Predictive value of serum apolipoprotein A-I in the organ failure of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Organ failure (OF) largely governs the outcomes and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but there is a lack of optimal prognostic biomarker for OF. This study is designed to investigate whether the serum apolipoprotein A-I (Apo A-I) level can predict OF in patients with AP. METHODS: A total of 424 patients with AP were reviewed in the study, and we finally got 228 patients eligible for analysis. Patients were divided into two groups based on serum Apo A-I level. Demographic information and clinical materials were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was the occurrence of OF. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression were conducted to analyze the relationship between Apo A-I and OF. Additionally, we used receiver operating characteristic analysis to clarify the predictive value of serum Apo A-I level for OF and mortality. RESULTS: Ninety-two patients and 136 patients were included in Apo A-I low and non-low groups, respectively. The occurrence of OF was significantly different in the two groups (35.9 vs. 9.6%, p < 0.001). Moreover, serum Apo A-I level markedly decreased across disease severity based on the 2012 Revised Atlanta Classification of AP. The decrease of serum apolipoprotein A-I was an independent risk factor for organ failure (OR 6.216, 95% CI 2.610, 14.806, p < 0.001). The area under the curve of serum Apo A-I was 0.828 and 0.889 for OF and mortality of AP, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Serum Apo A-I level in the early stage of the disease has a high predictive value for OF of AP.