Development and validation of the Adverse Inpatient Medication Event model (AIME).

AIMS: Medication harm has negative clinical and economic consequences, contributing to hospitalisation, morbidity and mortality. The incidence ranges from 4 to 14%, of which up to 50% of events may be preventable. A predictive model for identifying high-risk inpatients can guide a timely and systematic approach to prioritisation. The aim of this study is to develop and internally validate a risk prediction model for prioritisation of hospitalised patients at risk of medication harm. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in general medical and geriatric specialties at an Australian hospital over six months. Medication harm was identified using International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes and the hospital's incident database. Sixty-eight variables, including medications and laboratory results, were extracted from the hospital's databases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the final risk model. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (AuROC) and clinical utility was determined using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The study cohort included 1982 patients with median age 74 years, of which 136 (7%) experienced at least one adverse medication event(s). The model included: length of stay, hospital re-admission within 12 months, venous or arterial thrombosis and/or embolism, ≥ 8 medications, serum sodium < 126 mmol/L, INR > 3, anti-psychotic, antiarrhythmic and immunosuppressant medications, and history of medication allergy. Validation gave an AuROC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65-0.74). Decision curve analysis identified that the AIME may be clinically useful to help guide decision making in practice. CONCLUSION: We have developed a predictive model with reasonable performance. Future steps include external validation and impact evaluation.

Systematic review of machine learning models for personalised dosing of heparin.

AIM: To identify and critically appraise studies of prediction models, developed using machine learning (ML) methods, for determining the optimal dosing of unfractionated heparin (UFH). METHODS: Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts and IEEE Xplore databases were searched from inception to 31 January 2020 to identify relevant studies using key search terms synonymous with artificial intelligence or ML, 'prediction', 'dose', 'activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT)' and 'UFH.' Studies had to have used ML methods for developing models that predicted optimal dose of UFH or target therapeutic aPTT levels in the hospital setting. The CHARMS Checklist was used to assess quality and risk of bias of included studies. RESULTS: Of 8393 retrieved abstracts, 61 underwent full text review and eight studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies described models for predicting aPTT, three studies described models predicting optimal dose of heparin during dialysis and one study described a model that used surrogate outcomes of clotting and bleeding to predict a therapeutic aPTT. Studies varied widely in reporting of study participants, feature characterisation and selection, handling of missing data, sample size calculations and the intended clinical application of the model. Only one study conducted an external validation and no studies evaluated model impacts in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: Studies of ML models for UFH dosing are few and none report a model ready for routine clinical use. Existing studies are limited by low methodological quality, inadequate reporting of study factors and absence of external validation and impact analysis.

The adverse inpatient medication event and frailty (AIME-frail) risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Medication harm affects between 5 and 15% of hospitalised patients, with approximately half of the harm events considered preventable through timely intervention. The Adverse Inpatient Medication Event (AIME) risk prediction model was previously developed to guide a systematic approach to patient prioritisation for targeted clinician review, but frailty was not tested as a candidate predictor variable. AIM: To evaluate the predictive performance of an updated AIME model, incorporating a measure of frailty, when applied to a new multisite cohort of hospitalised adult inpatients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at two tertiary Australian hospitals on patients discharged between 1st January and April 31, 2020. Data were extracted from electronic medical records (EMRs) and clinical coding databases. Medication harm was identified using ICD-10 Y-codes and confirmed by senior pharmacist review of medical records. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) was calculated for each patient. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a modified AIME model. Candidate variables of the original AIME model, together with new variables including HFRS were tested. Performance of the final model was reported using area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 4089 patient admissions were included, with a mean age ± standard deviation (SD) of 64 years (±19 years), 2050 patients (50%) were males, and mean HFRS was 6.2 (±5.9). 184 patients (4.5%) experienced one or more medication harm events during hospitalisation. The new AIME-Frail risk model incorporated 5 of the original variables: length of stay (LOS), anti-psychotics, antiarrhythmics, immunosuppressants, and INR greater than 3, as well as 5 new variables: HFRS, anticoagulants, antibiotics, insulin, and opioid use. The AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83) which was superior to the original model (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.65-0.74) with a sensitivity of 69%, specificity of 81%, positive predictive value of 0.14 (95% CI: 0.10-0.17) and negative predictive value of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99). The DCA identified the model as having potential clinical utility between the probability thresholds of 0.05-0.4. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of a frailty measure improved the predictive performance of the AIME model. Screening inpatients using the AIME-Frail tool could identify more patients at high-risk of medication harm who warrant timely clinician review.

