The Ki67 dilemma: investigating prognostic cut-offs and reproducibility for automated Ki67 scoring in breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Quantification of Ki67 in breast cancer is a well-established prognostic and predictive marker, but inter-laboratory variability has hampered its clinical usefulness. This study compares the prognostic value and reproducibility of Ki67 scoring using four automated, digital image analysis (DIA) methods and two manual methods. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 367 patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2004, with hormone receptor positive, HER2 negative, lymph node negative breast cancer. Manual scoring of Ki67 was performed using predefined criteria. DIA Ki67 scoring was performed using QuPath and Visiopharm® platforms. Reproducibility was assessed by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). ROC curve survival analysis identified optimal cutoff values in addition to recommendations by the International Ki67 Working Group and Norwegian Guidelines. Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test and Cox regression analysis assessed the association between Ki67 scoring and distant metastasis (DM) free survival. RESULTS: The manual hotspot and global scoring methods showed good agreement when compared to their counterpart DIA methods (ICC > 0.780), and good to excellent agreement between different DIA hotspot scoring platforms (ICC 0.781-0.906). Different Ki67 cutoffs demonstrate significant DM-free survival (p < 0.05). DIA scoring had greater prognostic value for DM-free survival using a 14% cutoff (HR 3.054-4.077) than manual scoring (HR 2.012-2.056). The use of a single cutoff for all scoring methods affected the distribution of prediction outcomes (e.g. false positives and negatives). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that DIA scoring of Ki67 is superior to manual methods, but further study is required to standardize automated, DIA scoring and definition of a clinical cut-off.

Automated Prognostic Assessment of Endometrial Hyperplasia for Progression Risk Evaluation Using Artificial Intelligence.

Endometrial hyperplasia is a precursor to endometrial cancer, characterized by excessive proliferation of glands that is distinguishable from normal endometrium. Current classifications define 2 types of EH, each with a different risk of progression to endometrial cancer. However, these schemes are based on visual assessments and, therefore, subjective, possibly leading to overtreatment or undertreatment. In this study, we developed an automated artificial intelligence tool (ENDOAPP) for the measurement of morphologic and cytologic features of endometrial tissue using the software Visiopharm. The ENDOAPP was used to extract features from whole-slide images of PAN-CK+-stained formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue sections from 388 patients diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia between 1980 and 2007. Follow-up data were available for all patients (mean = 140 months). The most prognostic features were identified by a logistic regression model and used to assign a low-risk or high-risk progression score. Performance of the ENDOAPP was assessed for the following variables: images from 2 different scanners (Hamamatsu XR and S60) and automated placement of a region of interest versus manual placement by an operator. Then, the performance of the application was compared with that of current classification schemes: WHO94, WHO20, and EIN, and the computerized-morphometric risk classification method: D-score. The most significant prognosticators were percentage stroma and the standard deviation of the lesser diameter of epithelial nuclei. The ENDOAPP had an acceptable discriminative power with an area under the curve of 0.765. Furthermore, strong to moderate agreement was observed between manual operators (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.828) and scanners (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.791). Comparison of the prognostic capability of each classification scheme revealed that the ENDOAPP had the highest accuracy of 88%-91% alongside the D-score method (91%). The other classification schemes had an accuracy between 83% and 87%. This study demonstrated the use of computer-aided prognosis to classify progression risk in EH for improved patient treatment.

Supersaturation and Precipitation Applicated in Drug Delivery Systems: Development Strategies and Evaluation Approaches.

Supersaturation is a promising strategy to improve gastrointestinal absorption of poorly water-soluble drugs. Supersaturation is a metastable state and therefore dissolved drugs often quickly precipitate again. Precipitation inhibitors can prolong the metastable state. Supersaturating drug delivery systems (SDDS) are commonly formulated with precipitation inhibitors, hence the supersaturation is effectively prolonged for absorption, leading to improved bioavailability. This review summarizes the theory of and systemic insight into supersaturation, with the emphasis on biopharmaceutical aspects. Supersaturation research has developed from the generation of supersaturation (pH-shift, prodrug and SDDS) and the inhibition of precipitation (the mechanism of precipitation, the character of precipitation inhibitors and screening precipitation inhibitors). Then, the evaluation approaches to SDDS are discussed, including in vitro, in vivo and in silico studies and in vitro-in vivo correlations. In vitro aspects involve biorelevant medium, biomimetic apparatus and characterization instruments; in vivo aspects involve oral absorption, intestinal perfusion and intestinal content aspiration and in silico aspects involve molecular dynamics simulation and pharmacokinetic simulation. More physiological data of in vitro studies should be taken into account to simulate the in vivo environment. The supersaturation theory should be further completed, especially with regard to physiological conditions.

