Trajectories of offending over 9 years after youths' first arrest: What predicts who desists and who continues to offend?

Antisocial and illegal behavior generally declines as youth approach adulthood, but there is significant individual variation in the timing of the peak and decline of offending from adolescence to young adulthood. There are two primary research questions in the present study. First, are there subgroups of youth who follow similar patterns of offending over the nine years after their first arrest? Second, what baseline factors predict which youth will follow each pattern of offending? Data were drawn from the Crossroads study, which includes a sample of racially and ethnically diverse boys who were interviewed regularly for 9 years following their first arrest. Boys were between 13 and 17 years old at the start of the study and were approximately 24-25 years old at the final interview. Trajectories were measured with youths' self-reported offending using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). Results indicated that there were four subgroups of youth: a stable low group (55%), an escalating group (23%), a short-term recidivist group (15%), and a persistently high group (7%). Several baseline factors distinguished the groups. In particular, the results indicated that youth who were informally processed after their first arrest were more likely to be in the low offending group than any of the other LCGA groups. Age at first arrest, peer delinquency, exposure to violence, substance use, callous-unemotional traits, physical aggression, and perceptions of police legitimacy were also significantly related to group membership. Results suggest that certain risk factors identified after youths' first arrest may predict which youth continue to offend and which desist.

Life after life: Recidivism among individuals formerly sentenced to mandatory juvenile life without parole.

In Miller v. Alabama (2012), the Supreme Court abolished mandatory juvenile life without parole (JLWOP) sentences and subsequently decided that the ruling applied retroactively (Montgomery v. Louisiana, 2016), effectively rendering thousands of inmates eligible for resentencing and potential release from prison. In its decisions, the Court cited developmental science, noting that youth, by virtue of their transient immaturity, are less culpable and more amenable to rehabilitation relative to their adult counterparts. Specifically, the Court notes adolescents' propensity for impulsive action, sensitivity to social influence, and difficulty understanding long-term consequences. Even so, these rulings raised concerns regarding the consequences of releasing prisoners who had committed heinous crimes as juveniles. Several years after the Court's decision, preliminary data are now available to shed light on rates of recidivism among those released. The current paper comprises three goals. First, we discuss the science of adolescent development and how it intersects with legal practice, contextualizing the Court's decision. Second, we present recidivism data from a sample of individuals formerly sentenced to JLWOP in Pennsylvania who were resentenced and released under Miller and Montgomery (N = 287). Results indicate that 15 individuals received new criminal charges up to 7 years postrelease (5.2%), the majority of which were nonviolent offenses. This low rate of recidivism is consistent with the developmental science documenting compromised decision-making during the adolescent years, followed by desistance from criminal behavior in adulthood. Lastly, we discuss the importance of interdisciplinary collaborations between researchers and legal practitioners, as well as critical future avenues of research in this area.

Rearrest is associated with heightened callous-unemotional traits: No moderating effect of maternal relationship quality.

OBJECTIVE: The presence of callous-unemotional (CU) traits in adolescence predisposes youth to negative behavioral and social outcomes and may be particularly damaging to youth involved in the justice system. Whereas research has shown that CU traits predict later arrest, it remains unknown whether rearrest predicts changes in CU traits and whether these associations may be modified by maternal relationship quality. The present study assessed whether being rearrested predicted changes in CU traits and whether these associations varied by maternal warmth and maternal hostility. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that self-reported CU traits would increase at data collection time points following rearrest. Further, we hypothesized that maternal warmth would buffer the negative effects of rearrest, whereas maternal hostility would not have a significant moderating effect on the associations. METHOD: Hypotheses were tested using a large, multisite longitudinal data set of 1,216 justice-involved male youth (Mage = 15.82 years at baseline; 47% Latino, 38% Black/African American, 15% White). Data from a series of nine interviews (across a 7-year period) were used to determine associations between rearrest at one-time point and CU traits at the subsequent time point. RESULTS: Rearrest is associated with a significant increase in CU traits. However, these associations are not moderated by either maternal warmth or maternal hostility. CONCLUSIONS: Rearrest predicts increases in a known risk factor for healthy socioemotional development among justice-involved youths (CU traits). Moreover, the way rearrest is associated with CU traits does not change depending on maternal warmth; rearrest is associated with increases in CU traits irrespective of the quality of a youth's relationship with their mother. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Perceived sleep quality predicts aggressive offending in adolescence and young adulthood.