Evaluating automated machine learning platforms for use in healthcare.

Objective: To describe development and application of a checklist of criteria for selecting an automated machine learning (Auto ML) platform for use in creating clinical ML models. Materials and Methods: Evaluation criteria for selecting an Auto ML platform suited to ML needs of a local health district were developed in 3 steps: (1) identification of key requirements, (2) a market scan, and (3) an assessment process with desired outcomes. Results: The final checklist comprising 21 functional and 6 non-functional criteria was applied to vendor submissions in selecting a platform for creating a ML heparin dosing model as a use case. Discussion: A team of clinicians, data scientists, and key stakeholders developed a checklist which can be adapted to ML needs of healthcare organizations, the use case providing a relevant example. Conclusion: An evaluative checklist was developed for selecting Auto ML platforms which requires validation in larger multi-site studies.

Artificial intelligence in medical referrals triage based on Clinical Prioritization Criteria.

The clinical prioritisation criteria (CPC) are a clinical decision support tool that ensures patients referred for public specialist outpatient services to Queensland Health are assessed according to their clinical urgency. Medical referrals are manually triaged and prioritised into three categories by the associated health service before appointments are booked. We have developed a method using artificial intelligence to automate the process of categorizing medical referrals based on clinical prioritization criteria (CPC) guidelines. Using machine learning techniques, we have created a tool that can assist clinicians in sorting through the substantial number of referrals they receive each year, leading to more efficient use of clinical specialists' time and improved access to healthcare for patients. Our research included analyzing 17,378 ENT referrals from two hospitals in Queensland between 2019 and 2022. Our results show a level of agreement between referral categories and generated predictions of 53.8%.

Explainable machine learning for real-time deterioration alert prediction to guide pre-emptive treatment.

The Electronic Medical Record (EMR) provides an opportunity to manage patient care efficiently and accurately. This includes clinical decision support tools for the timely identification of adverse events or acute illnesses preceded by deterioration. This paper presents a machine learning-driven tool developed using real-time EMR data for identifying patients at high risk of reaching critical conditions that may demand immediate interventions. This tool provides a pre-emptive solution that can help busy clinicians to prioritize their efforts while evaluating the individual patient risk of deterioration. The tool also provides visualized explanation of the main contributing factors to its decisions, which can guide the choice of intervention. When applied to a test cohort of 18,648 patient records, the tool achieved 100% sensitivity for prediction windows 2-8 h in advance for patients that were identified at 95%, 85% and 70% risk of deterioration.

Predicting Therapeutic Response to Unfractionated Heparin Therapy: Machine Learning Approach.

BACKGROUND: Unfractionated heparin (UFH) is an anticoagulant drug that is considered a high-risk medication because an excessive dose can cause bleeding, whereas an insufficient dose can lead to a recurrent embolic event. Therapeutic response to the initiation of intravenous UFH is monitored using activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) as a measure of blood clotting time. Clinicians iteratively adjust the dose of UFH toward a target, indication-defined therapeutic aPTT range using nomograms, but this process can be imprecise and can take ≥36 hours to achieve the target range. Thus, a more efficient approach is required. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict aPTT within 12 hours after a specified bolus and maintenance dose of UFH. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 3019 patient episodes of care from January 2017 to August 2020 using data collected from electronic health records of 5 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Data from 4 hospitals were used to build and test ensemble models using cross-validation, whereas data from the fifth hospital were used for external validation. We built 2 ML models: a regression model to predict the aPTT value after a UFH bolus dose and a multiclass model to predict the aPTT, classified as subtherapeutic (aPTT <70 seconds), therapeutic (aPTT 70-100 seconds), or supratherapeutic (aPTT >100 seconds). Modeling was performed using Driverless AI (H2O), an automated ML tool, and 17 different experiments were iteratively conducted to optimize model accuracy. RESULTS: In predicting aPTT, the best performing model was an ensemble with 4x LightGBM models with a root mean square error of 31.35 (SD 1.37). In predicting the aPTT class using a repurposed data set, the best performing ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 0.599 (SD 0.0289) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.735. External validation yielded similar results: root mean square error of 30.52 (SD 1.29) for the aPTT prediction model, and accuracy of 0.568 (SD 0.0315) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.724 for the aPTT multiclassification model. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ML model applied to intravenous UFH dosing that has been developed and externally validated in a multisite adult general medical and surgical inpatient setting. We present the processes of data collection, preparation, and feature engineering for replication.

