Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.

Turnover concepts in state-of-the-art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation-based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation-based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation-based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large-scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models.

Global and time-resolved monitoring of crop photosynthesis with chlorophyll fluorescence.

Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50-75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.

COVID-19 pandemic and capital markets: the role of government responses.

This paper analyzes the moderation effect of government responses on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, proxied by the daily growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths, on the capital market, i.e., the S&P 500 firm's daily returns. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we monitor 16 daily indicators for government actions across the fields of containment and closure, economic support, and health for 180 countries in the period from January 1, 2020 to March 15, 2021. We find that government responses mitigate the negative stock market impact and that investors' sentiment is sensitive to a firm's country-specific revenue exposure to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the mitigation effect is stronger for firms that are highly exposed to COVID-19 on the sales side. In more detail, containment and closure policies and economic support mitigate negative stock market impacts, while health system policies support further declines. For firms with high revenue exposure to COVID-19, the mitigation effect is stronger for government economic support and health system initiatives. Containment and closure policies do not mitigate stock price declines due to growing COVID-19 case numbers. Our results hold even after estimating the spread of the pandemic with an epidemiological standard model, namely, the susceptible-infectious-recovered model.

Development of permafrost-affected peatlands in the southern limit of the European Russian cryolithozone and their vulnerability to future warming.

Permafrost degradation due to climate warming is currently observed in the northeastern part of European Russia. Peat plateaus underlain by permafrost cover only about 20% of the Russian European cryolithozone but contain almost 50% of soil organic carbon stocks (SOC), which are considered to be vulnerable to microbial mineralization after permafrost thaw. The current study was performed at three key sites of peat plateaus located along the southern permafrost limit. SOC decomposition was studied by aerobic and anaerobic incubation experiments, conducted at 4 °C over a period of 1301 days. The CO2 production was measured in peat samples at three key sites from the active layer (AL), transitional layer (TL), permafrost layer (PL), and at one site from the deep permafrost layer (DPL), which is in contact with mineral soil at 3.7 m depth. During the experiment, the initial СО2 respiration rates significantly differed in the samples AL, TL and PL in all key sites. However, at each site in the majority of samples the CO2 respiration rates were 2-5 times aerobically higher than anaerobically. In anaerobic conditions, in all sites, the СО2 respiration rate in PL was the lowest, higher in TL and the highest in AL in all 3 sites. Projections of CO2 aerobically production for 80 years represent 1.44 ± 0.11, 6.31 ± 0.47, 30.64 ± 17.98% of initial permafrost carbon from the samples of Inta 1, Inta 11 and Kolva respectively. But under anaerobical conditions estimates are close and indicate insignificant amounts 0.30…1.90% of carbon release over a period of 80 years. We suggest that even under ideal conditions of the incubation experiment, without considering ecological inertia under natural conditions, while also permafrost temperature is close to zero, greenhouse gas release from initial SOC is significantly less than estimated.

Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density.

Climate change will cause a substantial future greenhouse gas release from warming and thawing permafrost-affected soils to the atmosphere enabling a positive feedback mechanism. Increasing the population density of big herbivores in northern high-latitude ecosystems will increase snow density and hence decrease the insulation strength of snow during winter. As a consequence, theoretically 80% of current permafrost-affected soils (<10 m) is projected to remain until 2100 even when assuming a strong warming using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Importantly, permafrost temperature is estimated to remain below -4 °C on average after increasing herbivore population density. Such ecosystem management practices would be therefore theoretically an important additional climate change mitigation strategy. Our results also highlight the importance of new field experiments and observations, and the integration of fauna dynamics into complex Earth System models, in order to reliably project future ecosystem functions and climate.

Einstein@Home discovers a radio-quiet gamma-ray millisecond pulsar.

Millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are old neutron stars that spin hundreds of times per second and appear to pulsate as their emission beams cross our line of sight. To date, radio pulsations have been detected from all rotation-powered MSPs. In an attempt to discover radio-quiet gamma-ray MSPs, we used the aggregated power from the computers of tens of thousands of volunteers participating in the Einstein@Home distributed computing project to search for pulsations from unidentified gamma-ray sources in Fermi Large Area Telescope data. This survey discovered two isolated MSPs, one of which is the only known rotation-powered MSP to remain undetected in radio observations. These gamma-ray MSPs were discovered in completely blind searches without prior constraints from other observations, raising hopes for detecting MSPs from a predicted Galactic bulge population.

Predicting long-term carbon mineralization and trace gas production from thawing permafrost of Northeast Siberia.

The currently observed Arctic warming will increase permafrost degradation followed by mineralization of formerly frozen organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ). Despite increasing awareness of permafrost carbon vulnerability, the potential long-term formation of trace gases from thawing permafrost remains unclear. The objective of the current study is to quantify the potential long-term release of trace gases from permafrost organic matter. Therefore, Holocene and Pleistocene permafrost deposits were sampled in the Lena River Delta, Northeast Siberia. The sampled permafrost contained between 0.6% and 12.4% organic carbon. CO2 and CH4 production was measured for 1200 days in aerobic and anaerobic incubations at 4 °C. The derived fluxes were used to estimate parameters of a two pool carbon degradation model. Total CO2 production was similar in Holocene permafrost (1.3 ± 0.8 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.25 ± 0.13 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically) as in 34 000-42 000-year-old Pleistocene permafrost (1.6 ± 1.2 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.26 ± 0.10 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically). The main predictor for carbon mineralization was the content of organic matter. Anaerobic conditions strongly reduced carbon mineralization since only 25% of aerobically mineralized carbon was released as CO2 and CH4 in the absence of oxygen. CH4 production was low or absent in most of the Pleistocene permafrost and always started after a significant delay. After 1200 days on average 3.1% of initial carbon was mineralized to CO2 under aerobic conditions while without oxygen 0.55% were released as CO2 and 0.28% as CH4 . The calibrated carbon degradation model predicted cumulative CO2 production over a period of 100 years accounting for 15.1% (aerobic) and 1.8% (anaerobic) of initial organic carbon, which is significantly less than recent estimates. The multiyear time series from the incubation experiments helps to more reliably constrain projections of future trace gas fluxes from thawing permafrost landscapes.

Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate.

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO(2) flux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 +/- 8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of GPP's latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate-carbon cycle process models.