Exploratory Analysis of the Economically Justifiable Price of a Hypothetical RSV Vaccine for Older Adults in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resembles that of influenza and may even be considered worse due to the lack of preventive interventions. This study was performed to identify the available literature on RSV infection in older adults, and to provide updated exploratory results of the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical RSV vaccine in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. METHODS: A literature search was performed in Medline and EMBASE on 11 November 2019, which served as input for a static decision-tree model that was used to estimate the EJP, for an RSV vaccine applying different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. WTP thresholds applied were €20 000 and €50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the Netherlands, and £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the United Kingdom. Analyses were-in line with country-specific guidelines-conducted from a societal perspective for the Netherlands and a third-party payer perspective for the United Kingdom. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results was tested in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: After screening the literature, 3 studies for the Netherlands and 6 for the United Kingdom remained to populate the country-specific models. In the base case analysis for the Netherlands (mean RSV incidence, 3.32%), justifiable vaccine prices of €16.38 and €50.03 were found, based on applying the lower and higher WTP thresholds, respectively. Similarly, for the United Kingdom (mean incidence, 7.13%), vaccine prices of £72.29 and £109.74 were found, respectively. CONCLUSION: RSV vaccination may well be cost-effective in both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, depending on the exact RSV incidence, vaccine effectiveness and price. However, sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust based on varying the different parameter estimates and assumptions. With RSV vaccines reaching the final stages of development, a strong need exists for cost-effectiveness studies to understand economically justifiable pricing of the vaccine.

The seroprevalence of cytomegalovirus infection in Belgium anno 2002 and 2006: a comparative analysis with hepatitis A virus seroprevalence.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is endemic worldwide but its seroprevalence varies widely. The goal of this study was to estimate the age-specific seroprevalence of CMV infection in Belgium based on two cross-sectional serological datasets from 2002 and 2006. The seroprevalence was estimated relying on diagnostic test results based on cut-off values pre-specified by the manufacturers of the tests as well as relying on mixture models applied to continuous pathogen-specific immunoglobulin G antibody titre concentrations. The age-specific seroprevalence of hepatitis A virus (HAV), based on three Belgian cross-sectional serological datasets from 1993, 2002 and 2006, was used as a comparator since individuals acquire lifelong immunity upon recovery, implying an increasing seroprevalence with age. The age group weighted overall CMV seroprevalence derived from the mixture model was 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 31-34%) in 2002 and 31% (95% CI 30-32%) in 2006. We demonstrated that CMV epidemiology differs from the immunizing infection HAV. This was the first large-scale study of CMV and HAV serial datasets in Belgium, estimating seroprevalence specified by age and birth cohort.

Altered CD4+ T cell immunity in nurses occupationally exposed to viral pathogens.

Pathogen exposure, including but not limited to herpesviruses, moulds the shape of the immune system, both at a basal state and in response to immune challenge. However, little is known about the impact of high exposure to other viruses on baseline immune signatures and how the immune system copes with repetitive exposures to maintain a balanced functionality. Here we investigated baseline immune signatures, including detailed T cell phenotyping, antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and cytokine profile in paediatric (PED) nurses, who have high occupational exposure to viral pathogens including varicella zoster virus (VZV) and respiratory viruses, and in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) nurses, as a control group with infrequent occupational exposure. Our results show a lower CD4+ T cell response to two VZV proteins (IE62 and gE) and to tetanus toxoid (TT) in PED nurses who are cytomegalovirus (CMV)-seronegative, compared to CMV-seronegative NICU nurses, and that the decline might be more pronounced the more sustained the exposure. This decline might be due to an attrition of VZV- and TT-specific T cells as a result of the continuous pressure on the CD4+ T cell compartment. Moreover, our data suggest that the distinct T cell phenotypes known to be associated with CMV-seropositivity might be less prominent in PED nurses compared to NICU nurses, implying a plausible attenuating effect of occupational exposure on CMV-associated immunosenescence. Overall, this pilot study reveals an impact of occupational exposure to viral pathogens on CD4+ T cell immunity and supports further investigation in a larger cohort.

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalizations and deaths: is there a role for quality improvement through inter-hospital comparisons?

