Growing old in China in socioeconomic and epidemiological context: systematic review of social care policy for older people.

BACKGROUND: From 2020 to 2050, China's population aged ≥65 years old is estimated to more than double from 172 million (12·0%) to 366 million (26·0%). Some 10 million have Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, to approach 40 million by 2050. Critically, the population is ageing fast while China is still a middle-income country. METHODS: Using official and population-level statistics, we summarise China's demographic and epidemiological trends relevant to ageing and health from 1970 to present, before examining key determinants of China's improving population health in a socioecological framework. We then explore how China is responding to the care needs of its older population by carrying out a systematic review to answer the question: 'what are the key policy challenges to China achieving an equitable nationwide long-term care system for older people?'. Databases were screened for records published between 1st June 2020 and 1st June 2022 in Mandarin Chinese or English, reflecting our focus on evidence published since introduction of China's second long-term care insurance pilot phase in 2020. RESULTS: Rapid economic development and improved access to education has led to widescale internal migration. Changing fertility policies and household structures also pose considerable challenges to the traditional family care model. To deal with increasing need, China has piloted 49 alternative long-term care insurance systems. Our findings from 42 studies (n = 16 in Mandarin) highlight significant challenges in the provision of quality and quantity of care which suits the preference of users, varying eligibility for long-term care insurance and an inequitable distribution of cost burden. Key recommendations include increasing salaries to attract and retain staff, introduction of mandatory financial contributions from employees and a unified standard of disability with regular assessment. Strengthening support for family caregivers and improving smart old age care capacity can also support preferences to age at home. CONCLUSIONS: China has yet to establish a sustainable funding mechanism, standardised eligibility criteria and a high-quality service delivery system. Its long-term care insurance pilot studies provide useful lessons for other middle-income countries facing similar challenges in terms of meeting the long-term care needs of their rapidly growing older populations.

StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia are common stroke outcomes, with significant health and societal implications for aging populations. These outcomes are not included in current epidemiological models. We aimed to develop an epidemiological model to project incidence and prevalence of stroke, poststroke CIND and dementia, and life expectancy, in Ireland to 2035, informing policy and service planning. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (the StrokeCog model) applied to the Irish population aged 40 to 89 years to 2035. Data sources included official population and hospital-episode statistics, longitudinal cohort studies, and published estimates. Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Results were externally validated against independent sources. The model tracks poststroke progression into health states characterized by no cognitive impairment, CIND, dementia, disability, stroke recurrence, and death. RESULTS: We projected 69 051 people with prevalent stroke in Ireland in 2035 (22.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 20.8-23.1]), with 25 274 (8.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 7.1-9.0]) of those projected to have poststroke CIND, and 12 442 having poststroke dementia (4.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 3.2-4.8]). We projected 8725 annual incident strokes in 2035 (2.8 per 1000 population [95% CI, 2.7-2.9]), with 3832 of these having CIND (1.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), and 1715 with dementia (0.5 per 1000 population [95% CI, 0.5-0.6]). Life expectancy for stroke survivors at age 50 was 23.4 years (95% CI, 22.3-24.5) for women and 20.7 (95% CI, 19.5-21.9) for men. CONCLUSIONS: This novel epidemiological model of stroke, poststroke CIND, and dementia draws on the best available evidence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that findings were robust to assumptions, and where there was uncertainty a conservative approach was taken. The StrokeCog model is a useful tool for service planning and cost-effectiveness analysis and is available for adaptation to other national contexts.

Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales. METHODS: We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. RESULTS: Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10-15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000-272,200), with 85,900 (71,500-101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900-125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700-237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300-90,800) and 93,300 (76,700-111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.

Cost-Effectiveness of the US Food and Drug Administration Added Sugar Labeling Policy for Improving Diet and Health.

