The Temporal Effects of Divorces and Separations on Children's Academic Achievement and Problem Behavior.

This paper provides an examination of the effects of the divorce and separation process on children's academic achievement over time. By using child fixed effects and establishing a baseline period that is 4-or-more years prior to a family disruption, I can examine how children are affected in different periods relative to the disruption and whether any negative effects subside, persist, or escalate as time passes from the disruption. With a sample of 7-14 year olds, I find: children are affected at least 2-4 years before the disruption; reading test scores are most affected; and for Reading Comprehension, the negative effects persist and even escalate as time passes from the disruption.

Disparities in criminal court referrals to drug treatment and prison for minority men.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the extent to which racial/ethnic disparities in prison and diversion to drug treatment were explained by current arrest and criminal history characteristics among drug-involved offenders, and whether those disparities decreased after California's Proposition 36, which mandated first- and second-time nonviolent drug offenders drug treatment instead of prison. METHODS: We analyzed administrative data on approximately 170,000 drug-involved arrests in California between 1995 and 2005. We examined odds ratios from logistic regressions for prison and diversion across racial/ethnic groups before and after Proposition 36. RESULTS: We found significant disparities in prison and diversion for Blacks and Hispanics relative to Whites. These disparities decreased after controlling for current arrest and criminal history characteristics for Blacks. Proposition 36 was also associated with a reduction in disparities, but more so for Hispanics than Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in prison and diversion to drug treatment among drug-involved offenders affect hundreds of thousands of citizens and might reinforce imbalances in criminal justice and health outcomes. Our study indicated that standardized criminal justice policies that improved access to drug treatment might contribute to alleviating some share of these disparities.

The temporal effects of parental divorce on youth substance use.

This article examines how the parental divorce process affects youth substance use at various stages relative to the divorce. With child-fixed-effect models and a baseline period that is long before the divorce, the estimates rely on within-child changes over time. Youth are more likely to use alcohol 2-4 years before a parental divorce. After the divorce, youth have an increased risk of using alcohol and marijuana, with the effect for marijuana being 12.1 percentage points in the two years right after the divorce (p = .010). The magnitudes of the effects persist as time passes from the divorce.

Effects of Iraq/Afghanistan deployments on major depression and substance use disorder: analysis of active duty personnel in the US military.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to analyze the association between deployment characteristics and diagnostic rates for major depression and substance use disorder among active duty personnel. METHODS: Using active duty personnel serving between 2001 and 2006 (n = 678,382) and deployment information from the Contingent Tracking System, we identified individuals diagnosed with substance use disorders and major depression from TRICARE health records. We performed logistic regression analysis to assess the effect of deployment location and length on these diagnostic rates. RESULTS: Increased odds of diagnosis with both conditions were associated with deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan compared with nondeployed personnel and with Army and Marine Corps personnel compared with Navy and Air Force personnel. Increases in the likelihood of either diagnosis with deployment length were only observed among Army personnel. CONCLUSIONS: There were increased substance use disorders and major depression across services associated with combat conditions. It would be important to assess whether the public health system has adequate resources to handle the increasing need of mental health services in this population.

How does youth cigarette use respond to weak economic periods? Implications for the current economic crisis.

This paper examines whether youth cigarette use increases during weak economic periods (as do youth alcohol and drug use). The data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. With repeated measures over the 1997-2006 period, for almost 9,000 individuals, the samples include 30,000+ teenagers (15-19 years) and 30,000+ young adults (20-24 years). Logit models with state and year controls are estimated. The results indicate that teenagers and young adults increase cigarette use when the economy is weaker, implying that the current financial crisis has likely increased youth cigarette use relative to what it would have otherwise been.

Effects of Iraq/Afghanistan deployments on PTSD diagnoses for still active personnel in all four services.

We estimate the effect of deployment location and length on risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We draw a random sample of active duty enlisted personnel serving between 2001 and 2006 from a TRICARE beneficiary database and link deployment characteristics from the contingency tracking system. Using logistic regressions, we found that deployment to Iraq/Afghanistan increases the odds of developing PTSD substantially, relative to those in other duties, with the largest effect observed for the Navy (OR = 9.06, p < 0.01) and the smallest effect for the Air Force (OR = 1.25, p < 0.01). A deployment longer than 180 days increases the odds of PTSD by 1.11 to 2.84 times compared to a short tour. For Army and Navy, a deployment to Iraq/Afghanistan further exacerbates the adverse effect of tour length.

