Machine learning-based predictive model for the development of thrombolysis resistance in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to establish a predictive model utilizing machine learning techniques to anticipate the likelihood of thrombolysis resistance (TR) in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients undergoing recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) intravenous thrombolysis, given that nearly half of such patients exhibit poor clinical outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective clinical data were collected from AIS patients who underwent intravenous thrombolysis with rt-PA at the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University. Thrombolysis resistance was defined as ([National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission - 24-hour NIHSS] × 100％/ NIHSS at admission) ≤ 30%. In this study, we developed five machine learning models logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and random forest (RF). We assessed the model's performance by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and presented the results through a nomogram. RESULTS: This study included a total of 218 patients with AIS who were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, 88 patients experienced TR. Among the five machine learning models, the LASSO model performed the best. The area under the curve (AUC) on the testing group was 0.765 (sensitivity 0.767, specificity 0.694, accuracy 0.727). The apparent curve in the calibration curve was similar to the ideal curve, and DCA showed a positive net benefit. Key features associated with TR included NIHSS at admission, blood glucose, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, and blood urea nitrogen. CONCLUSION: Machine learning methods with multiple clinical variables can help in early screening of patients at high risk of thrombolysis resistance, particularly in contexts where healthcare resources are limited.