Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.

The native-invasive balance: implications for nutrient cycling in ecosystems.

We conducted single- and mixed-litter experiments in a hardwood forest in Long Island, New York, using leaf litter from phylogenetically paired native and invasive species. We selected long-established, abundant invasive species with wide-ranging distributions in the eastern United States that likely make substantial contributions to the litter pool of invaded areas. Overall, leaf litter from invasive species differed from native litter, though differences varied by phylogenetic grouping. Invasive litter had lower carbon:nitrogen ratios (30.9 ± 1.96 SE vs. 32.8 ± 1.36, P = 0.034) and invasive species lost 0.03 ± 0.007 g of nitrogen and had 23.4 ± 4.9 % of their starting mass remaining at the end of 1 year compared with a loss of 0.02 ± 0.003 g nitrogen and 31.1 ± 2.6 % mass remaining for native species. Mixing litter from two species did not alter decomposition rates when native species were mixed with other native species, or when invasive species were mixed with other invasive species. However, mixing litter of native and invasive species resulted in significantly less mass and nitrogen loss than was seen in unmixed invasive litter. Mixtures of native and invasive litter lost all but 47 ± 2.2 % of initial mass, compared to 37 ± 5.8 % for invasive litter and 50 ± 5.1 % for native litter. This non-additive effect of mixing native and invasive litter suggests that an additive model of metabolic characteristics may not suffice for predicting invasion impacts in a community context, particularly as invasion proceeds over time. Because the more rapid decomposition of invasive litter tends to slow to rates typical of native species when native and invasive litters are mixed together, there may be little impact of invasive species on nutrient cycling early in an invasion, when native leaf litter is abundant (providing litter deposition is the dominant control on nutrient cycling).

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Niche complementarity due to plasticity in resource use: plant partitioning of chemical N forms.

Niche complementarity, in which coexisting species use different forms of a resource, has been widely invoked to explain some of the most debated patterns in ecology, including maintenance of diversity and relationships between diversity and ecosystem function. However, classical models assume resource specialization in the form of distinct niches, which does not obviously apply to the broadly overlapping resource use in plant communities. Here we utilize an experimental framework based on competition theory to test whether plants partition resources via classical niche differentiation or via plasticity in resource use. We explore two alternatives: niche preemption, in which individuals respond to a superior competitor by switching to an alternative, less-used resource, and dominant plasticity, in which superior competitors exhibit high resource use plasticity and shift resource use depending on the competitive environment. We determined competitive ability by measuring growth responses with and without neighbors over a growing season and then used 15N tracer techniques to measure uptake of different nitrogen (N) forms in a field setting. We show that four alpine plant species of differing competitive abilities have statistically indistinguishable uptake patterns (nitrate > ammonium > glycine) in their fundamental niche (without competitors) but differ in whether they shift these uptake patterns in their realized niche (with competitors). Competitively superior species increased their uptake of the most available N form, ammonium, when in competition with the rarer, competitively inferior species. In contrast, the competitively inferior species did not alter its N uptake pattern in competition. The existence of plasticity in resource use among the dominant species provides a mechanism that helps to explain the manner by which plant species with broadly overlapping resource use might coexist.

Author Correction: Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities.

In the version of this Article originally published, the following sentence was missing from the Acknowledgements: "This work was supported by the Norwegian Research Council SnoEco project, grant number 230970". This text has now been added.

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities.

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.