OBJECTIVE: To assess between-hospital variations in standardized in-hospital mortality ratios of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and identify possible leads for quality improvement. DESIGN: We used an administrative database to estimate standardized in-hospital mortality ratios for 111 Belgian hospitals, by carrying out a set of hierarchical logistic regression models, intended to disentangle therapeutic attitudes and biases. To facilitate the detection of false-negative/positive results, we added an inconclusive zone to the funnel plots, derived from the results of the study. Data quality was validated by comparison with (i) alternative data from the largest Belgian Sickness Fund, (ii) published German hospital data and (iii) the results of an on-site audit. SETTING: All Belgian hospital discharge records from 2004 to 2007. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: A total of 111 776 adult patients were admitted for CAP. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk-adjusted standardized in-hospital mortality ratios. RESULTS: Out of the 111 hospitals, we identified five and six outlying hospitals, with standardized mortality ratios of CAP consistently on the extremes of the distribution, as providing possibly better or worse care, respectively, and 18 other hospitals as having possible quality weaknesses/strengths. At the individuals' level of the analysis, adjusted odds ratios showed the paramount importance of old age, comorbidity and mechanical ventilation. The data compared well with the different validation sources. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitations inherent to administrative data, it seemed possible to establish inter-hospital differences in standardized in-hospital mortality ratios of CAP and to identify leads for quality improvement. Monitoring is needed to assess progress in quality.

Assessing the risk of measles resurgence in a highly vaccinated population: Belgium anno 2013.

Despite long-standing two-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination, measles outbreaks still occur in highly vaccinated European populations. For instance, large measles outbreaks occurred in France (2008­13), the United Kingdom (2012­13) and the Netherlands (2012). Based on a multicohort model approach, using spatial serological survey data, MMR vaccination coverage data and data on social contacts, we found effective reproduction numbers significantly higher than 1 for measles in Belgium. This indicates that at one of the expected re-introductions, a measles outbreak is likely to spread, especially when it occurs during school term. The predicted average effective reproduction number increased over a 30-year time span from 1.3 to 2.2 and from 1.9 to 3.2 for basic reproduction numbers of 12 and 18, respectively. The expected relative measles incidence was highest in infants under one year of age, in adolescents and young adults. In conclusion, gradually increasing proportions of susceptible adolescents and young adults provide through their highly active social life an avenue for measles to resurge in large outbreaks upon re-introduction in Belgium, especially during school terms. Infants form an important vulnerable group during future measles outbreaks.

INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS: POWERFUL OR POWER STRUGGLE?

Individual-based models (IBMs) offer endless possibilities to explore various research questions but come with high model complexity and computational burden. Large-scale IBMs have become feasible but the novel hardware architectures require adapted software. The increased model complexity also requires systematic exploration to gain thorough system understanding. We elaborate on the development of IBMs for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and model exploration with active learning. Investment in IBM simulator code can lead to significant runtime reductions. We found large performance differences due to data locality. Sorting the population once, reduced simulation time by a factor two. Storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects also seemed more efficient. Next, we improved model performance up to 70% by structuring potential contacts based on health status before processing disease transmission. The active learning approach we present is based on iterative surrogate modelling and model-guided experimentation. Symbolic regression is used for nonlinear response surface modelling with automatic feature selection. We illustrate our approach using an IBM for influenza vaccination. After optimizing the parameter spade, we observed an inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and the clinical attack rate reinforced by herd immunity. These insights can be used to focus and optimise research activities, and to reduce both dimensionality and decision uncertainty.

Determinants of between-country differences in ambulatory antibiotic use and antibiotic resistance in Europe: a longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify key determinants explaining country-year variations in antibiotic use and resistance. METHODS: Ambulatory antibiotic use data [in defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day (DIDs)] for 19 European countries from 1999 to 2007 were collected, along with 181 variables describing countries in terms of their agriculture, culture, demography, disease burden, education, healthcare organization and socioeconomics. After assessing data availability, overlap and relevance, multiple imputation generalized estimating equations were applied with a stepwise selection procedure to select significant determinants of global antibiotic use (expressed in DIDs), relative use of subgroups (amoxicillin and co-amoxiclav) and resistance of Escherichia coli and Streptococcus pneumoniae. RESULTS: Relative humidity, healthcare expenditure proportional to gross domestic product, feelings of distrust, proportion of population aged >65 years and availability of treatment guidelines were associated with higher total antibiotic use expressed in DIDs. Restrictions on marketing activities towards prescribers, population density, number of antibiotics, educational attainment and degree of atheism were associated with a lower number of total DIDs used. Relative prescribing of amoxicillin and co-amoxiclav was mainly determined by healthcare system choices [e.g. general practitioner (GP) registration and restricted marketing]. Specific antibiotic use was found to be a significant determinant of resistance for some but not all drug/organism combinations. Incentives to stimulate GP gatekeeping were associated with lower levels of resistance, and life expectancy at age 65+ and atheism were associated with more resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Myriad factors influence antibiotic use and resistance at the country level and an important part of these can be modified by policy choices.