MiR-18a and miR-18b are expressed in the stroma of oestrogen receptor alpha negative breast cancers.

BACKGROUND: Previously, we have shown that miR-18a and miR-18b gene expression strongly correlates with high proliferation, oestrogen receptor -negativity (ER-), cytokeratin 5/6 positivity and basal-like features of breast cancer. METHODS: We investigated the expression and localization of miR-18a and -18b in formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue from lymph node negative breast cancers (n = 40), by chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH). The expression level and in situ localization of miR-18a and -18b was assessed with respect to the presence of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and immunohistochemical markers for ER, CD4, CD8, CD20, CD68, CD138, PAX5 and actin. Furthermore, in two independent breast cancer cohorts (94 and 377 patients) the correlation between miR-18a and -18b expression and the relative quantification of 22 immune cell types obtained from the CIBERSORT tool was assessed. RESULTS: CISH demonstrated distinct and specific cytoplasmic staining for both miR-18a and miR-18b, particularly in the intratumoural stroma and the stroma surrounding the tumour margin. Staining by immunohistochemistry revealed some degree of overlap of miR-18a and -18b with CD68 (monocytes/macrophages), CD138 (plasma cells) and the presence of high percentages of TILs. CIBERSORT analysis showed a strong correlation between M1-macrophages and CD4+ memory activated T-cells with mir-18a and -18b. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that miR-18a and miR-18b expression is associated with ER- breast tumours that display a high degree of inflammation. This expression is potentially associated specifically with macrophages. These results suggest that miR-18a and miR-18b may play a role in the systemic immunological response in ER- tumours.

Influence of pre-operative oral carbohydrate loading vs. standard fasting on tumor proliferation and clinical outcome in breast cancer patients ─ a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting results have been reported on the influence of carbohydrates in breast cancer. OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of pre-operative per-oral carbohydrate load on proliferation in breast tumors. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. SETTING: University hospital with primary and secondary care functions in South-West Norway. PATIENTS: Sixty-one patients with operable breast cancer from a population-based cohort. INTERVENTION: Per-oral carbohydrate load (preOp™) 18 and 2-4 h before surgery (n = 26) or standard pre-operative fasting with free consumption of tap water (n = 35). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was post-operative tumor proliferation measured by the mitotic activity index (MAI). The secondary outcomes were changes in the levels of serum insulin, insulin-c-peptide, glucose, IGF-1, and IGFBP3; patients' well-being, and clinical outcome over a median follow-up of 88 months (range 33-97 months). RESULTS: In the estrogen receptor (ER) positive subgroup (n = 50), high proliferation (MAI ≥ 10) occurred more often in the carbohydrate group (CH) than in the fasting group (p = 0.038). The CH group was more frequently progesterone receptor (PR) negative (p = 0.014). The CH group had a significant increase in insulin (+ 24.31 mIE/L, 95% CI 15.34 mIE/L to 33.27 mIE/L) and insulin c-peptide (+ 1.39 nM, 95% CI 1.03 nM to 1.77 nM), but reduced IGFBP3 levels (- 0.26 nM; 95% CI - 0.46 nM to - 0.051 nM) compared to the fasting group. CH-intervention ER-positive patients had poorer relapse-free survival (73%) than the fasting group (100%; p = 0.012; HR = 9.3, 95% CI, 1.1 to 77.7). In the ER-positive patients, only tumor size (p = 0.021; HR = 6.07, 95% CI 1.31 to 28.03) and the CH/fasting subgrouping (p = 0.040; HR = 9.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 77.82) had independent prognostic value. The adverse clinical outcome of carbohydrate loading occurred only in T2 patients with relapse-free survival of 100% in the fasting group vs. 33% in the CH group (p = 0.015; HR = inf). The CH group reported less pain on days 5 and 6 than the control group (p <  0.001) but otherwise exhibited no factors related to well-being. LIMITATION: Only applicable to T2 tumors in patients with ER-positive breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-operative carbohydrate load increases proliferation and PR-negativity in ER-positive patients and worsens clinical outcome in ER-positive T2 patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CliniTrials.gov; NCT03886389. Retrospectively registered March 22, 2019.

