Comparison of methods for the detection and extrapolation of trends in groundwater quality.

Land use changes and the intensification of agriculture since the 1950s have resulted in a deterioration of groundwater quality in many European countries. For the protection of groundwater quality, it is necessary to (1) assess the current groundwater quality status, (2) detect changes or trends in groundwater quality, (3) assess the threat of deterioration and (4) predict future changes in groundwater quality. A variety of approaches and tools can be used to detect and extrapolate trends in groundwater quality, ranging from simple linear statistics to distributed 3D groundwater contaminant transport models. In this paper we report on a comparison of four methods for the detection and extrapolation of trends in groundwater quality: (1) statistical methods, (2) groundwater dating, (3) transfer functions, and (4) deterministic modeling. Our work shows that the selection of the method should firstly be made on the basis of the specific goals of the study (only trend detection or also extrapolation), the system under study, and the available resources. For trend detection in groundwater quality in relation to diffuse agricultural contamination, a very important aspect is whether the nature of the monitoring network and groundwater body allows the collection of samples with a distinct age or produces samples with a mixture of young and old groundwater. We conclude that there is no single optimal method to detect trends in groundwater quality across widely differing catchments.

A new tracer technique for monitoring groundwater fluxes: the Finite Volume Point Dilution Method.

Quantification of pollutant mass fluxes is essential for assessing the impact of contaminated sites on their surrounding environment, particularly on adjacent surface water bodies. In this context, it is essential to quantify but also to be able to monitor the variations with time of Darcy fluxes in relation with changes in hydrogeological conditions and groundwater - surface water interactions. A new tracer technique is proposed that generalizes the single-well point dilution method to the case of finite volumes of tracer fluid and water flush. It is called the Finite Volume Point Dilution Method (FVPDM). It is based on an analytical solution derived from a mathematical model proposed recently to accurately model tracer injection into a well. Using a non-dimensional formulation of the analytical solution, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the concentration evolution in the injection well, according to tracer injection conditions and well-aquifer interactions. Based on this analysis, optimised field techniques and interpretation methods are proposed. The new tracer technique is easier to implement in the field than the classical point dilution method while it further allows monitoring temporal changes of the magnitude of estimated Darcy fluxes, which is not the case for the former technique. The new technique was applied to two experimental sites with contrasting objectives, geological and hydrogeological conditions, and field equipment facilities. In both cases, field tracer concentrations monitored in the injection wells were used to fit the calculated modelled concentrations by adjusting the apparent Darcy flux crossing the well screens. Modelling results are very satisfactory and indicate that the methodology is efficient and accurate, with a wide range of potential applications in different environments and experimental conditions, including the monitoring with time of changes in Darcy fluxes.

Regional transport modelling for nitrate trend assessment and forecasting in a chalk aquifer.

Regional degradation of groundwater resources by nitrate has become one of the main challenges for water managers worldwide. Regulations have been defined to reverse observed nitrate trends in groundwater bodies, such as the Water Framework Directive and the Groundwater Daughter Directive in the European Union. In such a context, one of the main challenges remains to develop efficient approaches for groundwater quality assessment at regional scale, including quantitative numerical modelling, as a decision support for groundwater management. A new approach combining the use of environmental tracers and the innovative 'Hybrid Finite Element Mixing Cell' (HFEMC) modelling technique is developed to study and forecast the groundwater quality at the regional scale, with an application to a regional chalk aquifer in the Geer basin in Belgium. Tritium data and nitrate time series are used to produce a conceptual model for regional groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the combined unsaturated and saturated zones of the chalk aquifer. This shows that the spatial distribution of the contamination in the Geer basin is essentially linked to the hydrodynamic conditions prevailing in the basin, more precisely to groundwater age and mixing and not to the spatial patterns of land use or local hydrodispersive processes. A three-dimensional regional scale groundwater flow and solute transport model is developed. It is able to reproduce the spatial patterns of tritium and nitrate and the observed nitrate trends in the chalk aquifer and it is used to predict the evolution of nitrate concentrations in the basin. The modelling application shows that the global inertia of groundwater quality is strong in the basin and trend reversal is not expected to occur before the 2015 deadline fixed by the European Water Framework Directive. The expected time required for trend reversal ranges between 5 and more than 50 years, depending on the location in the basin and the expected reduction in nitrate application. To reach a good chemical status, nitrate concentrations in the infiltrating water should be reduced as soon as possible below 50mg/l; however, even in that case, more than 50 years is needed to fully reverse upward trends.