Estimated effects of amyloid reduction on cognitive change: A Bayesian update across a range of priors.
Alzheimers Dement
; 20(2): 1149-1155, 2024 Feb.
Article
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| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37904290
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
The results of the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials have rekindled discussion on the impact of amyloid-targeting drugs. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify how rational observers would have updated their prior beliefs based on new trial results.METHODS:
We used publicly available data from the CLARITY-AD, GRADUATE I and II, and TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trials to estimate the effect of reducing amyloid on the clinical dementia rating scale, sum of boxes (CDR-SB) score. A range of prior positions were then updated according to Bayes' theorem using these estimates.RESULTS:
After updating with new trial data, a wide range of starting positions resulted in credible intervals that did not include no effect of amyloid reduction on CDR-SB score.DISCUSSION:
For a range of starting beliefs and assuming the veracity of the underlying data, rational observers would conclude there is a small benefit of amyloid reductions on cognition. This benefit must be weighed against opportunity cost and side-effect risk. HIGHLIGHTS The results of recent trials of amyloid-targeting drugs have rekindled discussion on the impact of amyloid reductions achieved with amyloid-targeting drugs on cognition. Prior to the announcement of trial results, beliefs about the effects of altering amyloid levels varied. For a range of starting beliefs, one would conclude there is a small benefit of amyloid reductions due to amyloid-targeting drugs on cognition. The perceived value of individual drugs must balance the magnitude of this benefit against opportunity cost and risk of side effects.Palabras clave
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Bases de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Enfermedad de Alzheimer
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Alzheimers Dement
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos