Projection of temperature extremes of Egypt using CMIP6 GCMs under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int
; 30(13): 38063-38075, 2023 Mar.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36576621
ABSTRACT
Global warming has amplified the frequency of temperature extremes, especially in hot dry countries, which could have serious consequences for the natural and built environments. Egypt is one of the hot desert climate regions that are more susceptible to climate change and associated hazards. This study attempted to project the changes in temperature extremes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 and two future periods (early future 2020-2059 and late future 2060-2099) by using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of general circulation model (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The findings showed that most temperature extreme indices would increase especially by the end of the century. In the late future, the change in the mean Tmin (4.3 °C) was projected to be higher than the mean Tmax (3.7 °C). Annual maximum Tmax, temperature above 95th percentile of Tmax, and the number of hot days above 40 °C and 45 °C were projected to increase in the range 3.0â5.4 °C, 1.5â4.8 °C, 20â95 days, and 10â52 days, respectively. In contrast, the annual minimum of Tmin, temperature below the 5th percentile, and the annual percentage of cold nights were projected to change in the range of 2.95â5.0 °C, 1.4â3.6 °C, and - 0.1â0.1%, respectively. In all the cases, the lowest changes would be for SSP1-2.6 in the early period and the greatest changes for SSP5-8.5 in the late period. The study indicates that the country is likely to experience a rise in hot extremes and a decline in cold extremes. Therefore, Egypt should take long-term adaptation plans to build social resiliency to rising hot extremes.
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Texto completo:
1
Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Cambio Climático
/
Calor
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int
Asunto de la revista:
SAUDE AMBIENTAL
/
TOXICOLOGIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Egipto