Metabolic consequences of perioperative oral carbohydrates in breast cancer patients - an explorative study.

BACKGROUND: The metabolic consequences of preoperative carbohydrate load in breast cancer patients are not known. The present explorative study investigated the systemic and tumor metabolic changes after preoperative per-oral carbohydrate load and their influence on tumor characteristics and survival. METHODS: The study setting was on university hospital level with primary and secondary care functions in south-west Norway. Serum and tumor tissue were sampled from a population-based cohort of 60 patients with operable breast cancer who were randomized to either per-oral carbohydrate load (preOp™; n = 25) or standard pre-operative fasting (n = 35) before surgery. Magnetic resonance (MR) metabolomics was performed on serum samples from all patients and high-resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) MR analysis on 13 tumor samples available from the fasting group and 16 tumor samples from the carbohydrate group. RESULTS: Fourteen of 28 metabolites were differently expressed between fasting and carbohydrate groups. Partial least squares discriminant analysis showed a significant difference in the metabolic profile between the fasting and carbohydrate groups, compatible with the endocrine effects of insulin (i.e., increased serum-lactate and pyruvate and decreased ketone bodies and amino acids in the carbohydrate group). Among ER-positive tumors (n = 18), glutathione was significantly elevated in the carbohydrate group compared to the fasting group (p = 0.002), with a positive correlation between preoperative S-insulin levels and the glutathione content in tumors (r = 0.680; p = 0.002). In all tumors (n = 29), glutamate was increased in tumors with high proliferation (t-test; p = 0.009), independent of intervention group. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between tumor size and proliferation markers in the carbohydrate group only. Patients with ER-positive / T2 tumors and high tumor glutathione (≥1.09), high S-lactate (≥56.9), and high S-pyruvate (≥12.5) had inferior clinical outcomes regarding relapse-free survival, breast cancer-specific survival, and overall survival. Moreover, Integrated Pathway Analysis (IPA) in serum revealed activation of five major anabolic metabolic networks contributing to proliferation and growth. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative carbohydrate load increases systemic levels of lactate and pyruvate and tumor levels of glutathione and glutamate in ER-positive patients. These biological changes may contribute to the inferior clinical outcomes observed in luminal T2 breast cancer patients. TRIAL OF REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT03886389. Retrospectively registered March 22, 2019.

Proliferation and immunohistochemistry for p53, CD25 and CK20 in predicting prognosis of non-muscle invasive papillary urothelial carcinomas.

Non-muscle invasive papillary urothelial carcinoma is a prevalent disease with a high recurrence tendency. Good prognostic and reproducible biomarkers for tumor recurrence and disease progression are lacking. Currently, WHO grade and tumor stage are essential in risk stratification and treatment decision-making. Here we present the prognostic value of proliferation markers (Ki67, mitotic activity index (MAI) and PPH3) together with p53, CD25 and CK20 immunohistochemistry (IHC). In this population-based retrospective study, 349 primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancers (NMIBC) were available. MAI and PPH3 were calculated manually according to highly standardized previously described methods, Ki-67 by the semi-automated QPRODIT quantification system, p53 and CD25 by the fully automated digital image analysis program Visipharm® and CK20 with the help of the semi-quantitative immunoreactive score (IRS). Survival analyses with log rank test, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed for all investigated variables. Age and multifocality were the only significant variables for tumor recurrence. All investigated variables, except gender, were significantly associated with stage progression. In multivariate analysis, MAI was the only prognostic variable for stage progression (p<0.001).

Diagnostic and prognostic morphometric features in WHO2003 invasive endometrial stromal tumours.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to determine the value of morphometric features in distinguishing mild and moderate atypia and predicting the recurrence of World Health Organization 2003-defined endometrial stromal sarcoma and highly malignant undifferentiated endometrial sarcoma. METHODS AND RESULTS: Nuclear and cytological size, shape and arrangement were morphometrically evaluated in 41 cases with consensus no/mild (n = 38) or moderate (n = 3) atypia. None of the cases showed necrosis. The prognostic value of these features in predicting recurrence was also assessed. Seven features differed. The mean and standard deviation of the nuclear volume and the distance between the nuclei were the best discriminators between the no/mild and moderate atypia, with the maximum of the nuclear volume being a practically and rapidly evaluable alternative. With the use of these features, all mild and moderate atypias were correctly classified. Seven cases recurred. The distance between the nuclei and the percentage of nuclei with one neighbour (assessed with morphometric minimum spanning tree analysis) predicted recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In invasive endometrial stromal tumours, morphometric features are useful diagnostic support tools for distinguishing mild from moderate atypia and predicting recurrence.