Health-related quality of life in patients with melanoma expressed as utilities and disability weights.

BACKGROUND: Few studies about health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with melanoma have expressed their results in terms of utilities or disability weights (DWs). Utilities are required for calculating quality-adjusted life years and therefore for cost-effectiveness analyses. DWs are useful to assess the burden of diseases through disability-adjusted life years. OBJECTIVES: To provide utilities and DWs regarding patients with melanoma. METHODS: The patients were classified into eight groups using four stages based on the 2009 American Joint Committee on Cancer stages, with each stage subdivided into treatment and remission phases. The EuroQoL Five Dimensions Five Levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire was completed by the patients with melanoma to provide a mean utility for each group. In addition to this, the EuroQoL visual analogue scale (VAS) and a validated quality-of-life questionnaire dedicated to patients with melanoma [Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy Melanoma (FACT-M)] were completed by the same patients in order to compare their results with the obtained utilities. DWs were obtained by calculating, for each patient, the difference between his/her utility and the corresponding sex- and age-specific population norm. RESULTS: A total of 395 questionnaire sets were completed. Utilities and DWs showed significant differences between follow-up groups. Treatment groups had similar utilities and DWs but these results were obtained during different treatment durations and therefore have different weights. The VAS and the FACT-M were found to be less sensitive. Nevertheless, the FACT-M identified some problems not found by the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L questionnaire seems adequate to provide utilities and DWs in patients with melanoma. Lower HRQoL in female patients with melanoma is probably linked to lower HRQoL in the general population.

Universal hepatitis B vaccination in Belgium: impact on serological markers 3 and 7 years after implementation.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can be eliminated by effective universal vaccination. In Belgium, a free-of-charge HBV vaccination programme in infants with catch-up in adolescents was introduced in 1999. To evaluate the effects in <20-year-olds, seroprotection (anti-HBs >11 mIU/ml, according to the assay) and markers of infection (anti-HBc, HBsAg) were assessed in 2443 residual sera collected 7-8 years after implementation of the programme. The maximal prevalence of a solely anti-HBs seroprotective ('vaccinated') serostatus was 82·9% at age 1 year and 60·5% at age 13 years. A clear increase was found in age cohorts targeted by the campaign after a similar serosurvey conducted 4 years earlier. The prevalence of HBV infection remained unchanged at a low level (1·8% in 2006) similar to pre-vaccination data (1993-1994). We conclude that universal HBV vaccination has achieved overall high levels of vaccine-induced immunity, despite regional variations, which may give rise to pockets of susceptible young adults in the future.

Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts: A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics.

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the most important cause of death in the world. The socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st century. The severe toll that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken worldwide is an unfortunate illustration of our limited insight into the infectious risk for the global population. Co-incidence between NCD and infection offers an underexplored opportunity to design preventive policies. In a pilot survey, we observed that the NCD population displays a substantial reduction in their social contacting behavior as compared to the general population. This indicates that existing mathematical models based on contact surveys in the general population are not applicable to the NCD population and that the risk of acquiring an infection following a contact is probably underestimated. Our demonstration of reduced social mixing in several chronic conditions, raises the question to what extent the social mixing is influenced by the burden of disease. We advocate the design of disease-specific contact surveys to address how the burden of disease associates with social contact behavior and the risk of infection. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic offers an unprecedented opportunity to gain insight into the importance of infection in the NCD population and to find ways to improve healthcare procedures.

Cost analysis in favor of a combined approach for cytomegalovirus after kidney transplantation: a single-center experience.

BACKGROUND: In kidney transplant recipients, cytomegalovirus (CMV) can cause significant morbidity, mortality, and costs, which can be prevented by universal antiviral prophylaxis or preemptive therapy. METHODS: With the aim to improve our understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of these interventions, we documented resource use for 101 consecutive kidney transplant recipients in our center receiving preemptive therapy and estimated resource use for 2 alternative scenarios. RESULTS: At 100 days after transplantation, the mean total costs of our preemptive strategy including monitoring and treatment with intravenous ganciclovir was €2545 per patient. At €4853 per patient, these costs were highest for the CMV-positive donor/CMV-negative recipient (D+/R-) patient subgroup (n = 28), who frequently require recurrent treatment. A treatment scenario with valganciclovir prophylaxis for D+/R- and R+ patients, in which we ignored late-onset disease after discontinuation of prophylaxis, resulted in an estimated cost of €1892 per patient. A combined approach using valganciclovir prophylaxis in the D+/R- group and a preemptive strategy in the R+ groups would result in the lowest mean and median costs per patient (€1701). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that a combined approach, using valganciclovir prophylaxis in D+/R- patients and preemptive treatment in R+ patients, may result in the lowest cost. This approach seems reasonable as it restricts expensive prophylactic drug therapy to those who would benefit the most, whereas it limits the risk for drug toxicity and late-onset disease in those at lower risk for CMV.