BACKGROUND: There are profound consequences when developing youth do not get adequate sleep. Adolescents who experience poor sleep may be more likely to engage in offending behavior. While there is a documented association between the number of hours youth sleep and their likelihood of offending, it is unclear how youths' perceptions of their sleep quality contribute to offending. Further, scholars have yet to rigorously examine the relation between sleep problems and offending in young adulthood, a developmental stage, which is both critical for desistance and in which sleep may play an important role. METHODS: Using a sample of 1,216 justice-involved male youth, this study uses within-individual longitudinal methods (fixed-effects Poisson regression models) to examine the relation between changes in perceptions of sleep quality and changes in offending behavior from ages 13 to 24. RESULTS: Increases in sleep problems are associated with increases in offending, particularly aggressive/person-related offenses, for both adolescents and young adults. This holds true even after controlling for time-varying anxiety, substance use, and violence exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Improving sleep quality may be critical for reducing aggressive behavior in at-risk adolescents and young adults. Interventions that address sleep quality, and not just quantity, may be particularly beneficial.

Race Differences in the Association Between Binge Drinking and Treatment Among First-Time Justice-System-Impacted Youth.

AIMS: We aim to determine whether there are racial/ethnic differences in the association between binge drinking frequency and community-based alcohol treatment among justice-system-impacted adolescents and young adults. METHODS: We examined whether race/ethnicity moderated the relation between binge drinking and youths' likelihood of receiving alcohol treatment. The sample included 1216 male, first-time-arrested youth from the Crossroads Study (2011-2018). Participants were recruited from CA, PA and LA. RESULTS: Among youth who binge drank occasionally, Black youth were less likely to receive alcohol treatment than White (b = -0.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-0.13, -0.04]) and Hispanic/Latino (b = -0.06, 95% CI [-0.09, -0.02]) youth. There were no differences between the White and Hispanic/Latino youth. Black youth who were frequent binge drinkers were as likely to receive alcohol treatment as White youth who binge drank significantly less often. There were no racial/ethnic differences in alcohol treatment at the highest level of binge drinking. CONCLUSION: Black youth who binge drink occasionally are less likely than White youth to receive alcohol treatment. The present findings highlight a need for efforts to mitigate racial disparities in access to or motivations to seek community-based treatment.

Impact of recreational cannabis legalization on cannabis use, other substance use, and drug-related offending among justice-system-involved youth.

The present study assessed whether cannabis use, other types of substance use, and drug-related offending changed among 1216 justice-system-involved youth after recreational cannabis legalization. Using generalized estimating equation population-averaged models, we compared youth in California, where recreational cannabis is legalized, and Pennsylvania, where recreational use is still prohibited. Results indicated that cannabis use, cannabis selling, and driving under the influences (DUIs) increased more among Pennsylvanian than Californian youth. We found no changes in alcohol or noncannabis drug use after legalization. Cigarette use did not change significantly among Pennsylvanian youth, but Californian youth exhibited decreased cigarette use after legalization. Although not directly tested in the present analysis, it is possible that changes in state-level recreational cannabis policies throughout the U.S. may contribute to more permissive attitudes toward cannabis, which leads to higher use and use-related outcomes. Future research should continue to consider the potential impacts of legalization on other types of risky and illegal behavior.

Crossroads in juvenile justice: The impact of initial processing decision on youth 5 years after first arrest.

The current study advances past research by studying the impact of juvenile justice decision making with a geographically and ethnically diverse sample (N = 1,216) of adolescent boys (ages 13-17 years) for the 5 years following their first arrest. Importantly, all youth in the study were arrested for an eligible offense of moderate severity (e.g., assault, theft) to evaluate whether the initial decision to formally (i.e., sentenced before a judge) or informally (i.e., diverted to community service) process the youth led to differences in outcomes. The current study also advanced past research by using a statistical approach that controlled for a host of potential preexisting vulnerabilities that could influence both the processing decision and the youth's outcomes. Our findings indicated that youth who were formally processed during adolescence were more likely to be re-arrested, more likely to be incarcerated, engaged in more violence, reported a greater affiliation with delinquent peers, reported lower school enrollment, were less likely to graduate high school within 5 years, reported less ability to suppress aggression, and had lower perceptions of opportunities than informally processed youth. Importantly, these findings were not moderated by the age of the youth at his first arrest or his race and ethnicity. These results have important implications for juvenile justice policy by indicating that formally processing youth not only is costly, but it can reduce public safety and reduce the adolescent's later potential contributions to society.