Prognostic indicators in WHO 2003 low-grade endometrial stromal sarcoma.

AIMS: Endometrial stromal sarcoma (ESS) has traditionally been divided into low and high grade, but the World Health Organization (WHO, 2003) has changed the definition. Since 2003, many studies have used the old criteria, and few have focused on WHO 2003-defined ESS low grade (ESS-LG). The aim of this study was to investigate prognosticators in ESS-LG. METHODS AND RESULTS: We reviewed the WHO 2003 diagnostic criteria in 91 tumours (previously classified as ESS low and high grade). There were 68 cases of ESS-LG and 23 of undifferentiated endometrial sarcoma (UES). In the ESS-LG cases, the prognostic value of clinicopathological variables was studied. With a median follow-up of 79 months (range: 20-474 months), the recurrence and death rates were 5/68 (7%) and 1/68 (1.5%) in the ESS-LG cases. Ovarian preservation or no ovarian preservation (P < 0.0001, hazard ratio (HR) 10.4) and mitotic activity index (MAI) (0-3 versus >3, P = 0.005, HR 8.6) had independent prognostic value. Other frequently used MAI thresholds - age, tumour diameter, and vessel invasion - were not prognostic. Among patients without ovarian preservation (n = 61), none of 53 with MAI 0-3 suffered recurrence, contrasting with two of eight (25%) of those with MAI >3 (P = 0.003); one of these two recurrence patients died (P = 0.02). Among patients with ovarian preservation (n = 7), three (43%) suffered recurrence but none died, and MAI had no additional prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: In ESS-LG, ovarian preservation and MAI >3 are associated with increased risk of recurrence.

Prognostic value of the diagnostic criteria distinguishing endometrial stromal sarcoma, low grade from undifferentiated endometrial sarcoma, 2 entities within the invasive endometrial stromal neoplasia family.

The World Health Organization (WHO 2003) recognizes 3 endometrial stromal neoplasms: noninvasive endometrial stromal nodule and the 2 invasive neoplasms, endometrial stromal sarcoma (ESS), low grade and undifferentiated endometrial sarcoma (UES). It is important to note that the WHO 2003 does not define moderate atypia (an important differentiating diagnostic criterion for ESS, low grade and UES), nor does it discuss its significance. Moreover, studies on reproducibility and additional prognostic value of other diagnostic features in large are lacking. Using strict definitions, we analyzed the agreement between routine and expert-review necrosis and nuclear atypia in 91 invasive endometrial stromal neoplasias (IESN). The overall 5-year and 10-year recurrence-free survival rate estimates of the 91 IESN patients were 82% and 75%, respectively. Necrosis was well reproducible, and nuclear atypia was reasonably well reproducible. The 10-year recurrence-free survival rates for necrosis absent/inconspicuous versus prominent were 89% and 45% (P<0.001) and those for review-confirmed none/mild, moderate, severe atypia were 90%, 30%, and <20% (P<0.00001). Therefore, cases with moderate/severe atypia should be grouped together. Nuclear atypia and necrosis had independent prognostic values (Cox regression). Once these features were taken into account, no other feature had an independent additional prognostic value, including mitotic count. Using "none/mild atypia, necrosis absent/inconspicuous" as ESS, low grade versus "moderate/severe atypia present or necrosis present" as UES resulted in 68 ESS, low grade and 23 UES cases with disease-specific overall mortality-free survival of 99% versus 48% (P<0.00001, hazard ratio=45.4). When strictly defined microscopic criteria are used, the WHO 2003 diagnoses of ESS, low grade and UES are well reproducible and prognostically strong.

Stages I to II WHO 2003-defined low-grade endometrial stromal sarcoma: how much primary therapy is needed and how little is enough?