BACKGROUND: Excess added sugars, particularly from sugar-sweetened beverages, are a major risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases including cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In 2016, the US Food and Drug Administration mandated the labeling of added sugar content on all packaged foods and beverages. Yet, the potential health impacts and cost-effectiveness of this policy remain unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model (US IMPACT Food Policy model) was used to estimate cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus cases averted, quality-adjusted life-years, policy costs, health care, informal care, and lost productivity (health-related) savings and cost-effectiveness of 2 policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy (sugar label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (sugar label+reformulation). The model used nationally representative demographic and dietary intake data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, disease data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder Database, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for model parameter uncertainties and population heterogeneity. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2037, the sugar label would prevent 354 400 cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval, 167 000-673 500) and 599 300 (302 400-957 400) diabetes mellitus cases, gain 727 000 (401 300-1 138 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and save $31 billion (15.7-54.5) in net healthcare costs or $61.9 billion (33.1-103.3) societal costs (incorporating reduced lost productivity and informal care costs). For the sugar label+reformulation scenario, corresponding gains were 708 800 (369 200-1 252 000) cardiovascular disease cases, 1.2 million (0.7-1.7) diabetes mellitus cases, 1.3 million (0.8-1.9) quality-adjusted life-years, and $57.6 billion (31.9-92.4) and $113.2 billion (67.3-175.2), respectively. Both scenarios were estimated with >80% probability to be cost saving by 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the US Food and Drug Administration added sugar labeling policy could generate substantial health gains and cost savings for the US population.

Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis.

Distributional cost effectiveness analysis is a new method that can help to redesign prevention programmes by explicitly modelling the distribution of health opportunity costs as well as the distribution of health benefits. Previously we modelled cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening audit data from Liverpool, UK to see if the city could redesign its cardiovascular screening programme to enhance its cost effectiveness and equity. Building on this previous analysis, we explicitly examined the distribution of health opportunity costs and we looked at new redesign options co-designed with stakeholders. We simulated four plausible scenarios: a) no CVD screening, b) 'current' basic universal CVD screening as currently implemented, c) enhanced universal CVD screening with 'increased' population-wide delivery, and d) 'universal plus targeted' with top-up delivery to the most deprived fifth. We also compared assumptions around whether displaced health spend would come from programmes that might benefit the poor more and how much health these programmes would generate. The main outcomes were net health benefit and change in the slope index of inequality (SII) in QALYs per 100,000 person years. 'Universal plus targeted' dominated 'increased' and 'current' and also reduced health inequality by -0.65 QALYs per 100,000 person years. Results are highly sensitive to assumptions about opportunity costs and, in particular, whether funding comes from health care or local government budgets. By analysing who loses as well as who gains from expenditure decisions, distributional cost effectiveness analysis can help decision makers to redesign prevention programmes in ways that improve health and reduce health inequality.

FDA Sodium Reduction Targets and the Food Industry: Are There Incentives to Reformulate? Microsimulation Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD-related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. CONTEXT: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. METHODS: We employed a microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two-year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10-year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close-to-reality populations: food system "ever" workers; food system "current" workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food "ever" and "current" workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. FINDINGS: Among food system ever workers, achieving long-term sodium reduction targets could produce 20-year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $5.2 billion (95% UI: $3.5 billion to $8.3 billion), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $62,000 (95% UI: $1,000 to $171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $1.0 billion (95% UI: $0.7bn to $1.6bn); and ICER, $486,000 (95% UI: $148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.