Identifying sensitive periods when changes in parenting and peer factors are associated with changes in adolescent alcohol and marijuana use.

PURPOSE: There are well-established associations between parental/peer relationships and adolescent substance use, but few longitudinal studies have examined whether adolescents change their substance use in response to changes in their parents' behavior or peer networks. We employ a within-person change approach to address two key questions: Are changes in parenting and peer factors associated with changes in adolescent marijuana and alcohol use? Are there sensitive periods when changes in parenting and peer factors are more strongly associated with changes in adolescent marijuana and alcohol use? METHODS: We analyzed longitudinal data collected annually on 503 boys, ages 13-19, recruited from Pittsburgh public schools. Questionnaires regarding parental supervision, negative parenting practices, parental stress, physical punishment, peer delinquency, and peer drug use were administered to adolescents and their caretakers. Alcohol and marijuana use were assessed by a substance use scale adapted from the National Youth Survey. RESULTS: Reductions in parental supervision and increases in peer drug use and peer delinquency were associated with increases in marijuana frequency, alcohol frequency, and alcohol quantity. Increases in parental stress were associated with increases in marijuana and alcohol frequency. The magnitudes of these relationships were strongest at ages 14-15 and systematically decreased across adolescence. These associations were not due to unmeasured stable confounders or measured time-varying confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing or mitigating changes in parenting and peer risk factors in early adolescence may be particularly important for preventing substance use problems as adolescents transition into young adulthood.

The Direct and Indirect Associations between Childhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Adolescent Gun Violence.

We examined whether childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with adolescent gun violence and whether early symptoms of conduct disorder and/or exposure to delinquent peers accounted for the linkage. Participants were 503 predominately Black and White boys who were recruited in 1st grade from Pittsburgh public schools. Multi-informant assessments were conducted regularly from approximately ages 7 to 20. A latent socioeconomic disadvantage factor was estimated with census-tract and parent-reported data when boys were about age 7½. Latent growth curve models assessed parent/teacher-reported conduct problems and youth-reported peer delinquency from about ages 7½ to 10. The outcome was youth-reported engagement in gun violence by about age 20. We also controlled for race. Analyses examined whether the association between childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and adolescent gun violence was mediated through early conduct problems and/or increased exposure to delinquent peers. Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with adolescent gun violence, and some of this effect was mediated through peer delinquency and conduct problems. Specifically, childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with greater affiliation with delinquent peers in early childhood, and early peer delinquency promoted a greater increase in conduct problems across childhood, and these conduct problems, in turn, led to an increased risk for adolescent gun violence. In summary, this study found that early socioeconomic disadvantage was directly and indirectly related to adolescent gun violence. Results suggest that interventions that aim to reduce conduct problems and deviant peer group affiliation in childhood might be important windows of opportunity for reducing gun violence in impoverished neighborhoods.

Risk and Protective Factors for Gun Violence in Male Juvenile Offenders.

OBJECTIVE: To examine several risk and protective factors as predictors of future gun violence among male juvenile offenders. METHOD: Data came from a longitudinal cohort of 1,170 male juvenile offenders (42.1% Black; 34.0% Latino; 19.2% White) ages 14-19 who were adjudicated for a serious offense. Interviews were conducted with participants every 6 months for 3 years and then annually for 4 years. The outcome was self-reported gun violence assessed at each follow-up. The time-lagged predictors included several self-reported risk factors (i.e., gun carrying, non-gun violence, drug dealing, heavy drinking, poor impulse control, rewards for crime, peer gun carrying, peer non-gun delinquency, gang membership) and protective factors (i.e., concern for others, expectations, and aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports). The data were analyzed using generalized estimating equation models. RESULTS: There were 266 participants who reported engaging in gun violence at one or more assessments. Gun carrying was a significant predictor of future gun violence; however, nearly half (49%) of the juveniles who reported gun carrying across the repeated assessments did not report engaging in gun violence. Besides gun carrying, several risk (i.e., drug dealing, heavy drinking, rewards for crime, gang membership, peer gun carrying) and protective (i.e., concern for others, aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports) factors significantly predicted gun violence, after controlling for their co-occurrence (Risk factor odds ratios = 1.18-1.50; Protective factor odds ratios =.44-.87; ps<.05). CONCLUSIONS: Interventions designed to prevent gun violence among juvenile offenders should reduce targeted risk factors, while strengthening protective factors that may offset these risks.