OBJECTIVE: Before 2003, invasive endometrial stromal sarcomas (ESS) were classified into 2 categories, low-grade and high-grade ESS, according to the mitotic index. In 2003, the World Health Organization changed the definition and the diagnostic criteria. Before 2003, 20% to 35% low-grade ESS recurred, but WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS has 10 years' recurrence rates of less than 10%. With so few recurrences, the balance between treatment guaranteeing cure and overtreatment ("not too little" or "too much") becomes increasingly important. However, primary treatment practices range from limited surgery only to extensive surgery combined with adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. We focused on the primary treatment of early-stage WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of different therapeutic strategies in 57 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics 2009 stages I to II expert-reviewed WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS treated at a single institution between 1992 and 2007. RESULTS: The patients' median age was 43 years (range, 19-63 years). After 68 months' median follow-up (range, 17-140 months), recurrence and mortality rates were 9% and 2%, respectively. The patients with WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS with ovary-preserving primary surgery had a much higher recurrence rate (75%) than those without (2%; P < 0.0001). Lymphadenectomy, radical abdominal hysterectomy, and omentectomy did not influence survival. Ten patients refused chemotherapy. With univariate analysis, multiple-agent chemotherapy improved the prognosis (P = 0.02) With multivariate analysis, only ovary preservation-or-not surgery had independent prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: In International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics 2009 stage I to stage II WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS, total abdominal hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy is sufficient surgery, but ovary-preserving primary surgery increases the risk of recurrence. More extensive surgical procedures than total abdominal hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy do not improve prognosis in early-stage WHO 2003-defined low-grade ESS. Chemotherapy may improve progression-free survival in early-stage low-grade ESS, but a large sample size is needed to confirm this.

Prognostic comparison of the proliferation markers (mitotic activity index, phosphohistone H3, Ki67), steroid receptors, HER2, high molecular weight cytokeratins and classical prognostic factors in T1₋2N0M0 breast cancer.

The proliferation factors: mitotic activity index (MAI), phosphohistone H3 (PPH3) and Ki67 have strong prognostic value in early breast cancer but their independent value to each other and other prognostic factors has not been evaluated. In 237 T1₋2N0M0 breast cancers without systemic adjuvant treatment, formalized MAI assessment and strictly standardized, fully automated quantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) for Ki67, PPH3, estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR), HER2, cytokeratins-5/6 and -14, and automated digital image analysis (DIA) for measuring PPH3 and Ki67 were performed. Section thickness was measured to further control IHC measurements. All features were measured in the periphery of tumors. The different proliferation assessments and other well-established clinicopathological and biomarker prognostic factors were compared. DIA-Ki67 added prognostically to PPH3. None of the other biomarkers or clinicopathological variables added prognostically to this PPH3/Ki67 combination. However, when PPH3 is replaced by MAI the prognostic value is nearly the same. In early operable node negative breast cancer without adjuvant systemic treatment, Ki67 with a threshold of 6.5% assessed by digital image analysis in the periphery of the tumor is prognostically strong. The combination of either PPH3/Ki67 or MAI/Ki67 overshadowed the prognostic value of all other features including Ki67 alone.

In stage IV pulmonary adenocarcinoma patients, treatment with Traditional Chinese Medicine alone gives prognostically superior results to treatment with Platinum-Based Chemotherapy alone.

BACKGROUND: About 30% of pulmonary stage IV adenocarcinomas die within 3 months of diagnosis. Western medical treatments with Platinum-Based Chemotherapy=PBC and tyrosine-kinase inhibitors Targeted Therapy=TT can improve prognosis. In China, Traditional Chinese Medicine herbal treatments (TCM) are often used in addition to PBC and TT. A considerable number of patients refuse Western medical treatments and use TCM alone. However, the survival impact of the latter is unknown. HYPOTHESES TESTED: Treatment with TCM alone is prognostically superior to PBC alone. Addition of PBC or TT or both TT to TCM improves survival. METHODS: In this prospective observational, non-interventional study of 1017 consecutive first-onset stage IV NSCLC patients with up to 10 years follow-up, 261 who Died of Disease (DOD) within 3 months were omitted, as they never got the optimal Western medical therapies. All 218 non-adenocarcinomas were also omitted, leaving 538 stage IV adenocarcinomas treated by TCM alone (n = 29), PBC alone (N = 19) and TCM and other Western medical combinations (299 TCM and PBC, 50 TCM and TT, 141 TCM and PBC and TT) with 3 - 120 months follow-up. Survivals were compared using Alive with Disease (AWD) and DOD as endpoints. RESULTS: The patients treated only with TCM had 7 months better median survival than those that received PBC alone (17 and 10 months). The patients that received TCM and PBC had a better median survival (24 months) than TCM alone and much better than PBC alone. None of the patients that received TCM alone survived > 54 months, whereas 18% of TCM and PBC patients survived much longer. Over the observation period of 3 - 120 months, survivals of TCM and TT, TCM and PBC and TT, and TCM and PBC were not different and therefore grouped as TCM and Western medicines. Median survival times of PBC alone and TCM alone were lower than that of TCM and Western medical treatments (p < 0.0001, 10, 17 and 27 months). CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary stage IV adenocarcinoma patients with at least 3 months survival, treated with TCM alone have a significantly better survival than those treated with PBC alone. Adding Western PBC, TT or both to TCM further improves prognosis.

