Determining sea-level rise in the Caribbean: A shift from temperature to mass control.

ABSTRACT

Tropical Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, most notably sea-level rise. The current sea-level rise in the Caribbean is 3.40 ± 0.3 mm/year (1993-2019), which is similar to the 3.25 ± 0.4 mm/year global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise (1993-2018). Throughout the year, Caribbean seasonal sea-level variability is found to respond to sea surface temperature variability. Over the past few decades, the trend in Caribbean Sea-level rise is also found to be variable. Satellite altimetry and steric sea-level records of the Caribbean region reveal a shift in the late 2003-early 2004, which separates two distinct periods of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion dominates the sea-level trend from 1993-2003. Following this period, there is an increased trend in sea-level rise, with a dominance of mass changes from 2004-2019, as confirmed by GRACE data. During this period, the sea-level trend is 6.15 ± 0.5 mm/year, which is 67% faster than the most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year for the period 2006-2018). Despite its reduced importance, increasing temperatures contribute greatly to sea-level rise in the Caribbean region through thermal expansion of ocean water, hence there is a need to limit the current trend of global warming.