Prevalence and distribution of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction in treated patients with long-lasting hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Although the presence of sub-clinical left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) increases cardiovascular risk, the current ESH/ESC guidelines do not include the presence of this condition in the list of target organ damage or cardiovascular risk charts dedicated to the hypertensive population. Several conditions may predict the LVDD occurrence, however, clustering of these factors with hypertension makes the relationship less clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate both the occurrence and the severity of diastolic dysfunction in a large cohort of treated hypertensives. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed records of 610 hypertensive participants of the CARE NORTH Study who consented to echocardiography and were free of overt cardiovascular disease. Mean age was 54.0 ± 13.9 years (mean ± SD), BMI 29.7 ± 4.8 kg/m2. The exclusion criteria were: established heart failure, LVEF <45%, coronary revascularization, valvular defect, atrial fibrillation, or stroke. The staging of LVDD was based on comprehensive transthoracic echocardiographic measurements. RESULTS: 49.7% percent of the patients had normal diastolic function (38.8% vs. 59.0%, females (F) vs. males (M), respectively; p < .001). Grade 1 LVDD was documented in 24.4% (27.8% and 21.6%; F and M; p = .08) and grade 2 LVDD in 19.3% (24.9% and 14.6%; F and M; p = .001) of the patients. None were diagnosed with grade 3 LVDD. In the logistic regression model, female sex, advancing age, obesity status, established diabetes mellitus, higher 24-hour SBP, and increasing LVMI were identified as the independent variables increasing the odds for the presence of LVDD, whereas blood-lowering therapy attenuated the risk. CONCLUSIONS: There is an unexpectedly high prevalence of different forms of diastolic dysfunction in treated hypertensive patients who are free of overt cardiovascular disease.

Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a) a national mass media campaign (MMC) aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b) a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c) a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d) a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500) CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500) DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500) DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300) DPPs for a 10% SSB tax. Neither the MMC nor the individual national economic policies would significantly reduce CVD socio-economic disparities. However, the SNAP-targeted intervention might potentially reduce CVD disparities between SNAP participants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, by approximately 8% (10 DPPs per 100,000 population). The combined policy approach might save more lives than any single policy studied (approximately 230,000 DPPs by 2030) while also significantly reducing disparities, by approximately 6% (7 DPPs per 100,000 population). Limitations include our effect estimates in the model; these estimates use interventional and prospective observational studies (not exclusively randomised controlled trials). They are thus imperfect and should be interpreted as the best available evidence. Another key limitation is that we considered only CVD outcomes; the policies we explored would undoubtedly have additional beneficial effects upon other diseases. Further, we did not model or compare the cost-effectiveness of each proposed policy. CONCLUSIONS: Fiscal strategies targeting diet might substantially reduce CVD burdens. A national 10% F&V subsidy would save by far the most lives, while a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants would most reduce socio-economic disparities. A combined policy would have the greatest overall impact on both mortality and socio-economic disparities.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in a representative sample of the Polish population: results of the NATPOL 2011 survey.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been proven to be a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Until now, data on the prevalence of CKD among adults in Poland were limited. The NATPOL 2011 survey is a cross-sectional observational study designed to assess the prevalence and control of CVD risk factors in Poland, and the first study capable of evaluating CKD prevalence in adult Polish citizens. METHODS: Serum creatinine concentration and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were measured in 2413 randomly selected participants (ages 18-79 years) from a national survey study. CKD was diagnosed if the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) with coexisting albuminuria (ACR ≥ 30 mg/g). Additionally, comorbidities and anthropometric and social factors related to the prevalence of CKD were analysed. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD was estimated at 5.8% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.6-7.2] using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula. The general prevalence was higher when the MDRD was applied [6.2% (95% CI 4.0-7.6)]. An eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was found in 1.9% (95% CI 1.5-2.5) of the studied population. This was accompanied by low awareness of this condition (14.9%). The frequency of albuminuria was estimated at 4.5% (95% CI 3.4-5.9). Diabetes mellitus (DM) and arterial hypertension (AH) were more frequent among respondents with diagnosed CKD compared with those without CKD [18.5 versus 4.5% (P < 0.001) and 67.8 versus 29.0% (P < 0.001) respectively]. DM and AH were, apart from increasing age, the two greatest risk factors of CKD. CONCLUSION: The estimated prevalence of CKD among adults in Poland is 5.8% (∼1 724 960 patients). Its prevalence was lower than expected. CKD is more frequent in older subjects, smokers and people with comorbidities such as AH and DM.