The prognostic value of MARCKS-like 1 in lymph node-negative breast cancer.

There is a need for new biomarkers to more correctly identify node-negative breast cancer patients with a good or bad prognosis. Myristoylated alanine-rich C kinase substrate like-1 (MARCKSL1) is a membrane-bound protein that is associated with cell spreading, integrin activation and exocytosis. Three hundred and five operable T(1,2)N(0)M(0) lymph node-negative breast cancer patients (median follow-up time 121 months, range 10-178 months) were evaluated for MARCKSL1 expression by immunohistochemistry and quantitative real-time PCR. The results were compared with classical prognosticators (age, tumor diameter, grade, estrogen receptor, and proliferation), using single (Kaplan-Meier) and multivariate survival analysis (Cox model). Forty-seven patients (15 %) developed distant metastases. With single and multivariate analysis of all features, MARCKSL1 protein expression was the strongest prognosticator (P < 0.001, HR = 5.1, 95 % CI = 2.7-9.8). Patients with high MARCKSL1 expression (n = 23) showed a 44 % survival versus 88 % in patients with low expression at 15-year follow-up. mRNA expression of MARCKSL1 in formalin fixed paraffin-embedded tissue was also prognostic (P = 0.002, HR = 3.6, 95 % CI = 1.5-8.3). However, the prognostic effect of high and low was opposite from the protein expression, i.e., low expression (relative expression ≤ 0.0264, n = 76) showed a 79 % survival versus 92 % in those with high expression of MARCKSL1 mRNA. Multivariate analysis of all features with distant metastases free survival as the end-point showed that the combination of MARCKSL1 protein and phosphohistone H3 (PPH3) has the strongest independent prognostic value. Patients with high expression (≥13) of PPH3 and high MARCKSL1 protein had 45 % survival versus 78 % survival for patients with low MARCKSL1 protein expression and high expression (≥13) of PPH3. In conclusion, MARCKSL1 has strong prognostic value in lymph node-negative breast cancer patients, especially in those with high proliferation.

Comparison of the effect of different techniques for measurement of Ki67 proliferation on reproducibility and prognosis prediction accuracy in breast cancer.

AIMS: The proliferation factor Ki67 is prognostic in breast cancer and included in international therapy guidelines, but measurement procedures differ between laboratories. We compared the reproducibility and prognostic value of different Ki67 sampling and measurement methods. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 237 T(1,2) N(0) M(0) breast cancers without adjuvant systemic treatment, strictly standardized section thickness, automated antigen retrieval and immunohistochemistry were used. The percentages of Ki67-positive nuclei were assessed using (i) a 'quick-scan rapid estimate', (ii) ocular-square-guided counts by independent pathologists, (iii) computerized point-grid-sampling interactive morphometry (CIM) and (iv) automated digital image analysis (DIA). Quick-scan rapid estimates were poorly reproducible. The optimal prognostic thresholds of Ki67 counts by two pathologists differed greatly (4%, 14%; kappa: 0.36), with many therapeutic differences. CIM-Ki67 and DIA-Ki67 were strongly prognostic (P<0.0001) and reproducible. DIA-Ki67 (threshold: 6.5%) was the strongest and most robust prognosticator (the threshold could vary from 4 to 15% without significant prognostic loss). Ki67 was prognostically strongest in the periphery of the tumour. CONCLUSION: In node-negative breast cancer without adjuvant systemic treatment, Ki67% by DIA, but not subjective counts, is reproducible and prognostically strong. This casts serious doubt on therapeutic guidelines using subjective counts of Ki67.

