real data, the Pearson's r of the model was 0.85, and R2 was 0.68. Error grid analysis and Bland-Altman analysis were also performed to confirm the accuracy. The results presented herein provide the necessary steps for noninvasive in vivo blood-glucose concentration estimation.