Effects of lifestyle-related risk factors on life expectancy: A comprehensive model for use in early prevention of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases.

Morbidity and premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases can be largely prevented by adopting a healthy lifestyle at the earliest possible age. However, tools designed for the early identification of those at risk among young adults are lacking. We developed and validated a multivariable model for the prediction of life expectancy, allowing the early identification of apparently healthy adults at risk of lifestyle-related diseases. We used a cross-sectional approach to calculate life expectancy using data from 38,481 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2014), aged ≥20 years. A multivariable logistic model was used to quantify the impact of risk factors on mortality. The model included the following lifestyle-related mortality risk factors as predictors: smoking, diet, physical activity, and body mass index. The presence of the following chronic diseases was considered: diabetes, arrhythmia, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, and malignant neoplasms. The model showed a good predictive ability; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measure was 0.846 (95% uncertainty interval 0.838-0.859). Life expectancy was determined using the life table method and the period life tables for the US population as the baseline. The results of this model underscore the importance of lifestyle-related risk factors in life expectancy. The difference between life expectancy for 30-year-old individuals with lifestyle characteristics ranked in 90% and 10% of their gender and age groups was 23 years for males and 18 years for females, whereas in 75% and 25%, it was 14 years for males and 10 years for females. In addition to early risk identification, the model estimates the deferred effect of lifestyle and the impact of lifestyle changes on life expectancy. Thus, it can be used in early prevention to demonstrate the potential risks and benefits of complex lifestyle modifications for educational purposes or to motivate behavioral changes.

Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends.

Background: It is unclear how temporal trends in dementia incidence, alongside fast-changing demography, will influence China's future dementia burden. We developed a Markov model that combines population trends in dementia, mortality, and dementia-related comorbidities, to forecast and decompose the burden of dementia in China to 2050. Methods: Population-based Chinese ageing cohorts provided input data for a 10-health-state Markov macrosimulation model, IMPACT-China Ageing Model (CAM), to predict sex- and age-specific dementia prevalence among people aged 50+ by year to 2050. We assumed three potential future scenarios representing the range of likely dementia incidence trends: upward (+2.9%), flat (0%) or downward (-1.0%). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine uncertainty associated with trends in mortality rates and CVD incidence. The projected dementia burden was decomposed into population growth, population ageing, and changing dementia prevalence corresponding to the three incidence trend scenarios. Findings: Under the upward trend scenario, the estimated number of people living with dementia is projected to rise to 66.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 64.7-68.0 million), accounting for 10.4% of the Chinese population aged 50+ by 2050. This large burden will be lower, 43.9 (95% UI 42.9-45.0) million and 37.5 (95% UI 36.5-38.4) million, if dementia incidence remains constant or decreases. Robustness of the projection is confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Decomposition of the change in projected dementia cases indicates dominate effects of increasing dementia prevalence and population ageing, and a relatively minor contribution from negative population growth. Interpretation: Our findings highlight an impending surge in dementia cases in China in the forthcoming decades if the upward trend in dementia incidence continues. Public health interventions geared towards dementia prevention could play a pivotal role in alleviating this burgeoning disease issue. Funding: National Science Foundation of China/UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Dementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity. METHODS: Population-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002-03) to wave 9 (2018-19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002-06, 2004-08, 2006-10, 2008-12, 2010-14, 2012-16, and 2014-18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend. FINDINGS: Incidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03-1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62-1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast. INTERPRETATION: Dementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large. FUNDING: UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Concordance/discordance between serum apolipoprotein B, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol in NATPOL 2011 participants - An epidemiological perspective.