Interaction of epithelial biomarkers, local immune response and condom use in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2-3 regression.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2-3 (CIN2-3) are usually treated by cone excision, although only 30% progress to cancer and 6-50% regress spontaneously. Biomarkers predicting CIN2-3 regression would be of great clinical value and could reduce unnecessary cone excision and associated complications. The aim of this study was to investigate whether punch-biopsy derived immunohistochemical biomarkers, local immune response, CIN lesion size and condom use are independently correlated to regression of CIN2-3. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 162 women aged 25-40, with first-time onset diagnosis of CIN2-3 in colposcopy-directed biopsies was carried out. The median biopsy-cone interval was 16 weeks. Regression was defined as CIN1 or less in the cone biopsy. RESULTS: The regression rate was 21% (34/162). pRb>30% in the lower epithelial half was the strongest predictor for regression (30% regression, p<0.0001). If additionally a CIN-lesion was smaller than 2.5mm and CD4+ lymphoid cells in the subepithelial stroma ≤ 195 per 1.04 mm basal membrane, the regression rate was 53%. In CIN-lesions>2.5mm and CD4+-stroma ≤195, consistent condom use increased the regression rate from 13% to 67% (p=0.003). If pRb was ≤30%, the regression rate was low (6%). CONCLUSION: Biomarkers and CIN lesion length can predict CIN2-3 regression, and might be helpful to identify patients who can increase the regression rate of CIN lesions by consistent condom use.

Clinical and Biological Interpretation of Survival Curves of Cancer Patients, Exemplified With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers With Long Follow-up.

Worldwide, 18.1 million new invasive cancers and 9.9 million cancer deaths occurred in 2020. Lung cancer is the second most frequent (11.4%) and, with 1.8 million deaths, remains the leading cause of cancer mortality. About 1.7 million of lung cancers are of the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) subtype, and of these, 60%-70% are in advanced stage IV at the time of diagnosis. Thus, the annual worldwide number of new NSCLC stage IV patients is about 1 million, and they have a very poor prognosis. Indeed, 25%-30% die within 3 months of diagnosis. However, the survival duration of the remaining 700,000 new patients per year surviving >3 months varies enormously. Surprisingly, little research has been done to explain these survival differences, but recently it was found that classical patient, tumour and treatment features cannot accurately distinguish short- and very long-term survivors. What then are the causes of these bewildering survival variations amongst "the same cancers"? Clonality, proliferation differences, neovascularization, intra-tumour heterogeneity, genetic inhomogeneity and other cancer hallmarks play important roles. Considering each of these, single or combined, can greatly improve our understanding. Another technique is analysis of the survival curve of a seemingly homogeneous group of cancer patients. This can give valuable information about the existence of subgroups and their biological characteristics. Different basic survival curves and what their shapes tell about the biological properties of these invasive cancers are discussed. Application of this analysis technique to the survival curve of 690 stage IV NSCLC patients with a 3.2-120.0-month survival suggests that this seemingly homogeneously group of patients probably consists of 4-8 subgroups with a very different survival. A subsequent detailed mathematical analysis shows that a model of 8 subgroups gives a very good match with the original survival curve of the whole group. In conclusion, the survival curve of a seemingly homogeneous group of cancer patients can give valuable information about the existence of subgroups and their biological characteristics. Application of this technique to 690 NSCLC Stage IV patients makes it probable that 8 different subgroups with very different survival rates exist in this group of cancers.

Mitotic activity and bone marrow micrometastases have independent prognostic value in node positive breast cancer patients.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the prognostic value of the mitotic activity index (MAI) and the presence of disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) in bone marrow (BM), in clinically operable breast cancer patients. We compared routinely assessed MAI, classic prognosticators and BM DTCs, detected by a real-time RT-PCR multimarker assay including cytokeratin 19, mammaglobin A and TWIST1 mRNA, in 179 consecutive patients with operable breast cancer. Over a median follow-up of 96 months (range: 1-126 months), 31 (17.3%) patients experienced a systemic relapse and 26 (14.5%) died of breast cancer-related causes. MAI (≥ 10) was strongly associated with breast cancer-related death in lymph node (LN)-negative patients (hazard ratio (HR): 7.0, confidence interval (CI) 1.74-27.9), whereas both BM DTC-status (HR: 3.3, CI 1.25-8.52) and MAI (HR: 3.1, CI 1.08-8.8) were significant in LN-positive patients. With multivariate Cox regression, MAI was the only significant predictor of breast cancer-specific survival (HR 7.0, CI 1.7-27.9) in LN-negative patients. In LN-positive patients, both BM DTC-status and MAI were strong independent predictors of breast cancer-specific survival (HR 3.3, CI 1.25-8.49 and HR 3.1, CI 1.1-8.9), respectively. Where, however, MAI and BM DTC-status as single parameters were replaced by a combination of these, this showed to be the most significant prognostic marker in both LN-negative (HR 7.7, CI 1.2-50) and LN-positive (HR 6.0, CI 1.4 to 26.4) patients with regard to breast cancer-specific survival. A combination of MAI and BM DTC detection identified both LN-negative and LN-positive breast cancer patients with poor prognosis.

