Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

Recurring weather extremes alter the flowering phenology of two common temperate shrubs.

The aim of this study is to explore the effects of heavy rain and drought on the flowering phenology of two shrub species Genista tinctoria and Calluna vulgaris. We conducted a field experiment over five consecutive years in Central Europe, applying annually recurring extreme drought and heavy rain events on constructed shrubland communities and recorded the flowering status. Further, we correlated spring temperature and precipitation with the onset of flowering. Both species showed a response to extreme weather events: drought delayed the mid flowering date of Genista tinctoria in 3 of 5 years by about 1 month and in 1 year advanced the mid flowering date by 10 days, but did not affect the length of flowering. Mid flowering date of Calluna vulgaris was not affected by drought, but the length of flowering was extended in 2 years by 6 and 10 days. For C. vulgaris the closer the drought occurred to the time of flowering, the larger the impact on the flowering length. Heavy rainfall advanced mid flowering date and reduced the length of flowering of Genista tinctoria by about 2 months in 1 year. Mid flowering date of Calluna vulgaris was not affected by heavy rain, but the length of flowering was reduced in 1 year by 4 days. Our data suggest that extreme weather events, including alterations to the precipitation regime, induce phenological shifts of plant species of a substantial magnitude. Thus, the impacts of climate extremes on plant life cycles may be as influential as gradual warming. Particularly, the variability in the timing of precipitation events appears to have a greater influence on flowering dynamics than the magnitude of the precipitation.

Stochastic trajectories of succession initiated by extreme climatic events.

Deterministic or rule-based succession is expected under homogeneous biotic and abiotic starting conditions. Effects of extreme climatic events such as drought, however, may alter these assembly rules by adding stochastic elements. We monitored the succession of species composition of 30 twin grassland communities with identical biotic and abiotic starting conditions in an initially sown diversity gradient between 1 and 16 species over 13 years. The stochasticity of succession, measured as the synchrony in the development of the species compositions of the twin plots, was strongly altered by the extreme warm and dry summer of 2003. Moreover, it was independent from past and present plant diversity and neighbourhood species compositions. Extreme climatic events can induce stochastic effects in community development and therefore impair predictability even under homogeneous abiotic conditions. Stochastic events may result in lasting shifts of community composition, as well as adverse and unforeseeable effects on the stability of ecological services.

Evaluating forest fragmentation and its tree community composition in the tropical rain forest of Southern Western Ghats (India) from 1973 to 2004.

A majority of the research on forest fragmentation is primarily focused on animal groups rather than on tree communities because of the complex structural and functional behavior of the latter. In this study, we show that forest fragmentation provokes surprisingly rapid and profound alterations in tropical tree community. We examine forest fragments in the tropical region using high-resolution satellite imagery taken between 1973 and 2004 in the Southern Western Ghats (India) in relation to landscape patterns and phytosociological datasets. We have distinguished fragmentation in six categories--interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch, and undetermined--around each forested pixel. Furthermore, we have characterized each of the fragment class in the evergreen and semi-evergreen forest in terms of its species composition and richness, its species similarity and abundance, and its regeneration status. Different landscape metrics have been used to infer patterns of land-use changes. Contiguous patches of >1,000 ha covered 90% of evergreen forest in 1973 with less porosity and minimal plantation and anthropogenic pressures; whereas in 2004, the area had 67% forest coverage and a high level of porosity, possibly due to Ochlandra spread and increased plantations which resulted in the loss of such contiguous patches. Results highlight the importance of landscape metrics in monitoring land-cover change over time. Our main conclusion was to develop an approach, which combines information regarding land cover, degree of fragmentation, and phytosociological inputs, to conserve and prioritize tropical ecosystems.

Plant diversity and productivity experiments in european grasslands

At eight European field sites, the impact of loss of plant diversity on primary productivity was simulated by synthesizing grassland communities with different numbers of plant species. Results differed in detail at each location, but there was an overall log-linear reduction of average aboveground biomass with loss of species. For a given number of species, communities with fewer functional groups were less productive. These diversity effects occurred along with differences associated with species composition and geographic location. Niche complementarity and positive species interactions appear to play a role in generating diversity-productivity relationships within sites in addition to sampling from the species pool.