BACKGROUND: The study compared the distribution of serum LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (apoB) among participants of the NATPOL 2011 survey and analysed concordance/discordance of results in the context of the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS: Serum levels of apoB, LDL-C, non-HDL-C and small dense LDL-C were measured/calculated in 2067-2098 survey participants. The results were compared between women and men, age groups and in relation to body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and TG levels, and the presence of CVD. Percentile distribution of lipid levels and concordance/discordance analysis were based on medians and ESC/EAS 2019 target thresholds for ASCVD risk and on comparison of measured apoB levels and levels calculated from linear regression equations with serum LDL- C and non-HDL-C as independent variables. RESULTS: Serum apoB, LDL-C and non-HDL-C were similarly related to sex, age, BMI, visceral obesity, cardiovascular disease, and fasting glucose and triglyceride levels. Serum apoB, LDL-C and non-HDL-C very high- and moderate- target thresholds were exceeded in 83%, 99% and 96.9% and in 41%, 75% and 63.7% of subjects, respectively. The incidence of the discordances between the results depended on the dividing values used and ranged from 0.2% to 45.2% of the respondents. Subjects with high apoB / low LDL-C/non-HDL-C discordance had features of metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic discordances between apoB and LDL-C/non-HDL-C indicate limitations of serum LDL-C/non-HDL-C in ASCVD risk management. Due to the high apoB/low LDL-C/non-HDL-C discordance, obese/metabolic syndrome patients may benefit from replacing LDL-C/non-HDL-C by apoB in ASCVD risk assessment and lipid-lowering therapy.

Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of the impact of public health interventions targeting hypertension usually focus on one health outcome. This study aims to consider the effects of change in future hypertension prevalence on mortality, dementia, and disability simultaneously. METHODS: We modelled three plausible scenarios based on observed trends of hypertension prevalence from 2003 to 2017 in England: observed trends continue (baseline scenario); 2017 prevalence remains unchanged; and 2017 prevalence decreases by 50% by 2060. We used a probabilistic Markov model to integrate calendar trends in incidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast their future occurrence in the population of England and Wales. Assuming the hypertension prevalence trend modifies health transition probabilities, we compared mortality outcomes and the burden of dementia and disability to 2060 for the scenarios. FINDINGS: If the decline in hypertension prevalence stops, there would be a slight increase in the number of additional deaths to 2060 (22·9 [95% uncertainty interval 19·0-26·6] more deaths per 100 000 population), although the burdens of disability and dementia in absolute terms would change little. Alternatively, if the downward hypertension prevalence trend accelerates (with prevalence falling by 50% between 2017 and 2060), there would be a modest additional reduction in deaths (57·0 [50·4-63·5] fewer deaths per 100 000 population), a small increase in dementia burden (9·0 [5·1-13·2] more cases per 100 000 population), no significant effect on disability burden, and an 8% gain in healthy life expectancy at age 65 years from 2020 to 2060 (5·3 years vs 4·9 years) compared with the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: The major future impact of alternative hypertension prevention strategies appears to be on future life expectancy. The salutary effect of lower population blood pressure distribution on incidence of dementia and disability might not offset expansion of the susceptible population due to reduced mortality. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the 65 or over Polish population. Report of cross-sectional NOMED-AF study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, characterized by an increased risk of thromboembolic complications that can be markedly reduced with anticoagulation. There is a paucity of studies assessing the total prevalence of AF in national populations. AIMS: To assess the nationwide prevalence of AF in a population of adults ≥65 old and to determine the impact of duration of electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring on the number of newly detected AF episodes. METHODS: The NOMED-AF study (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT: 0324347) was a cross-sectional study performed on a nationally representative random sample of 3014 Polish citizens 65 years or older. Final estimates were adjusted to the national population. All participants underwent up to 30 days of continuous ECG monitoring. Total AF prevalence was diagnosed based on the patient's medical records or the presence of AF in ECG monitoring. RESULTS: The prevalence of AF in the Polish population ≥65 years was estimated as 19.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-20.6%). This included 4.1% (95% CI, 3.5%-4.8%) newly diagnosed cases and 15.1% (95% CI, 13.9%-16.3%) previously diagnosed cases and consisted of 10.8% (95% CI, 9.8%-11.9%) paroxysmal AF and 8.4% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.4%) persistent/permanent AF. The incidence of all paroxysmal AF events as a function of ECG monitoring duration increased from 1.9% (95% CI, 1.4%-2.6%) at 24 hours to 6.2% (95% CI, 5.3%-7.2%) at 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of AF in elderly adults is higher than estimated based on medical records only. Four weeks of monitoring compared to 24-hour ECG Holter allow detection of 7-fold more cases of previously undiagnosed paroxysmal AF.

