Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During the fifth wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan, which took place between June and September 2021, a significant number of COVID-19 cases with deterioration occurred in unvaccinated individuals < 65 years old. However, the risk factors for COVID-19 deterioration in this specific population have not yet been determined. This study developed a prediction method to identify COVID-19 patients < 65 years old who are at a high risk of deterioration. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed data from 1,675 patients < 65 years old who were admitted to acute care institutions in Fukushima with mild-to-moderate-1 COVID-19 based on the Japanese disease severity criteria prior to the fifth wave. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals in Yamagata. Logistic regression analyses using cluster-robust variance estimation were used to determine predictors of disease deterioration, followed by creation of risk prediction scores. Disease deterioration was defined as the initiation of medication for COVID-19, oxygen inhalation, or mechanical ventilation starting one day or later after admission. RESULTS: The patients whose condition deteriorated (8.6%) tended to be older, male, have histories of smoking, and have high body temperatures, low oxygen saturation values, and comorbidities, such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise variable selection using logistic regression to predict COVID-19 deterioration retained comorbidities of diabetes/obesity (DO), age (A), body temperature (T), and oxygen saturation (S). Two predictive scores were created based on the optimism-corrected regression coefficients: the DOATS score, including all of the above risk factors, and the DOAT score, which was the DOATS score without oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.85) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUROCs for each score were both 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), and the calibration slopes were both 0.80. A decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical practicability of both scores in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We established two prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of COVID-19 deterioration in mild/moderate patients < 65 years old.

Thymus and activation-regulated chemokine (TARC/CCL17) predicts decline of pulmonary function in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: The deterioration of pulmonary function, such as FEV1-decline, is strongly associated with poor prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, few investigations shed light on useful biomarkers for predicting the decline of pulmonary function. We evaluated whether thymus and activation-regulated chemokine (TARC), a Th2 inflammation marker, could predict rapid FEV1-decline in COPD patients. METHODS: We recruited 161 patients with stable COPD and performed pulmonary function test once every six months. At the time of registration, blood tests, including serum levels of TARC were performed. We assessed the correlation between changes in parameters of pulmonary function tests and serum levels of TARC. The rapid-decline in pulmonary function was determined using 25th percentile of change in FEV1 or FEV1 percent predicted (%FEV1) per year. RESULTS: In the FEV1-rapid-decline group, the frequency of exacerbations, the degree of emphysema, and serum levels of TARC was higher than in the non-rapid-decline group. When using %FEV1 as a classifier instead of FEV1, age, the frequency of exacerbations, the degree of emphysema and serum levels of TARC in the rapid-decline group was significantly greater than those in the non-rapid-decline group. In univariate logistic regression analysis, TARC was the significant predictive factor for rapid-decline group. In multivariate analysis adjusted for emphysema, serum levels of TARC are independently significant predicting factors for the rapid-decline group. CONCLUSIONS: TARC is an independent predictive biomarker for the rapid-decline in FEV1. Measuring serum TARC levels may help the management of COPD patients by predicting the risk of FEV1 decline.

Smaller erector spinae muscle size is associated with inability to recover activities of daily living after pneumonia treatment.

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients who are hospitalized due to pneumonia experience deterioration of their activities of daily living (ADL) during this period; in some cases, this loss of ADL is not recovered at the end of antibiotic treatment. In this study, we examined whether erector spinae muscle cross-sectional area (ESMCSA) measured by computed tomography (CT) could predict a low level of ADL at the end of antibiotic treatment for pneumonia. METHODS: Eighty patients (mean age 74.8 years) with pneumonia, who were admitted to Yamagata university hospital between 2015 and 2016, were analyzed retrospectively. In all cases, chest CT was performed on admission and ESMCSA was measured at the level of the 12th thoracic vertebra. Patient levels of ADL were also measured, both on admission and at the end of treatment, using the Barthel Index. RESULTS: Patients with lower levels of ADL at the end of treatment were significantly older and tended to have a lower body mass index, poorer nutritional status, and more severe pneumonia than did patients who were self-reliant. Significantly smaller ESMCSAs were noted in patients who required assistance at the end of treatment than in those who were self-reliant. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, smaller ESMCSA was significantly associated with a lower level of ADL at the end of treatment, independent of age, sex, severity of pneumonia, nutritional status, or dehydration status. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that ESMCSA can predict ADL level after antibiotic treatment of pneumonia.

