Estimating the Treatment and Prophylactic Economic Value of New Antimicrobials in Managing Antibiotic Resistance and Serious Infections for Common Pathogens in the USA: A Population Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a growing public health concern. There is a global need to estimate the population-level value of developing new antimicrobials and to ensure the effective use of existing antimicrobials as strategies to counteract antimicrobial resistance. To this aim, population-level value criteria need to be considered alongside conventional value measures. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a novel modelling approach to estimate the value of new antimicrobials, considering the transmission, diversity and enablement elements of STEDI value. METHODS: We developed a population-based mathematical model for the assessment of antimicrobial value considering both prophylactic use of antimicrobials and the treatment of selected serious hospital-acquired infections in hospitals in the USA at a population level. Large-scale clinical and population healthcare data were used to inform a modelling-based analysis assessing the impact of introducing a new antimicrobial compared with continuing with no new antimicrobial, accounting for the transmission, diversity and enablement value of antimicrobial agents. RESULTS: Over a 10-year period, the addition of a new antimicrobial as part of an antimicrobial stewardship strategy in the USA was estimated to result in a proportional reduction of 9.03% in projected antimicrobial resistance levels. This yielded an estimated reduction of $64.3 million in hospitalization costs and a gain of over 153,000 quality-adjusted life-years at an economic value of over $15.4 billion over 10 years. Considering input uncertainty, the estimate of monetary benefit ranged from $11.1 to $21.4 billion. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a new antimicrobial for treatment and prophylactic indications yields considerable clinical and economic benefits including transmission diversity and enablement value. These findings may provide decision makers with important evidence to support investment in new antimicrobials and antimicrobial stewardship policy that address the patient, population and system burden associated with antimicrobial resistance.