Integrated analysis of urbanization-triggered land use change trajectory and implications for ecological land management: A case study in Fuyang, China.

Land use change under rapid urbanization can drastically change terrestrial ecological conditions. This study presents an integrated analysis of land use dynamics and the resultant ecological impacts on sustainable development over the past 25 years (1990-2015) in response to urban development. Remote sensing and geographic information system techniques were employed to examine the spatiotemporal trajectory of land use changes. Based on the analysis of the equivalent factor table for land use types and ecosystem services value (ESV), the value of ecosystem services was calculated in the case study of Fuyang, China. Correlations were identified between ESV and a family of landscape fragmentation metrics. The results showed that the area affected by land use changes represented 33.35% of the total study area and caused a 31.74 million US$·a-1 decrease in ESV from 1990 to 2015. The ESV was spatially imbalanced and generally low in urban areas. Ecological plans for cropland reforestation and urban green projects were effective in slowing ESV losses while urban areas rapidly developed. In addition, total ESV was negatively correlated with edge density (ED), patch density (PD), landscape shape index (LSI), and Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) but positively correlated with aggregation index (AI), suggesting that landscape fragmentation had an adverse impact on the overall ESV in Fuyang. Therefore, sustainable land use planning must be integrated with landscape patterns to provide useful guidance regarding the spatial regulation of a given area to protect and improve ecosystem services.

How Much Education Is Needed to Delay Women's Age at Marriage and First Pregnancy?

Background: Early childbirth is associated with adverse maternal and child health outcomes. In South Asia, where women generally marry before having children, public health efforts need to focus on delaying marriage. Female education is widely considered the primary means to achieve this. However, it remains unclear how much education is required to delay marriage to the universal minimum age of 18 years, or what predicts marriage age in women lacking any education. This is crucial to address in the Terai region of Nepal which has the highest proportion of children out of school and where girls marry and have their first pregnancy early. Methods: We analyzed data from 6,406 women aged 23-30 years from a cluster-randomized trial in lowland Terai Nepal. Using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models, we investigated associations between women's education level and age at marriage and first pregnancy, and the interval between these events. Among the uneducated women, we investigated associations of husband's education level with the same outcomes. Results: Compared to uneducated women, educated women had a greater probability of delaying marriage until the age of 18 years and of pregnancy until 20 years. Women needed to complete grade 9, and ideally 11, to substantially increase their odds of marrying after 18 years. Delaying first pregnancy to 20 years was largely due to marrying later; education had little extra effect. The association of marriage with first pregnancy age worked independently of education. However, later-marrying women, who generally had completed more education, had their first pregnancy sooner after marriage than earlier marrying women. Most uneducated women, regardless of their husbands' level of education, still married under the legal age of marriage. Conclusion: Delaying marriage to majority age requires greater efforts to ensure girls get to school in the first place, and complete secondary education. Since currently only 36% of girls in the Terai attend secondary school, parallel efforts to delay marriage are crucial to prevent early childbearing. Sexual and reproductive health programmes in school and in women's groups for married and uneducated adolescents may help prepare for marriage and pregnancy.

A Comparative Assessment of the Influences of Human Impacts on Soil Cd Concentrations Based on Stepwise Linear Regression, Classification and Regression Tree, and Random Forest Models.