Inverse association of serum bilirubin with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in Polish population.

BACKGROUND: Bilirubin has got a potential anti-oxidant, anti-inflammatory and cytoprotective effect. It has been shown that its concentration is inversely related to cardiometabolic diseases. Recent studies have revealed the association between serum bilirubin concentrations and metabolic syndrome (MS) among children and adolescents in U.S. and among Korean adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of total serum bilirubin level with MS and insulin resistance in Poland. METHODS: We examined 1568 patients aged 18 to 93 years. The tested population was a nationally representative sample of Polish adults. They were derived from cross-sectional study, when serum total bilirubin level and risk factors of cardiovascular diseases were determined. RESULTS: The prevalence of MS in bilirubin level quartiles (95% CI in parentheses) was 28.9% (24.5%-33.3%), 32.6% (28.3%-36.9%), 23.4% (19.0%-27.8%), 21.8% (17.5%-26.2%) respectively for quartiles 1-4 (p = 0.002) The multivariate analysis showed odds ratio for MS in third and fourth quartile of bilirubin level equal to 0.70 (0.50-0.99) and 0.68 (0.48-0.95) respectively in comparison to the lowest quartile. The more criteria of metabolic syndrome were fulfilled by the patient, the lower was mean total bilirubin level (p = 0.012). In study group there was also a strong, independent association of bilirubin level with fasting insulin level and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). The odds ratio of insulin resistance was 0.53 (0.38-0.74) for the fourth quartile in reference to the lowest quartile of bilirubin. CONCLUSION: In Polish adults serum total bilirubin level is inversely related to the prevalence of MS and insulin resistance.

Reference values for MRI-derived psoas and paraspinal muscles and macroscopic fat infiltrations in paraspinal muscles in children.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia, defined as loss of skeletal muscle mass, is a novel term associated with adverse outcomes in children. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a safe and precise technique for measuring tissue compartments and is commonly used in most routine paediatric imaging protocols. Currently, there is a lack of MRI-derived normative data which can help in determining the level of sarcopenia. This study aimed to introduce reference values of total psoas muscle area (tPMA), total paraspinal muscle area (tPSMA), and total macroscopic fat infiltrations of the PSMA (tMFI). METHODS: In this retrospective study, the local database was searched for abdominal and pelvic region MRI studies of children aged from 1 to 18 years (mean age (standard deviation (SD)) of 9.8 (5.5) years) performed in the years 2010-2021. Children with chronic diseases and a history of surgical interventions were excluded from the analysis. Finally, a total of 465 healthy children (n = 233 girls, n = 232 boys) were enrolled in the study. The values of the tPMA, tPMSA, and tMFI were measured in square centimetres (cm2 ) at the level of the L4/L5 intervertebral disc as the sum of the left and right regions. Age-specific and sex-specific muscle, fat, and body mass index percentile charts were constructed using the LMS method. Inter-observer agreement and intra-observer reproducibility were assessed using the Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Both tPMA and tPSMA showed continuous increases in size (in cm2 ) throughout all age groups. At the age of 18, the median tPMA areas reached 26.37 cm2 in girls and 40.43 cm2 in boys. Corresponding tPSMA values were higher, reaching the level of 40.76 cm2 in girls and 56.66 cm2 in boys. The mean value of tMFI within the paraspinal muscles was 5.0% (SD 3.65%) of their total area in girls and 3.5% (SD 2.25%) in boys with the actual difference between sexes up to 0.96 cm2 . Excellent intra-observer reproducibility and inter-observer agreement were noted. Actual mean differences for tPMA were at the level of 0.43 and 0.39 cm2 , respectively. Mean bias for tPSMA was 0.1 cm2 for inter-observer and 0.05 cm2 for intra-observer measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate novel and highly reproducible sex-specific MRI-derived reference values of tPMS, tPSMA, and tMFI at the level of the L4/L5 intervertebral disc for children from 1 to 18 years old, which may guide a clinician in the assessment of sarcopenia, a prognostic outcome marker in children.

