The Enneagram as a Tool for Resident Wellness and Correlation With Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Milestone Achievements.

INTRODUCTION: The Enneagram is an ancient personality typing system developed to improve self-knowledge. Broken down into nine personality types, each is driven by a core motivating factor. Other personality assessments have been used to study the personality profile of surgeons. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the variability in Enneagram type among a single institution's general surgery residents. METHODS: All categorical general surgery residents at a single institution completed an online Enneagram assessment as part of a wellness initiative. Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education milestone levels for professionalism (PRO) and interpersonal and communication skills were collected for each resident's intern year. Milestone levels were compared between the nine Enneagram types. RESULTS: All nine Enneagram types were represented among surveyed residents. The most frequent Enneagram type was type 3 (20.69%). There was no significant difference between PRO (P = 0.322) and interpersonal and communication skills (P = 0.645) scores among residents distributed by Enneagram type. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of core Enneagram type, general surgery residents in this study all achieved appropriate Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education milestone levels for entry level of training. The Enneagram can provide self-awareness and understanding of resident differences but does not impact initial assessment of competency in PRO and interpersonal communication skills.

Evidence-based guideline: unexplained infertility†.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the recommended management for couples presenting with unexplained infertility (UI), based on the best available evidence in the literature? SUMMARY ANSWER: The evidence-based guideline on UI makes 52 recommendations on the definition, diagnosis, and treatment of UI. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: UI is diagnosed in the absence of any abnormalities of the female and male reproductive systems after 'standard' investigations. However, a consensual standardization of the diagnostic work-up is still lacking. The management of UI is traditionally empirical. The efficacy, safety, costs, and risks of treatment options have not been subjected to robust evaluation. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The guideline was developed according to the structured methodology for ESHRE guidelines. Following formulation of key questions by a group of experts, literature searches, and assessments were undertaken. Papers written in English and published up to 24 October 2022 were evaluated. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Based on the available evidence, recommendations were formulated and discussed until consensus was reached within the guideline development group (GDG). Following stakeholder review of an initial draft, the final version was approved by the GDG and the ESHRE Executive Committee. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: This guideline aims to help clinicians provide the best care for couples with UI. As UI is a diagnosis of exclusion, the guideline outlined the basic diagnostic procedures that couples should/could undergo during an infertility work-up, and explored the need for additional tests. The first-line treatment for couples with UI was deemed to be IUI in combination with ovarian stimulation. The place of additional and alternative options for treatment of UI was also evaluated. The GDG made 52 recommendations on diagnosis and treatment for couples with UI. The GDG formulated 40 evidence-based recommendations-of which 29 were formulated as strong recommendations and 11 as weak-10 good practice points and two research only recommendations. Of the evidence-based recommendations, none were supported by high-quality evidence, one by moderate-quality evidence, nine by low-quality evidence, and 31 by very low-quality evidence. To support future research in UI, a list of research recommendations was provided. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Most additional diagnostic tests and interventions in couples with UI have not been subjected to robust evaluation. For a large proportion of these tests and treatments, evidence was very limited and of very low quality. More evidence is required, and the results of future studies may result in the current recommendations being revised. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The guideline provides clinicians with clear advice on best practice in the care of couples with UI, based on the best evidence currently available. In addition, a list of research recommendations is provided to stimulate further studies in the field. The full guideline and a patient leaflet are available in www.eshre.eu/guideline/UI. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The guideline was developed by ESHRE, who funded the guideline meetings, literature searches, and dissemination of the guideline in collaboration with the Monash University led Australian NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Women's Health in Reproductive Life (CREWHIRL). The guideline group members did not receive any financial incentives; all work was provided voluntarily. D.R. reports honoraria from IBSA and Novo Nordisk. B.A. reports speakers' fees from Merck, Gedeon Richter, Organon and Intas Pharma; is part of the advisory board for Organon Turkey and president of the Turkish Society of Reproductive Medicine. S.B. reports speakers' fees from Merck, Organon, Ferring, the Ostetric and Gynaecological Society of Singapore and the Taiwanese Society for Reproductive Medicine; editor and contributing author, Reproductive Medicine for the MRCOG, Cambridge University Press; is part of the METAFOR and CAPE trials data monitoring committee. E.B. reports research grants from Roche diagnostics, Gedeon Richter and IBSA; speaker's fees from Merck, Ferring, MSD, Roche Diagnostics, Gedeon Richter, IBSA; E.B. is also a part of an Advisory Board of Ferring Pharmaceuticals, MSD, Roche Diagnostics, IBSA, Merck, Abbott and Gedeon Richter. M.M. reports consulting fees from Mojo Fertility Ltd. R.J.N. reports research grant from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC); consulting fees from Flinders Fertility Adelaide, VinMec Hospital Hanoi Vietnam; speaker's fees from Merck Australia, Cadilla Pharma India, Ferring Australia; chair clinical advisory committee Westmead Fertility and research institute MyDuc Hospital Vietnam. T.P. is a part of the Research Council of Finland and reports research grants from Roche Diagnostics, Novo Nordics and Sigrid Juselius foundation; consulting fees from Roche Diagnostics and organon; speaker's fees from Gedeon Richter, Roche, Exeltis, Organon, Ferring and Korento patient organization; is a part of NFOG, AE-PCOS society and several Finnish associations. S.S.R. reports research grants from Roche Diagnostics, Organon, Theramex; consulting fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals, MSD and Organon; speaker's fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals, MSD/Organon, Besins, Theramex, Gedeon Richter; travel support from Gedeon Richter; S.S.R. is part of the Data Safety Monitoring Board of TTRANSPORT and deputy of the ESHRE Special Interest Group on Safety and Quality in ART; stock or stock options from IVI Lisboa, Clínica de Reprodução assistida Lda; equipment/medical writing/gifts from Roche Diagnostics and Ferring Pharmaceuticals. S.K.S. reports speakers' fees from Merck, Ferring, MSD, Pharmasure. HRV reports consulting and travel fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals. The other authors have nothing to disclose. DISCLAIMER: This guideline represents the views of ESHRE, which were achieved after careful consideration of the scientific evidence available at the time of preparation. In the absence of scientific evidence on certain aspects, a consensus between the relevant ESHRE stakeholders has been obtained. Adherence to these clinical practice guidelines does not guarantee a successful or specific outcome, nor does it establish a standard of care. Clinical practice guidelines do not replace the need for application of clinical judgment to each individual presentation, nor variations based on locality and facility type. ESHRE makes no warranty, express or implied, regarding the clinical practice guidelines and specifically excludes any warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular use or purpose. (Full disclaimer available at www.eshre.eu/guidelines.).

