Variation in general practice referral rate to acute medicine services and association with hospital admission. A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Variation in general practice (GP) referral rates to outpatient services is well described however variance in rates of referral to acute medical units is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate variance in GP referral rate for acute medical assessment and subsequent need for hospital admission. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of acute medical referrals from 88 GPs in Lothian, Scotland between 2017 and 2020 was performed using practice population size, age, deprivation, care home residence, and distance from hospital as explanatory variables. Patient-level analysis of demography, deprivation, comorbidity, and acuity markers was subsequently performed on referred and clinically assessed acute medical patients (n = 42,424) to examine how practice referral behaviour reflects clinical need for inpatient hospital care. RESULTS: Variance in GP referral rates for acute medical assessment was high (2.53-fold variation 1st vs. 4th quartile) and incompletely explained by increasing age and deprivation (adjusted R2 0.67, P < 0.001) such that significant variance remained after correction for confounders (2.15-fold). Patients from the highest referring quartile were significantly less likely to require hospital admission than those from the third, second, or lowest referring quartiles (adjusted odds ratio 1.28 [1.21-1.36, P < 0.001]; 1.30 [1.23-1.37, P < 0.001]; 1.53 [1.42-1.65, P < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: High variation in GP practice referral rate for acute medical assessment is incompletely explained by practice population socioeconomic factors and negatively associates with need for urgent inpatient care. Identifying modifiable factors influencing referral rate may provide opportunities to facilitate community-based care and reduce congestion on acute unscheduled care pathways.

Managing the populations need for urgent medical care is challenge in many healthcare systems and overcrowding of urgent medical services negatively affects patient experience and can affect timely treatment. In the United Kingdom, the primary sources of patients attending for acute medical care are self-attendance to the hospital or by way of referral by a primary care physician (general practitioner). These data for the first time demonstrate high variation in referral rates for acute medical assessment between general practices which is incompletely explained by factors such as the age, deprivation, distance to the hospital or care home residence status of the care home population. Analysis of over 40,000 of these referrals for urgent medical care was subsequently undertaken to further investigate this variation. After adjusting for important clinical factors, patients referred from "high referring" practices were over 50% less likely to require inpatient hospital care than patients from lower referring practices. This suggests that the threshold for referral varies greatly between individual primary care clinicians, practices, or practice populations and many of these patients may have been suitable for less urgent community-based care. Identification of modifiable factors that account for this unexplained variation may facilitate community-based care and improve patient experience by reducing unnecessary attendance and congestion in already busy emergency care services.

Foundation doctors career choice and factors influencing career choice.

This study is seeking to establish the factors influencing foundation doctors' decision-making when applying for speciality training. A questionnaire was sent to all foundation doctors in Scotland (n = 1602, response rate 34%) asking them about their career intention in relation to General Practice, whether they received career advice and the extent to which certain factors influenced their career choice. For the majority of trainees, General Practice was not their first choice but just under half were considering it as a career. There were significant differences in career choices between the four Scottish regions and between the medical schools, with a greater proportion of those who studied in Aberdeen and Dundee Medical Schools opting for a career in General Practice. Undergraduate GP placement was reported as the strongest influence in favour of a career in General Practice followed by discussion with family and friends and discussion with speciality trainees. There were differences between medical schools in the way hospital placements, General Practice placements and role models influenced career choices. Career advice on General Practice was reported to be less available and more difficult to find.

Formative assessment of GP trainees' clinical skills.

BACKGROUND: Clinical skill assessment (CSA) has been an integral part of the Royal College of General Practitioners' membership examination (MRCGP) since 2008. It is an expensive, high-stakes examination with first time pass rates ranging from 76.4 to 81.3. In this paper we describe the South East Scotland Deanery, NHS Education Scotland, pilot of a formative clinical skills assessment (fCSA) using the principles of formative assessment and OSCE. The purpose of the study was to assess the acceptability of the fCSA and to examine whether trainees, identified during the fCSA as 'at risk of failing the MRCGP CSA exam', are more likely to fail the MRCGP CSA exam later on in the year. METHODS: Trainees were assessed in four clinical skills stations under exam conditions. After each station they were given verbal feedback and subsequently both trainee and their trainer received written feedback. We assessed the value of the exercise through written feedback from trainees and trainers. Each trainee's performance in fCSA was triangulated with trainer assessment to identify 'flagged trainees'. We compared flagged and non-flagged trainees' performance in MRCGP CSA. RESULTS: Both trainees and trainers highly rated the fCSA. Overall 97% of non-flagged trainees have passed the RCGP CSA exam by May of that year in comparison to 80% of flagged trainees who have passed the RCGP CSA (P = 0.005). Trainers and trainees rated the fCSA as excellent and useful. CONCLUSION: We were able to demonstrate that the fCSA can be used to identify those trainees likely to fail the RCGP CSA. Contrary to reservations about the potential to demoralise trainees, the fCSA was viewed as a useful and a positive experience by both trainees and trainers. In addition, we suggest that feedback from fCSA was useful in triggering appropriate educational interventions. Early intervention with trainees who are predicted to fail the CSA has the potential to reduce deaneries overall fail rate. Preventing one trainee failure could save over £30 000.