The prevalence of dyspnea in the adult Polish population.

OBJECTIVES: Dyspnea is one of the most predominant symptom in clinical practice. There is a lack of data about incidents of dyspnea among Polish adults therefore it would be important to establish prevalence of this symptom before COVID-19 pandemic to assess the impact of this infection on the functioning of the adult Polish population in the future. The aim of the study was to establish prevalence of dyspnea in adult Polish population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: It was an observational-cross-sectional study, with representative sample of adult Poles aged 18-79 years. The 2413 participants were surveyed. Responders were asked if and when dyspnea occurs and what is its severity in relation to 1 of 4 categories (A, B, C, and D) describing the impact of dyspnea on reduced exercise tolerance and daily activities. RESULTS: The 67.1% of the respondents answered negatively to all question about experiencing dyspnea (females (F) 61% vs. males (M) 74%, p < 0.05). Dyspnea only during intense physical exertion (A), was reported by 22.8% (F 26.2% vs. M 19.2%, p = 0.07). Dyspnea limiting daily activities (B, C and D) was reported by 10.1% (F 13.1% vs. M 7%, p < 0.05). Significant differences in the severity of dyspnea were found between the age groups. People diagnosed with chronic heart failure or lung diseases significantly more often reported dyspnea than people without these conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Every tenth Pole reported dyspnea limiting performing activities of daily living. Additionally, about 20% of Poles experienced dyspnea considered as "gray area," only during intense physical exertion, that requires deepening and clarifying the medical history. Int J Occup Med Environ Health. 2022;35(6):747-52.

Prevalence of self­reported heart failure in the adult Polish population: results of the NATPOL 2011 study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a growing medical and economic problem, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. However, only a few studies analyzed the prevalence of CHF in this region. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of CHF in a representative sample of adult Poles. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The NATPOL 2011 project was a cross­sectional study of a representative sample of the adult Polish population that included 2413 individuals (1245 women, 1168 men) aged 18 to 79 years (mean [SD] age, 45.8 [16.7] years). All participants completed a detailed questionnaire and underwent laboratory tests. We evaluated the prevalence of CHF based on self­reported symptoms, Pol-ish National Health Fund database, and the N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT­proBNP) level. RESULTS: The proportion of patients that reported the diagnosis of CHF was 4.3% (95% CI, 3.6%-5.2%). Only 0.2% of people aged under 40 years reported CHF, compared with 3.2% of those aged 40 to 59 years and 13.2% of those aged 60 to 79 years. The distribution of NT­proBNP levels in the patients with CHF was markedly skewed to the right, with the median value of 181 pg/ml (interquartile range, 90.8-531). Among the 104 individuals who declared having CHF, almost 56% had a record of at least 1 outpatient visit or hospitalization related to the ICD­10 I50 code in the National Health Fund database, which translates to 2.4% of confirmed diagnoses of CHF in all Polish adults. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study indicated that the proportion of inhabitants of Poland aged 18 to 79 years with heart failure was somewhere between 2.4% and 4.3%. This corresponds to 720 000 to 1 200 000 of diagnosed CHF cases in Poland.