Development and validation of a novel nomogram model predicting the unfavorable outcome based on NAR and collaterals status for patients with AIS.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is a leading cause of disability and mortality globally. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram based on neutrophil-to-albumin ratio (NAR) and collateral status in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with anterior large vessel occlusion (LVO). MATERIAL & METHOD: 590 AIS patients with LVO assessed for regional leptomeningeal collateral (rLMC) were retrospectively enrolled, and randomly divided into a training set (n = 414) and a testing set (n = 176). Unfavorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 3 to 6 at 3 months. We assessed the accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram using calibration plots, area under the curve (AUC), decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS: Both NAR and rLMC were independently associated with unfavorable outcome at 3 months (OR=8.96, p=0.0341; OR=0.89, p=0.0002, respectively). The developed nomogram (akaike information criterion (AIC)=398.77), which included NAR, rLMC and other factors, showed good performance (the AUC for the development and validation cohorts was 0.848 and 0.840 respectively) and improved the predictive value compared to a model without NAR and rLMC, according to an overall NRI of 3.27% (p=0.2401), overall IDI of 3.27% (p=0.2414), and a higher AUC (0.848 vs 0.831). CONCLUSIONS: NAR can serve as an independent predictor in AIS patients with anterior LVO, and the nomogram incorporating NAR and rLMC is reliable in predicting unfavorable outcome. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to validate and extend these findings.