No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation.

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Low-severity fires in the boreal region: reproductive implications for black spruce stands in between stand-replacing fire events.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Stand-replacing crown fires are the most prevalent type of fire regime in boreal forests in North America. However, a substantial proportion of low-severity fires are found within fire perimeters. Here we aimed to investigate the effects of low-severity fires on the reproductive potential and seedling recruitment in boreal forests stands in between stand-replacing fire events. METHODS: We recorded site and tree characteristics from 149 trees within twelve sites dominated by mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] trees in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The presence of fire-scarred trees supported classification of sites as unburned or affected by low-severity fires in recent history. We used non-parametric tests to evaluate differences in site conditions between unburned and low-severity sites, and mixed effect models to evaluate differences in tree age, size, and reproductive traits among unburned trees and trees from low-severity sites. KEY RESULTS: Results showed significantly higher density of dead black spruce trees in low-severity sites, and marginally significant higher presence of permafrost. Trees from low-severity fire sites were significantly older, exhibited significantly lower tree growth, and showed a tendency towards a higher probability of cone presence and percentage of open cones compared to trees from unburned sites. Surviving fire-scarred trees affected by more recent low-severity fires showed a tendency towards higher probability of cone presence and cone production. Density of black spruce seedlings significantly increased with recent low-severity fires. CONCLUSIONS: Trees in low-severity sites appeared to have escaped mortality from up to three fires, as indicated by fire scar records and their older ages. Shallow permafrost at low-severity sites may cause lower flammability, allowing areas to act as fire refugia. Low-severity surface fires temporarily enhanced the reproductive capacity of surviving trees and the density of seedlings, likely as a stress response to the fire event.

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests.

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.

The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.