Predicting Kidney Transplantation Outcomes from Donor and Recipient Characteristics at Time Zero: Development of a Mobile Application for Nephrologists.

(1) Background: We report on the development of a predictive tool that can estimate kidney transplant survival at time zero. (2) Methods: This was an observational, retrospective study including 5078 transplants. Death-censored graft and patient survivals were calculated. (3) Results: Graft loss was associated with donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.021, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.018-1.024, p < 0.001), uncontrolled donation after circulatory death (DCD) (HR 1.576, 95% CI 1.241-2.047, p < 0.001) and controlled DCD (HR 1.567, 95% CI 1.372-1.812, p < 0.001), panel reactive antibody percentage (HR 1.009, 95% CI 1.007-1.011, p < 0.001), and previous transplants (HR 1.494, 95% CI 1.367-1.634, p < 0.001). Patient survival was associated with recipient age (> 60 years, HR 5.507, 95% CI 4.524-6.704, p < 0.001 vs. < 40 years), donor age (HR 1.019, 95% CI 1.016-1.023, p < 0.001), dialysis vintage (HR 1.0000263, 95% CI 1.000225-1.000301, p < 0.01), and male sex (HR 1.229, 95% CI 1.135-1.332, p < 0.001). The C-statistics for graft and patient survival were 0.666 (95% CI: 0.646, 0.686) and 0.726 (95% CI: 0.710-0.742), respectively. (4) Conclusions: We developed a mobile app to estimate survival at time zero, which can guide decisions for organ allocation.

Does the Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) predict graft and patient survival in a Spanish population? / ¿Predice el Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) la supervivencia del injerto y del paciente en una población española?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI), together with other donor and recipient variables, can optimise the organ allocation process. This study aims to check the feasibility of the KDPI for a Spanish population and its predictive ability of graft and patient survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 2,734 kidney transplants carried out in Andalusia between January 2006 and December 2015 were studied. Cases were grouped by recipient age, categorised by KDPI quartile and both graft and patient survival were compared among groups. RESULTS: The KDPI accurately discriminated optimal organs from suboptimal or marginal ones. For adult recipients (aged: 18-59years) it presents a hazard ratio of 1.013 (P<.001) for death-censored graft survival and of 1.013 (P=.007) for patient survival. For elderly recipients (aged: 60+years), KDPI presented a hazard ratio of 1.016 (P=.001) for death-censored graft survival and of 1.011 (P=.007) for patient survival. A multivariate analysis identified the KDPI, donor age, donation after circulatory death, recipient age and gender as predictive factors of graft survival. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained show that the KDPI makes it possible to relate the donor's characteristics with the greater or lesser survival of the graft and the patient in the Spanish population. However, due to certain limitations, a new index for Spain based on Spanish or European data should be created. In this study, some predictive factors of graft survival are identified that may serve as a first step in this path.

Progression of urinary protein excretion after kidney transplantation: A marker for poor long-term prognosis.

INTRODUCTION: Post-transplantation proteinuria is a risk factor for graft failure. A progressive decline in renal graft function is a predictor for mortality in kidney transplant patients. OBJECTIVES: To assess the development and the progression of urinary protein excretion (UPE) in the first year post-transplant in recipients of kidney transplants and its effect on patient and graft outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed 1815 patients with 24-h UPE measurements available at 3 and 12 months post-transplant. Patients were divided based on their UPE level: below 300 mg, 300-1000 mg and over 1000 mg (at 3 and 12 months), and changes over time were analysed. RESULTS: At 3 months, 65.7% had UPE below 300 mg/24 h, 29.6% 300-1000 mg/24 h and 4.7% over 1000 mg/24h. At one year, 71.6% had UPE below 300 mg/24 h, 24.1% 300-1000 mg/24 h and 4.4% over 1000 mg/24 h. In 208 patients (12%), the UPE progressed, in 1233 (70.5%) it remained stable and in 306 (17.5%) an improvement was observed. We found that the level of UPE influenced graft survival, particularly if a progression occurred. Recipient's age and renal function at one year were found to be predictive factors for mortality, while proteinuria and renal function were predictive factors for graft survival. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria after transplantation, essentially when it progresses, is a marker of a poor prognosis and a predictor for graft survival. Progression of proteinuria is associated with poorer renal function and lower graft survival rates.