E-selectin as a prognostic factor of patients hospitalized due to acute inflammatory respiratory diseases: a single institutional study.

When examining patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases, it is difficult to distinguish between infectious pneumonia and interstitial pneumonia and predict patient prognosis at the beginning of treatment. In this study, we assessed whether endothelial selectin (E-selectin) predicts the outcome of patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases. We measured E-selectin serum levels in 101 patients who were admitted to our respiratory care unit between January 2013 and December 2013 because of acute inflammatory respiratory diseases that were eventually diagnosed as interstitial pneumonia (n = 38) and lower respiratory tract infection (n = 63). Seven of these patients (n = 101) died. The pneumonia severity score was significantly higher and the oxygen saturation of arterial blood measured by pulse oximeter (SpO2)/fraction of inspiratory oxygen (FiO2) was significantly lower in the deceased patients than in the surviving patients. There were significantly fewer peripheral lymphocytes and significantly higher E-selectin serum levels in the deceased patients than in the surviving patients. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the E-selectin serum levels and SpO2/FiO2 ratio were independent predictive factors of prognosis. The risk of death during acute respiratory disease was determined using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.871 as calculated from the ES, and the cutoff value was 6453.04 pg/ml, with a sensitivity of 1.00 and a specificity of 0.72 (p = 0.0027). E-selectin may be a useful biomarker for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute inflammatory respiratory diseases.

Direct measurements of Ab and Ac using vertex and kaon charge tags at the SLAC detector.

Exploiting the manipulation of the SLAC Linear Collider electron-beam polarization, we present precise direct measurements of the parity-violation parameters A(c) and A(b) in the Z-boson-c-quark and Z-boson-b-quark coupling. Quark-antiquark discrimination is accomplished via a unique algorithm that takes advantage of the precise SLAC Large Detector charge coupled device vertex detector, employing the net charge of displaced vertices as well as the charge of kaons that emanate from those vertices. From the 1996-1998 sample of 400 000 Z decays, produced with an average beam polarization of 73.4%, we find A(c)=0.673+/-0.029(stat)+/-0.023(syst) and A(b)=0.919+/-0.018(stat)+/-0.017(syst).

Improved direct measurement of A(b) and A(c) at the Z(0) pole using a lepton tag.

The parity violation parameters A(b) and A(c) of the Zb(b) and Zc(c) couplings have been measured directly, using the polar angle dependence of the polarized cross sections at the Z(0) pole. Bottom and charmed hadrons were tagged via their semileptonic decays. Both the electron and muon analyses take advantage of new multivariate techniques to increase the analyzing power. Based on the 1993-1998 SLD sample of 550,000 Z(0) decays produced with highly polarized electron beams, we measure A(b) = 0.919+/-0.030(stat)+/-0.024(syst), and A(c) = 0.583+/-0.055(stat)+/-0.055(syst).

Improved direct measurement of the parity-violation parameter Ab using a mass tag and momentum-weighted track charge.

We present an improved direct measurement of the parity-violation parameter A(b) in the Z boson-b-quark coupling using a self-calibrating track-charge technique applied to a sample enriched in Z-->bb events via the topological reconstruction of the B hadron mass. Manipulation of the Stanford Linear Collider electron-beam polarization permits the measurement of A(b) to be made independently of other Z-pole coupling parameters. From the 1996-1998 sample of 400,000 hadronic Z decays, produced with an average beam polarization of 73.4%, we find A(b)=0.906+/-0.022(stat)+/-0.023(syst).