The effects of deployment intensity on post-traumatic stress disorder: 2002-2006.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines whether deployment location and the duration of deployment affects the likelihood of being screened positive for PTSD. METHODS: Retrospective study of all sailors returning from an overseas deployment between 2002 and 2006 who have completed the Post-Deployment Health Assessment survey. The primary outcome is whether the sailor is screened positive for PTSD. Multivariate analysis is conducted using probit models. RESULTS: Deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan increases the probability of screening positive for PTSD by 6.3 and 1.6 percentage points compared to those who were deployed on ships. This probability is increased by 2.2 percentage points for those deployed longer than 180 days. The negative effect of longer deployments is exacerbated if the deployment is to Iraq or Afghanistan. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the importance of providing adequate mental health care resources for those returning from hostile deployments and raise concerns about combat effectiveness of long deployments.

Association between baseline psychological attributes and mental health outcomes after soldiers returned from deployment.

BACKGROUND: Psychological health is vital for effective employees, especially in stressful occupations like military and public safety sectors. Yet, until recently little empirical work has made the link between requisite psychological resources and important mental health outcomes across time in those sectors. In this study we explore the association between 14 baseline psychological health attributes (such as adaptability, coping ability, optimism) and mental health outcomes following exposure to combat deployment. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all U.S. Army soldiers who enlisted between 2009 and 2012 and took the Global Assessment Tools (GAT) before their first deployment (n = 63,186). We analyze whether a soldier screened positive for depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after returning from deployment using logistic regressions. Our key independent variables are 14 psychological attributes based on GAT, and we control for relevant demographic and service characteristics. In addition, we generate a composite risk score for each soldier based on the predicted probabilities from the above multivariate model using just baseline psychological attributes and demographic information. RESULTS: Comparing those who scored in the bottom 5 percentile of each attribute to those in the top 95 percentile, the odds ratio of post-deployment depression symptoms ranges from 1.21 (95% CI 1.06, 1.40) for organizational trust to 1.73 (CI 1.52, 1.97) for baseline depression. The odds ratio of positive screening of PTSD symptoms ranges from 1.22 for family support (CI 1.08, 1.38) to 1.51 for baseline depression (CI 1.32, 1.73). The risk profile analysis shows that 31% of those who screened positive for depression and 27% of those who screened positive for PTSD were concentrated among the top 5% high risk population. CONCLUSION: A set of validated, self-reported questions administered early in a soldier's career can predict future mental health problems, and can be used to improve workforce fit and provide significant financial benefits to organizations that do so.

Marijuana use and depression among adults: Testing for causal associations.

AIM: To determine whether marijuana use predicts later development of depression after accounting for differences between users and non-users of marijuana. DESIGN: An ongoing longitudinal survey of 12 686 men and women beginning in 1979. SETTING: The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979, a nationally representative sample from the United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 8759 adults (age range 29-37 years) interviewed in 1994 had complete data on past-year marijuana use and current depression. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported past-year marijuana use was tested as an independent predictor of later adult depression using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression questionnaire. Individual's propensity to use marijuana was calculated using over 50 baseline covariates. FINDINGS: Before adjusting for group differences, the odds of current depression among past-year marijuana users is 1.4 times higher (95% CI: 1.1, 1.9) than the odds of depression among the non-using comparison group. After adjustment, the odds of current depression among past-year marijuana users is only 1.1 times higher than the comparison group (95% CI: 0.8, 1.7). Similarly, adjustment eliminates significant associations between marijuana use and depression in four additional analyses: heavy marijuana use as the risk factor, stratifying by either gender or age, and using a 4-year lag-time between marijuana use and depression. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for differences in baseline risk factors of marijuana use and depression, past-year marijuana use does not significantly predict later development of depression. These findings are discussed in terms of their relevance for understanding possible causal effects of marijuana use on depression.

Decomposing Racial Disparities in Prison and Drug Treatment Commitments for Criminal Offenders in California.

Blacks convicted of drug-related offenses in the U.S. have higher prison-commitment rates than Whites. Studies have been largely unsuccessful in explaining these disparities. This study uses administrative data from a random sample of individuals arrested for drug offenses in California to examine this issue. We use a decomposition model to estimate whether Black-White disparities in commitments to prison or diversions to drug treatment are attributable to differences in the characteristics of criminal cases and whether case characteristics are weighed differently by race. We also examine whether the influence of case characteristics changes after California implemented Proposition 36, which was a mandatory prison diversion program for eligible drug offenders. Our results suggest that Black-White differences in prison commitments are fully explained by criminal case characteristics, but that a significant portion of the differences in treatment diversions remain unexplained. The unexplained variation in drug treatment also does not change after Proposition 36. These findings suggest that case characteristics play a larger role in explaining prison commitments for drug offenders than the discretion of prosecutors and judges. By contrast, diversion to drug treatment appears to be driven more by the discretion of court officials and Black-White disparities remain prominent.

Longitudinal association between marital disruption and child BMI and obesity.