Soil cadmium (Cd) contamination has attracted a great deal of attention because of its detrimental effects on animals and humans. This study aimed to develop and compare the performances of stepwise linear regression (SLR), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) models in the prediction and mapping of the spatial distribution of soil Cd and to identify likely sources of Cd accumulation in Fuyang County, eastern China. Soil Cd data from 276 topsoil (0-20 cm) samples were collected and randomly divided into calibration (222 samples) and validation datasets (54 samples). Auxiliary data, including detailed land use information, soil organic matter, soil pH, and topographic data, were incorporated into the models to simulate the soil Cd concentrations and further identify the main factors influencing soil Cd variation. The predictive models for soil Cd concentration exhibited acceptable overall accuracies (72.22% for SLR, 70.37% for CART, and 75.93% for RF). The SLR model exhibited the largest predicted deviation, with a mean error (ME) of 0.074 mg/kg, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.160 mg/kg, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.274 mg/kg, and the RF model produced the results closest to the observed values, with an ME of 0.002 mg/kg, an MAE of 0.132 mg/kg, and an RMSE of 0.198 mg/kg. The RF model also exhibited the greatest R2 value (0.772). The CART model predictions closely followed, with ME, MAE, RMSE, and R2 values of 0.013 mg/kg, 0.154 mg/kg, 0.230 mg/kg and 0.644, respectively. The three prediction maps generally exhibited similar and realistic spatial patterns of soil Cd contamination. The heavily Cd-affected areas were primarily located in the alluvial valley plain of the Fuchun River and its tributaries because of the dramatic industrialization and urbanization processes that have occurred there. The most important variable for explaining high levels of soil Cd accumulation was the presence of metal smelting industries. The good performance of the RF model was attributable to its ability to handle the non-linear and hierarchical relationships between soil Cd and environmental variables. These results confirm that the RF approach is promising for the prediction and spatial distribution mapping of soil Cd at the regional scale.

Drivers of aboveground wood production in a lowland tropical forest of West Africa: teasing apart the roles of tree density, tree diversity, soil phosphorus, and historical logging.

Tropical forests currently play a key role in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle and abating climate change by storing carbon in wood. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether tropical forests will continue to act as carbon sinks in the face of increased pressure from expanding human activities. Consequently, understanding what drives productivity in tropical forests is critical. We used permanent forest plot data from the Gola Rainforest National Park (Sierra Leone) - one of the largest tracts of intact tropical moist forest in West Africa - to explore how (1) stand basal area and tree diversity, (2) past disturbance associated with past logging, and (3) underlying soil nutrient gradients interact to determine rates of aboveground wood production (AWP). We started by statistically modeling the diameter growth of individual trees and used these models to estimate AWP for 142 permanent forest plots. We then used structural equation modeling to explore the direct and indirect pathways which shape rates of AWP. Across the plot network, stand basal area emerged as the strongest determinant of AWP, with densely packed stands exhibiting the fastest rates of AWP. In addition to stand packing density, both tree diversity and soil phosphorus content were also positively related to productivity. By contrast, historical logging activities negatively impacted AWP through the removal of large trees, which contributed disproportionately to productivity. Understanding what determines variation in wood production across tropical forest landscapes requires accounting for multiple interacting drivers - with stand structure, tree diversity, and soil nutrients all playing a key role. Importantly, our results also indicate that logging activities can have a long-lasting impact on a forest's ability to sequester and store carbon, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding old-growth tropical forests.

Bird distributions relative to remotely sensed habitats in Great Britain: towards a framework for national modelling.

This paper develops a comprehensive and objective picture of bird distributions relative to habitats across Britain. Bird species presence/absence data from an extensive field survey and habitat data from the remotely sensed UK Land Cover Map 2000 were analysed in 36,920 tetrads (2 kmx2 km) across Britain (a 65% sample of Britain's c. 240,000 km2). Cluster analysis linked birds to generalised landscapes based on distinctive habitat assemblages. Maps of the clusters showed strong regional patterns associated with the habitat assemblages. Cluster centroid coordinates for each bird species and each habitat were combined across clusters to derive individualised bird-habitat preference indices and examine the importance of individual habitats for each bird species. Even rare species and scarce habitats showed successful linkages. Results were assessed against published accounts of bird-habitat relations. Objective corroboration strongly supported the associations. Relatively scarce coastal and wetland habitats proved particularly important for many birds. However, extensive arable farmland and woodland habitats were also favoured by many species, despite reported declines in bird numbers in these habitats. The fact that habitat-specialists do not or cannot move habitat is perhaps a reason for declining numbers where habitats have become unsuitable. This study showed that there are unifying principles determining bird-habitat relations which apply and can be quantified at the national scale, and which corroborate and complement the cumulative knowledge of many and varied surveys and ecological studies. This 'generality' suggests that we may be able, reliably and objectively, to integrate and scale up such disparate studies to the national scale, using this generalised framework. It also suggests the potential for a landscape ecology approach to bird-habitat analyses. Such developments will be important steps in building models to develop and test the sustainable management of landscapes for birds.