Exposure to Gun Violence: Associations with Anxiety, Depressive Symptoms, and Aggression among Male Juvenile Offenders.

Objective: To examine whether at-risk male youth experience increases in anxiety, depressive symptoms, and aggression during years when they are exposed to gun violence, adjusting for relevant covariates.Method: Participants were 1,216 male, justice-involved adolescents who were recently arrested for the first time for a moderate offense. They were interviewed 9 times over 5 years. Fixed effects (within-individual) regression models were used to estimate concurrent associations between exposure to gun violence and three outcomes: depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and aggression (both overall and separately for proactive and reactive aggression). The reverse direction (anxiety, depressive symptoms, and aggression predicting gun violence exposure) was also modeled.Results: After controlling for covariates, exposure to gun violence was significantly associated with increases in reactive aggression and, to a lesser extent, increases in proactive aggression. In addition, gun violence exposure was associated with increased anxiety but not depressive symptoms. We found no support for the reverse direction.Conclusions: At-risk males experienced significant increases in anxiety and aggression (particularly reactive aggression) during years when they are exposed to gun violence, even after accounting for several potential confounding factors. The greater impact on reactive aggression suggests that exposure to gun violence may affect self-regulation and/or social information processing. The analyses shed light on the less-visible damage wrought by gun violence and underscore the importance of mental health screening and treatment for youth who have been exposed to violence - especially gun violence - both to assist individual youths and to disrupt cycles of violence.

A Within-Individual Examination of the Predictors of Gun Carrying During Adolescence and Young Adulthood Among Young Men.

Although prior studies have identified several risk factors for gun carrying, no prior longitudinal studies have examined a comprehensive set of explanatory factors together in within-individual change models or examined whether the predictors of gun carrying change across adolescence and early young adulthood. The present study fills these gaps by examining the predictive utility of several risk factors for gun carrying, and by examining whether any of the associations vary by age. The sample included 1216 young men who were arrested for the first time during adolescence (approximately 15 years old) and interviewed regularly for 5 years (until approximately 20 years old) after the first arrest. The outcome was youth-self-reported gun carrying and the risk factors included several variables consistent with various explanations for gun carrying (psychosocial maturity deficits; antisocial behavioral style; socialization; victimization). Research questions were addressed with fixed effects dynamic panel models (within-individual change models). Results showed that the most robust predictors of gun carrying were increased exposure to guns and gun-related violence and increased engagement in other antisocial and illegal behavior. The results emphasize the specific etiology of gun carrying and the potential social contagion effect of gun-related events. Overall, the study points to the need for prevention and intervention programs to specifically target the reduction of the real and perceived prevalence of gun-related events in young men's lives.

Declines in Religiosity Predict Increases in Violent Crime-but Not Among Countries With Relatively High Average IQ.

Many scholars have argued that religion reduces violent behavior within human social groups. Here, we tested whether intelligence moderates this relationship. We hypothesized that religion would have greater utility for regulating violent behavior among societies with relatively lower average IQs than among societies with relatively more cognitively gifted citizens. Two studies supported this hypothesis. Study 1, a longitudinal analysis from 1945 to 2010 (with up to 176 countries and 1,046 observations), demonstrated that declines in religiosity were associated with increases in homicide rates-but only in countries with relatively low average IQs. Study 2, a multiverse analysis (171 models) using modern data (97-195 countries) and various controls, consistently confirmed that lower rates of religiosity were more strongly associated with higher homicide rates in countries with lower average IQ. These findings raise questions about how secularization might differentially affect groups of different mean cognitive ability.