[Opinions and attitudes of Flemish pharmacists and general practitioners towards INN prescribing. A survery in Antwerp and East Flanders]. / Avis et attitudes des pharmaciens et des médecins généralistes vis-à-vis de la prescription en DCI. Enquête réalisée à Anvers et en Flandre Orientate.

INTRODUCTION: Since 2002 in Belgium, physicians are allowed to prescribe by International Non-proprietary Name (INN). In 2005, the conditions for this decree were set. Examples from other countries have shown that INN prescribing can significantly contribute to controlling pharmaceutical expenditures. The share of INN prescriptions remains low in Belgium (7% in 2011). OBJECTIVE: To formulate an answer to the question: what are the opinions and attitudes of pharmacists and general practitioners [GP's] with regards to INN prescribing? METHOD: In the winter of 2011-2012, a questionnaire with closed-ended questions was send to pharmacists and GP's in the provinces of Antwerp and East-Flanders, through training days and personal visits. Pharmacists and GP's scored a list of statements with a 5-point Likert scale. The themes of the statements related to: delivering INN prescriptions, legislation, impact on expenditures, choices regarding patient concerns and interprofessional relations. RESULTS: In total, 353 questionnaires were completed and returned of which 228 165%1 were by pharmacists and 125 (35%1 by GP's. Although both declared to be sufficiently up to date with regulations to prescribe (84%) or to deliver (95%] a INN prescription, only 13% of the pharmacists said all prescription they receive contain the correct information. Less GP's [36%) than pharmacists (82%] feel aided by their software program when prescribing or delivering an INN prescription. GP's rely mostly on NIHDI (National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance) as the main source for information on INN prescribing, pharmacists rely on the [Local) pharmacists association. The pharmacists and GP's in the study who relied on NIHDI as main information source, were less aware of legislation concerning INN [N2, p<0,05] than those who rely on the local professional association [N2, p<0,0001]. All pharmacists in the study said to consider the patients medication history when delivering an INN prescription for chronic treatment. However, 57% of the GP's preferred not to prescribe by INN for the reason that they are not sure whether the pharmacist will always consider the patients medication history in case of an INN prescription. Although the GP's showed certain motivation to prescribe by INN, it was no greater than for generic prescribing. And INN prescribing has no added value compared to generic prescribing, according to the GP's. For the pharmacists, INN prescribing does contain an opportunity. With the increase in numbers of dosages and sorts of packaging of generic products, it becomes more and more difficult for pharmacists to manage their stock. In case of an INN prescription, the pharmacist can choose between the different packages in his stock. This offers opportunities especially for acute conditions. CONCLUSION: INN prescribing is a good example of where the collaboration between pharmacists and GP's still contains a lot of opportunities, as well for the two professions, as the government and the patient in terms of controlling the pharmaceutical expenditures. Also the education for pharmacist or GP can further contribute to the sensitization of INN prescribing. In practice, there remain a number of issues and differences in opinions between pharmacists and general practitioners regarding INN prescribing. GP's feel few motivation to prescribe by INN and the government has put no imperative demands towards prescribers. Further evaluation of the practicaL feasibility of the current conditions for prescribing and delivering INN prescriptions is needed.

The health and economic burden of chickenpox and herpes zoster in Belgium.

Varicella-zoster virus causes chickenpox (CP) and after reactivation herpes zoster (HZ). Vaccines are available against both diseases warranting an assessment of the pre-vaccination burden of disease. We collected data from relevant Belgian databases and performed five surveys of CP and HZ patients. The rates at which a general practitioner is visited at least once for CP and HZ are 346 and 378/100 000 person-years, respectively. The average CP and HZ hospitalization rates are 5·3 and 14·2/100 000 person-years respectively. The direct medical cost for HZ is about twice as large as the direct medical cost for CP. The quality-adjusted life years lost for ambulatory CP patients consulting a physician is more than double that of those not consulting a physician (0·010 vs. 0·004). In conclusion, both diseases cause a substantial burden in Belgium.

