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Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change.
Devanand, Anjana; Falster, Georgina M; Gillett, Zoe E; Hobeichi, Sanaa; Holgate, Chiara M; Jin, Chenhui; Mu, Mengyuan; Parker, Tess; Rifai, Sami W; Rome, Kathleen S; Stojanovic, Milica; Vogel, Elisabeth; Abram, Nerilie J; Abramowitz, Gab; Coats, Sloan; Evans, Jason P; Gallant, Ailie J E; Pitman, Andy J; Power, Scott B; Rauniyar, Surendra P; Taschetto, Andréa S; Ukkola, Anna M.
Afiliación
  • Devanand A; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Falster GM; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Gillett ZE; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
  • Hobeichi S; Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
  • Holgate CM; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Jin C; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Mu M; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Parker T; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Rifai SW; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
  • Rome KS; Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
  • Stojanovic M; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Vogel E; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Abram NJ; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Abramowitz G; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Coats S; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Evans JP; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
  • Gallant AJE; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Pitman AJ; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Power SB; School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
  • Rauniyar SP; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Taschetto AS; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
  • Ukkola AM; Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, Ourense 32004, Spain.
Sci Adv ; 10(10): eadj3460, 2024 Mar 08.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38446893
ABSTRACT
We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia's Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around -50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to -13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.
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Texto completo: 1 Bases de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Sequías Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Oceania Idioma: En Revista: Sci Adv Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Australia
Texto completo
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Bases de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Cambio Climático / Sequías Límite: Humans País/Región como asunto: Oceania Idioma: En Revista: Sci Adv Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Australia