Adolescent childbirth, miscarriage, and abortion: associations with changes in alcohol, marijuana, and cigarette use.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent girls who become pregnant demonstrate greater risk for substance use than same-aged peers. However, it remains unclear how risk relates to normative changes in adolescence. Few studies have examined adolescent substance use changes before, during, and after pregnancy and considered how pregnancy outcomes (childbirth, miscarriage, abortion) differentially influence substance use changes. The present study examined associations between different adolescent pregnancy outcomes and within-person changes in substance use from prepregnancy to postpregnancy. METHODS: Participants included 2,450 girls (52% Black) oversampled from low-income urban neighborhoods in Pittsburgh, PA. Participants self-reported pregnancy outcomes and substance use frequency (alcohol, cigarette, marijuana) annually from ages 11-20. Fixed effects regressions focused on first births, first miscarriages, and first abortions occurring from ages 12-19 to test the associations between pregnancy outcomes and within-individual changes in substance use from prepregnancy to postpregnancy. By design, models controlled for all potential time-stable confounds, and models included age and subsequent pregnancies as time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Consistent with prior studies, girls who became pregnant (20%) reported greater early risk for substance use problems than never-pregnant adolescents, including earlier age of onset and more regular marijuana and cigarette use. Childbirth predicted a 26%-51% within-individual reduction in alcohol, marijuana, and cigarette use that remained significantly lower than prepregnancy levels after childbirth. Alcohol and marijuana use decreased (32%-47%) after miscarriage. Abortion was not associated with long-term changes in substance use; however, marijuana and cigarette use gradually increased (44%-46%) in the years leading up to the year of and after abortion, respectively, before returning to prepregnancy levels. CONCLUSIONS: Findings highlight important differences in adolescent substance use patterns based on pregnancy outcome. For pregnant adolescents with heightened pre-existing risk for substance use, pregnancy may be a window of opportunity for substance use screening and behavioral intervention.

Marijuana Use Among Justice-Involved Youths After California Statewide Legalization, 2015-2018.

Objectives. To determine the impact of California's recreational marijuana legalization on marijuana use among justice system-involved (JSI) adolescents and young adults, and to distinguish whether any changes resulted from legalization (passing the law) or from implementation of the law.Methods. We compared changes in JSI youths' marijuana use in 2 states: California (n = 504), where recreational marijuana use was recently legalized, and Pennsylvania (n = 478), where recreational use is still prohibited. Furthermore, we examined changes in marijuana use across 3 key time periods (October 2015-June 2018): before legalization, after legalization but before implementation, and after implementation.Results. California JSI youths did not demonstrate a significant increase in marijuana use after legalization (b = -0.010; P = .950) or implementation (b = -0.046; P = .846). However, in Pennsylvania, rates of marijuana use increased significantly after legalization (b = 0.602; P = .001) but not after implementation (b = 0.174; P = .533).Conclusions. Although recreational marijuana legalization was not associated with changes in marijuana use among youths in California, we observed increased rates of use in Pennsylvania after legalization in California. Recreational marijuana laws may be indirectly related to youths' marijuana use by supporting more permissive national attitudes toward marijuana.

Associations Between Cannabis Use and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors: A Longitudinal Study of Men.

OBJECTIVE: This study tested longitudinal associations between cannabis use and cardiometabolic risk factors that underlie the development of cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: Participants were men from the youngest cohort of the Pittsburgh Youth Study who were followed prospectively from approximately age 7 to 32 years (N = 253). Frequency of cannabis use was assessed yearly from approximately ages 12 to 20 years and again at approximately ages 26, 29, and 32 years. The following cardiometabolic risk factors were assessed during a laboratory visit at approximately age 32 years: body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, insulin resistance, blood pressure, interleukin 6, and C-reactive protein. RESULTS: Greater cannabis exposure was associated with relatively lower BMI (ß = -0.31, p < .001), smaller waist-hip ratio (ß = -0.23, p = .002), better high- (ß = 0.14, p = .036) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ß = -0.15, p = .026), lower triglycerides (ß = -0.17, p = .009), lower fasting glucose (ß = -0.15, p < .001) and insulin resistance (ß = -0.21, p = .003), lower systolic (ß = -0.22, p < .001) and diastolic blood pressure (ß = -0.15, p = .028), and fewer metabolic syndrome criteria (ß = -0.27, p < .001). With exception of BMI, cannabis users' mean levels on cardiometabolic risk factors were generally below clinical cutoffs for high risk. Most associations between cannabis use and cardiometabolic risk factors remained after adjusting for tobacco use, childhood socioeconomic status, and childhood health. However, after adjusting for adult BMI, these associations were no longer apparent, and mediation tests suggested that cannabis users' relatively lower BMI might explain their lower levels of risk on other cardiometabolic risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Cannabis use is associated with lower BMI, and lower BMI is related to lower levels of risk on other cardiometabolic risk factors.