D2-40/p63 defined lymph vessel invasion has additional prognostic value in highly proliferating operable node negative breast cancer patients.

Phosphohistone H3 assessed proliferation has strong prognostic value. Lymph vessel invasion by D2-40 is also prognostic, but D2-40+ myoepithelial expression in small ducts completely filled by solid-pattern ductal carcinoma in situ can mimic lymphovascular invasion. As myoepithelial cells are also p63 positive, we have investigated whether lymph vessel invasion identified by combined D2-40/p63 is stronger prognostically than by D2-40 alone, and whether it has independent prognostic value to phosphohistone H3. In 240 operable T(1-2)N(0)M(0) node negative invasive breast cancer patients <71 years, phosphohistone H3 was determined by quantitative immunohistochemistry and lymph vessel invasion by D2-40/p63 double immunostaining. Correlation analysis between the clinico-pathologic factors and lymph vessel invasion, and univariate and multivariate prognostic survival analysis were performed. With median 117 (range: 12-192) months follow-up, 36 patients (15%) developed and 28 (12%) died of distant metastases. Ten of the 61 patients (16%) with cancer cells surrounded by D2-40 were p63 positive and none of these 'false lymph vessel invasion' recurred. D2-40+/p63- lymph vessel invasion occurred in 51/239 (21%) cases and correlated with grade, mitotic activity index, phosphohistone H3, ER, cytokeratin14, and HER2. D2-40+/p63- lymph vessel invasion was strongly prognostic, but far more in women ≥55 than those <55 years (P<0.0001 and 0.04). With multivariate analysis, phosphohistone H3 proliferation was the strongest single prognosticator. Lymph vessel invasion had additional prognostic value to phosphohistone H3 only in women ≥55. This group of patients, without/with lymph vessel invasion, had 10-year survival rates of 83 and 50%, respectively (hazard ratio-lymph vessel invasion=3.0, P=0.04; hazard ratio-phosphohistone H3=6.9, P=0.002). Where age was <55 years, only phosphohistone H3 had independent prognostic value. Combinations of other features had no additional value. In conclusion, T(1-2)N(0)M(0) invasive breast cancer patients ≥55 years with phosphohistone H3≥13, D2-40+/p63- defined lymph vessel invasion identifies a subgroup with a high risk of distant metastases.

Comparison of different commercial methods for HPV detection in follow-up cytology after ASCUS/LSIL, prediction of CIN2-3 in follow up biopsies and spontaneous regression of CIN2-3.

OBJECTIVE: Different Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) tests are currently used. An integrated comparison of the Amplicor, Cobas4800, PreTect HPV-Proofer and APTIMA HPV tests has not been done. METHODS: We compared the high-risk HPV detection power of these HPV tests in 528 consecutive population-based follow-up Liquid-Based Cytology samples (LBC) after ASCUS/LSIL index cytology. Their sensitivity and specificity to detect HPV in LBC, their predictive values of histopathologic CIN2-3 in follow-up punch biopsies and CIN2-3 regression in the subsequent cones was assessed. The HPV subtypes detected by the Linear Array genotyping-test (LA), PreTect HPV-Proofer and Cobas4800 were also compared. The follow-up histopathology was consensus expert-reviewed and Ki67/p16-supported. The predictive values of the HPV results in LBC by the different tests for presence of CIN2-3 in follow-up biopsies, and regression in subsequent cones, was assessed. RESULTS: Amplicor, Cobas4800 and APTIMA show good agreement for HPV-positivity/negativity. PreTect HPV-Proofer has many discrepancies versus any of the other methods. The sensitivities for Amplicor, Cobas4800 and APTIMA to detect CIN2-3 were very high (96-100%), but rather low for PreTect HPV-Proofer (53%). Specificity in case of CIN1 or less in follow-up biopsies of Amplicor and Cobas4800 is lower than APTIMA and highest for PreTect HPV-Proofer. HPV subtyping by LA agreed in 90% with Cobas4800 but 70% with PreTect HPV-Proofer. CONCLUSIONS: The Amplicor, Cobas4800 and APTIMA give comparable results but PreTect HPV-Proofer differs from the other tests, with low sensitivity but higher specificity. None of the methods predicted regression of CIN2-3.