Influence of age as a continuous variable on survival outcomes and treatment options in patients with upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma.

ABSTRACT

Background: This retrospective review of patients with upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) analyzed the prognostic value of age, as a continuous variable, and offered insight into treatment options. Methods: 568 upper ESCC patients underwent radical therapy between 2004 and 2016. Age as a continuous variable was entered into the Cox regression model with penalized spline (P-spline) analysis to investigate a correlation between age and survival outcomes. Results: Before adjustment, P-spline regression revealed U-shaped survival curves. Sixty years was the optimal cut-off age for differences in overall and progression-free survival (OS, PFS). The cohort was divided into age groups ≤ 50, 51-69, and ≥ 70 years. Multivariate analyses showed no significant differences in either PFS or OS for patients aged ≤ 50 and 51-69 years. After adjusting for covariates, P-spline regression showed that the risk of mortality and disease progression increased with age, and ≥ 70 years was an unfavorable independent prognostic factor. For age ≥ 70 years, the OS and PFS associated with non-surgery was comparable to that of surgery. For patients younger, the OS and PFS of patients given surgery was significantly better than that of patients given non-surgery. Conclusion: Age was an independent prognostic factor for upper ESCC. Patients ≥ 70 years achieved no significant survival benefit from surgery, but for those younger than 70 years surgery was the preferred treatment option.