Distinguishing between-individual from within-individual predictors of gun carrying among Black and White males across adolescence.

Longitudinal studies have found that male adolescents who deal drugs, associate with delinquent peers, and engage in aggressive behavior are at increased risk for carrying a gun (between-individual risks). However, it is unclear whether changes in these risk factors help to explain fluctuations in youth gun carrying across adolescence (within-individual risks). The current study examined this issue using a community sample of 970 adolescent males (58% Black, 42% White) assessed annually from ages 14 to 18. Multilevel models examined the extent to which between-individual differences and within-individual changes in drug dealing, peer delinquency, aggressive behavior, and neighborhood disadvantage were associated with gun carrying across adolescence. Each of these predictors, except for disadvantage, exerted a between-individual and within-individual influence for Black youth. For White youth, drug dealing was significant on both levels, peer delinquency was a significant between-individual predictor, and aggression was a significant within-individual predictor. Neighborhood disadvantage did not significantly predict gun carrying in the model, on either the between- or within-individual level, for Black or White youth. These results stress the importance of examining race-specific predictors of gun carrying among Black and White adolescents and point to drug dealing as a robust predictor of gun carrying, at both the between-individual and within-individual levels for youth of either race. Efforts to prevent drug market involvement and reduce aggressive behaviors in adolescence may in turn prove useful for preventing firearm violence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Under the radar or under arrest: How is adolescent boys' first contact with the juvenile justice system related to future offending and arrests?

This study examined the extent to which being arrested during adolescence was associated with subsequent self-reported offending and court-recorded arrests. We also examined whether the way in which the justice system processed adolescents was related to the nature of these associations. The sample included 532 boys who had been arrested ("justice-system-involved") and 99 boys who had never been arrested despite engaging in similar illegal behaviors ("no-justice-system-contact"). Data included official arrest records and youths' self-reported illegal behavior at a baseline interview and a follow-up 6 months later. To reduce group differences at baseline, we calculated matching weights with 2 dozen variables and used these weights in all analyses. Results demonstrated that the groups differed in their rate of change in self-reported offending between the 2 interviews and in their likelihood of being arrested during the study period. The no-justice-system-contact group self-reported the same amount of offending at baseline and the follow up, whereas the justice-system-involved youth who received the most lenient disposition (i.e., sanction and dismiss) decreased their self-reported violent, theft or property, and total offending, and the justice-system-involved youth who received the most punitive disposition (i.e., adjudication) increased their self-reported violent offending. All justice-system-involved youth were more likely to be arrested during the study period than the no-justice-system-contact youth, even after accounting for self-reported offending. Thus, even though some justice system interventions were associated with less subsequent offending, involvement with the juvenile justice system during adolescence, in and of itself, is a significant risk factor for repeated contact with the system. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.

Childhood risk factors associated with adolescent gun carrying among Black and White males: An examination of self-protection, social influence, and antisocial propensity explanations.

Adolescent gun violence is a serious public health issue that disproportionately affects young Black males. Although it has been postulated that differential exposure to childhood risk factors might account for racial differences in adolescent gun carrying, no longitudinal studies have directly examined this issue. We examined whether childhood risk factors indexing neighborhood crime, peer delinquency, and conduct problems predicted the initiation of adolescent gun carrying among a community sample of Black and White boys. Analyses then examined whether racial differences in risk factors accounted for racial differences in gun carrying. Data came from a sample of 485 Black and White boys who were repeatedly assessed from 2nd grade until age 18. Multi-informant data collected across the first 3 years of the study were used to assess neighborhood crime, peer delinquency, and conduct problems. Illegal gun carrying was assessed annually from 5th grade through age 18. Growth curve analyses indicated that children with higher initial levels of conduct problems and delinquent peer involvement, as well as those who increased in conduct problems across childhood, were more likely to carry a gun prior to age 18. Black boys were also more likely to carry guns than Whites. Racial differences were greatly reduced, but not eliminated, after controlling for initial levels of conduct problems and delinquent peer involvement. Findings suggest that early prevention programs designed to reduce adolescent gun violence (including racial disparities in gun violence) should target boys with severe conduct problems and those who affiliate with delinquent peers during elementary school. (PsycINFO Database Record