The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study.

INTRODUCTION: Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction. METHODS: Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days. RESULTS: In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

Predictive model of mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

BACKGROUND: Hospital mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is high despite albumin treatment, particularly in those with worse liver and/or renal function. AIM: To determine the independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and to create and validate a predictive model of mortality in patients with SBP. METHODS: We analysed all cirrhotic patients with high-risk SBP (serum urea ≥11 mmol/L and/or serum bilirubin ≥68 µmol/L) between 2001 and 2011. We developed a predictive model of in-hospital mortality and validated this in a different cohort. RESULTS: We included 118 high-risk SBP episodes treated with antibiotics and albumin. In-hospital mortality was 33/118 (28%). The independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality at SBP diagnosis were serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure. A predictive model including these four variables showed a discrimination accuracy (AUC) of 0.850, 95% CI 0.777-0.922. A cut-off point of 0.245 showed a sensitivity of 0.85 and specificity of 0.75. The in-hospital mortality was 28/49 (57.1%) in patients with a model value ≥0.245, and 5/69 (7.2%) in patients with a model value <0.245 (P < 0.001). The validation series included 161 patients with an in-hospital mortality of 40/161 (24.8%), 30/77 (39.0%) in patients with a model value ≥0.245, and 10/84 (11.9%) in those with a model value <0.245 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a predictive model of mortality that includes serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure in high-risk patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. These findings may help to identify patients who would benefit from additional therapeutic strategies.