Tumour architecture, grade and location remain predictors of non-organ-confined upper tract urothelial carcinoma at time of radical nephroureterectomy: results from a multicenter Norwegian external validation study.

PURPOSE: Selecting patients for intensified treatment for upper tract urothelial carcinoma can be challenging, partly due to the lack of accurate preoperative staging tools. Several preoperative staging models for upper tract urothelial carcinoma have been presented, but none have been externally validated. The aim of the current study was to perform an external validation of the Margulis nomogram for predicting non-organ-confined upper tract urothelial carcinoma at time of nephroureterectomy. METHODS: 209 patients from two high-volume centres in Norway were treated with radical nephroureterectomy during the period 2005-2017. 163 patients with complete data necessary for external validation of the Margulis nomogram were included in the study. All relevant covariates were analysed with uni- and multivariate regression analysis to assess their ability to predict non-organ-confined disease. The Margulis nomogram was applied on the present cohort to calculate predicted risk of non-organ-confined disease. This was compared to the observed risk to assess model calibration. The Margulis nomogram accuracy was measured as the area under the curve in a receiver operator characteristics curve to evaluate model discrimination. RESULTS: Tumour grade (OR 28.1, p = 0.001) and architecture (OR 4.72, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of non-organ-confined disease. There was a high concordance between predicted and observed risk quantified with a Cronbach alpha of 0.96. The Margulis nomogram had an area under the curve of 0.83 in predicting non-organ-confined disease when applied on the current cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We consider the Margulis nomogram validated for clinical use.

Preoperative predictors of pathological tumour stage and prognosis may be used when selecting candidates for intensified treatment in upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Intensified treatment such as extended lymph node dissection (LND) and/or perioperative chemotherapy in addition to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) has been suggested for high-risk cases of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). We aimed to identify preoperative predictors of tumour stage and prognosis in the diagnostic work-up before RNU. Further to evaluate if our findings could be used in selecting patients for intensified treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 179 patients treated with RNU for UTUC at Haukeland University Hospital (HUS) and Vestfold Hospital Trust (VHT) during 2005-2017 were included in this retrospective study. All relevant preoperative variables regarding the patient, the CT and the ureteroscopy (URS) were registered and analysed regarding their ability to predict non-organ confined disease (NOCD, pT3+ and/or N+) at final pathology after RNU. The prognosis was assessed calculating survival for the cohort and stratified by preoperative variables. RESULTS: Local invasion and pathological lymph nodes at CT predicted NOCD in uni and multivariate regression analyses (OR 3.36, p=.004 and OR 6.21, p=.03, respectively). Reactive oedema surrounding the tumour (OR 2.55, p=.02), tumour size (4.8 vs. 3.9 cm, p=.006) and high-grade tumour at URS biopsy (OR 3.59, p=.04) predicted NOCD at univariate regression analyses. The 5-year CSS and OS for the entire cohort was 79% and 60%. ECOG, local invasion, pathological lymph nodes and reactive oedema surrounding the tumour at CT predicted CSS. CONCLUSIONS: Several variables at the CT predicted both stage and survival. Local invasion at CT seems the most promising feature for selecting patients for intensified treatment.