This research examines whether family disruptions (i.e., divorces and separation) contribute to children's weight problems. The sample consists of 7,299 observations for 2,333 children, aged 5-14, over the 1986-2006 period, from a US representative sample from the Child and Young Adult Survey accompanying the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). The study uses individual-fixed-effects models in a longitudinal framework to compare children's BMI and weight problems before and after a disruption. Furthermore, besides doing a before-after comparison for children, the study also estimates the effects at various periods relative to the disruption in order to examine whether children are affected before the disruption and whether any effects change as time passes from the disruption, as some effects may be temporary or slow to develop. Despite having a larger sample than the previous studies, the results provide no evidence that, on average, children's BMI and BMI percentile scores (measured with continuous outcomes) are affected before the disruption, after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption, relative to a baseline period a few years before the disruption. However, children experiencing a family disruption do have an increased risk of obesity (having a BMI percentile score of 95 or higher) in the two years leading up to the disruption as well as after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption.

Recessions and the participation of youth in the selling and use of illicit drugs.

BACKGROUND: There has been limited research on how recessions (or more generally, the strength of the economy) affect drug use and the related outcome of drug selling. This is especially important, given the current economic crisis. This paper aims to use a conceptual framework, previous research, and new research to predict how the current economic crisis may be affecting youth drug selling and drug use. METHODS: A conceptual framework to understand how a recession could affect youth drug selling and drug use is presented, along with a review of the literature on empirical investigations on how the strength of the economy affects these behaviours among teenagers. In addition, new analyses for young adults are presented. RESULTS: The conceptual framework postulates that a recession would have direct positive effects on the prevalence of youth drug selling but ambiguous direct effects on youth drug use. The conceptual framework also postulates that drug selling and drug use are inter-connected at the individual level and the aggregate level. Thus, any effect of a recession on one would likely affect the other in the same direction. The limited empirical evidence indicates that both drug selling and drug use among youth are higher when the economy is weaker. CONCLUSIONS: The current economic crisis will likely increase both youth drug selling and drug use relative to what they would have otherwise been.

Brief report of a test of differential alcohol risk using sibling attributions of paternal alcoholism.

OBJECTIVE: Parental alcoholism is generally found to be a strong predictor of alcohol misuse. Although the majority of siblings agree on the presence of parental alcohol issues, there is a significant minority who do not. METHOD: The current study analyzed sibling data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth using multilevel modeling, which accounts for the nested structure of the data. These analyses permitted a test of whether (a) identifying one's father as an alcoholic predicted greater risk of alcohol problems, (b) being from a family whose siblings did not all agree on the presence of paternal alcoholism increased the likelihood of alcohol problems, and (c) risk of alcohol misuse significantly differed among individuals from families in which there was familial disagreement about paternal alcoholism. RESULTS: Results show that individuals who identified their father as an alcoholic were themselves more likely to have alcohol issues as compared with individuals both within and between families who did not identify their father as an alcoholic. Risk was similar for individuals in families in which there was disagreement about paternal alcoholism compared with individuals from families in which everyone agreed on the presence of paternal alcoholism. Moreover, there was not a significant interaction between paternal alcoholism attributions and familial disagreement. CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate that in the case of child reports of paternal alcoholism, the increased risk of alcohol problems holds true regardless of the accuracy of an individual's assessment. These results may be not only because of the impact of paternal alcoholism on a person's alcohol misuse but also because of a person's alcohol problems potentially influencing his or her perceptions of familial alcohol-related behaviors.

How the economy affects teenage weight.

Much research has focused on the proximate determinants of weight gain and obesity for adolescents, but not much information has emerged on identifying which adolescents might be at risk or on prevention. This research focuses on a distal determinant of teenage weight gain, namely changes in the economy, which may help identify geographical areas where adolescents may be at risk and may provide insights into the mechanisms by which adolescents gain weight. This study uses a nationally representative sample of individuals, between 15 and 18 years old from the 1997 US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, to estimate a model with state and year fixed effects to examine how within-state changes in the unemployment rate affect four teenage weight outcomes: an age- and gender-standardized percentile in the body-mass-index distribution and indicators for being overweight, obese, and underweight. I found statistically significant estimates, indicating that females gain weight in weaker economic periods and males gain weight in stronger economic periods. Possible causes for the contrasting results across gender include, among other things, differences in the responsiveness of labor market work to the economy and differences in the types of jobs generally occupied by female and male teenagers.

Does the economy affect teenage substance use?

This research examines how teenage drug and alcohol use responds to changes in the economy. In contrast to the recent literature confirming pro-cyclical alcohol use among adults, this research offers strong evidence that a weaker economy leads to greater teenage marijuana and hard-drug use and some evidence that a weaker economy also leads to higher teenage alcohol use. The findings are based on logistic models with state and year fixed effects, using teenagers from the NLSY-1997. The evidence also indicates that teenagers are more likely to sell drugs in weaker economies. This suggests one mechanism for counter-cyclical drug use - that access to illicit drugs is easier when the economy is weaker. These results also suggest that the strengthening economy in the 1990s mitigated what would otherwise have been much larger increases in teenage drug use.