Are we hitting immunity targets? The 2006 age-specific seroprevalence of measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria and tetanus in Belgium.

Susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases in Belgium in 2006 was estimated from a serum survey. Immunoglobulins against measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) and diphtheria at all available ages (1-65 years), and against tetanus in >40-year-olds, were measured by ELISA. Age-standardized overall seronegativity for MMR was low (3·9%, 8·0%, 10·4%, respectively). However, the World Health Organization's targets for measles elimination were not met in 5- to 24-year-olds and about 1 in 7 women at childbearing age (15-39 years) were seronegative for rubella. In adults >40 years, tetanus immunity (87·2%, >0·16 IU/ml) largely exceeded diphtheria immunity (20-45%, >0·1 IU/ml). Despite free universal vaccination against MMR for more than 20 years and against diphtheria and tetanus for almost 60 years, our study revealed specific age groups remaining at risk for infection with these pathogens.

Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data.

The force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data.

Introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination in Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

AIMS: To document progress with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in three closely related European countries, one with organized (the Netherlands) and two with opportunistic cervical cancer screening (Belgium and Luxembourg). METHODS: Experts involved in cervical cancer screening and national immunization programs from the three countries were contacted to provide information on the decision-making process concerning the introduction of HPV vaccine. Sales statistics were obtained from Intercontinental Marketing Services. RESULTS: Advisory boards in all three countries advised organized HPV vaccination of girls of 12 years with variable catch-up policies. In Belgium, the national health authority partially reimburses the HPV vaccine for girls of 12-15 years (recently extended until 18 years). In Luxembourg, 12-year-old girls are invited for free vaccination, but the HPV vaccine is also free of charge for female adolescents of 13-17 years. The number of vaccines reimbursed in Belgium in December 2007 to May 2008 corresponds with the amount required to fully vaccinate 29% of the female population aged 12-15 years. In Luxembourg, between March and November 2008, the immunization program delivered a quantity of HPV vaccines which theoretically covered 29% of females aged 12-17 years. In the Netherlands, nationwide HPV vaccination of girls of 12 years will start in September 2009. The sales of HPV vaccines (all ages combined) were by far the lowest in the Netherlands. CONCLUSION: Up to the end of 2008, HPV vaccination efforts reached less than a third of the target population in Belgium and Luxembourg. If the latest trend continues, the current policy is expected to reach to most half of the target population. Well-planned introduction of vaccination combined with an organized screening program and active surveillance are crucial for the program to achieve and monitor its desired aims. Such surveillance should include linkage between vaccination, screening and cancer registries.

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Belgium, 2007-2008.

This paper documents the progress of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine introduction in Belgium. Information on vaccine use is based on sales statistics and reimbursement claims. From November 2007 to November 2008, the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance reimbursed the HPV vaccine for girls aged between 12-15 years. In December 2008, the age limit was extended to include girls up to the age of 18. In November 2008, the total number of HPV vaccines sold exceeded 530,000 doses. The number of vaccines reimbursed in Belgium, for the period November 2007-November 2008, corresponds to the amount required to fully vaccinate 44% of all girls aged between 12-15 years. However, the trend was decreasing over the last 10 months. By the current reimbursement policy, we can expect that maximum half of the target population can be reached. In Flanders (one of the three Communities in Belgium), the intention is to start, from September 2010, with a free school-based HPV immunisation for girls in the first year of secondary school (12 years of age), complemented with vaccination by a physician of choice. This strategy ensures a higher HPV vaccine coverage which is expected to be as high as the current coverage in the hepatitis B vaccination programme (approximately 80%) offered to boys and girls in the same age group and under the same circumstances.

Evolution over time in the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in older Australians due to herd protection from infant vaccination.

In many settings, serotype changes as a result of infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) programs are likely to continue after the introduction of adult PCV13 programs. We applied a multi-cohort model to explore how potential serotype changes may impact on the cost-effectiveness of PCV13 use in Australian adults aged over 65 years. We found assumptions around continued herd protection from infant PCV13 programs to be critical when assessing the cost-effectiveness of adult PCV13 vaccination in Australia. Future cost-effectiveness analyses of adult PCV13 programs need to carefully consider how to predict these future changes in serotypes, with Australian data suggesting that the changes post-PCV13 use in infants may be different than post-PCV7.