Efficacy of Sofosbuvir plus Ledipasvir in Egyptian patients with COVID-19 compared to standard treatment: a randomized controlled trial.

COVID-19 is a pandemic disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, which is an RNA virus similar to the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the replication process. Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir is an approved drug to treat HCV infection. This study investigates the efficacy of Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir as a treatment for patients with moderate COVID-19 infection. This is a single-blinded parallel-randomized controlled trial. The participants were randomized equally into the intervention group that received Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (S.L. group), and the control group received Oseltamivir, Hydroxychloroquine, and Azithromycin (OCH group). The primary outcomes were the cure rate over time and the incidence of serious adverse events. The secondary outcomes included the laboratory findings. 250 patients were divided equally into each group. Both groups were similar regarding gender, but age was higher in the S.L. group (p=0.001). In the S.L. group, 89 (71.2%) patients were cured, while only 51 (40.8%) patients were cured in the OCH group. The cure rate was significantly higher in the S.L. group (RR=1.75, p<0.001). Kaplan-Meir plot showed a considerably higher cure over time in the S.L. group (Log-rank test, p=0.032). There were no deaths in the S.L. group, but there were six deaths (4.8%) in the OCH group (RR=0.08, p=0.013). Seven patients (5.6%) in the S.L. group and six patients (4.8%) in the OCH group were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) (RR=1.17, P=0.776). There were no significant differences between treatment groups regarding total leukocyte and neutrophils count, lymph, and urea. Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir is suggestive of being effective in treating patients with moderate COVID-19 infection. Further studies are needed to compare Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir with new treatment protocols.

Theatre Performance Dashboard: Development and Challenges.

Manual theatre performance measurement is resource yearning and inaccurate. To automate the process, we built a dashboard which provides interactive visualisation of key performance metrics related to operating theatres. The aim is to assist in the efficient management of surgical services and provide visibility on metrics trending over time for health service facilities.

What is needed to mainstream artificial intelligence in health care?

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a mainstream technology in many industries, but not yet in health care. Although basic research and commercial investment are burgeoning across various clinical disciplines, AI remains relatively non-existent in most healthcare organisations. This is despite hundreds of AI applications having passed proof-of-concept phase, and scores receiving regulatory approval overseas. AI has considerable potential to optimise multiple care processes, maximise workforce capacity, reduce waste and costs, and improve patient outcomes. The current obstacles to wider AI adoption in health care and the pre-requisites for its successful development, evaluation and implementation need to be defined.

The Clinical Nursing and Midwifery Dashboard (CNMD): A State-Wide Implementation.

The clinical nursing and midwifery dashboard (CNMD) was built to provide a near real-time information and data visualisations for nurse unit managers (NUMs) and maternity unit managers (MUMs) within only a 5-15 minutes delay from when they enter data to the integrated electronic medical records (ieMR) system. The dashboard displays metrics and information about current adult inpatients in overnight wards. The aim is to support NUMs and MUMs to manage their daily workload and have continuous visibility of patients nursing risk and safety assessment documentation. A quantitative evaluation approach was conducted to measure the impact of the dashboard on key performance indicators. Statistical analysis was completed to compare risk assessment average completion times prior to and post CNMD implementation. The results of the evaluation were positive, and the statistical analysis shows significant reduction in the average time to complete different risk assessments with p-value<0.01.