Microsecond Isomer at the N=20 Island of Shape Inversion Observed at FRIB.

Excited-state spectroscopy from the first experiment at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) is reported. A 24(2)-µs isomer was observed with the FRIB Decay Station initiator (FDSi) through a cascade of 224- and 401-keV γ rays in coincidence with ^{32}Na nuclei. This is the only known microsecond isomer (1 µs≤T_{1/2}<1 ms) in the region. This nucleus is at the heart of the N=20 island of shape inversion and is at the crossroads of the spherical shell-model, deformed shell-model, and ab initio theories. It can be represented as the coupling of a proton hole and neutron particle to ^{32}Mg, ^{32}Mg+π^{-1}+ν^{+1}. This odd-odd coupling and isomer formation provides a sensitive measure of the underlying shape degrees of freedom of ^{32}Mg, where the onset of spherical-to-deformed shape inversion begins with a low-lying deformed 2^{+} state at 885 keV and a low-lying shape-coexisting 0_{2}^{+} state at 1058 keV. We suggest two possible explanations for the 625-keV isomer in ^{32}Na: a 6^{-} spherical shape isomer that decays by E2 or a 0^{+} deformed spin isomer that decays by M2. The present results and calculations are most consistent with the latter, indicating that the low-lying states are dominated by deformation.

Insights into Changing Dermatophyte Spectrum in India Through Analysis of Cumulative 161,245 Cases Between 1939 and 2021.

Dermatophytosis is one of the most common superficial infections of the skin affecting nearly one-fifth of the world population at any given time. With nearly 30% of worldwide terbinafine-resistance cases in Trichophyton mentagrophytes/Trichophyton interdigitale and Trichophyton rubrum reported from India in recent years, there is a significant burden of the emerging drug resistance epidemic on India. Here, we carry out a comprehensive retrospective analysis of dermatophytosis in India using 1038 research articles pertaining to 161,245 cases reported from 1939 to 2021. We find that dermatophytosis is prevalent in all parts of the country despite variable climatic conditions in different regions. Our results show T. rubrum as the most prevalent until 2015, with a sudden change in dermatophyte spectrum towards T. mentagrophytes/T. interdigitale complex since then. We also carried out an 18S rRNA-based phylogenetics and an average nucleotide identity-and single nucleotide polymorphism-based analysis of available whole genomes and find very high relatedness among the prevalent dermatophytes, suggesting geographic specificity. The comprehensive epidemiological and phylogenomics analysis of dermatophytosis in India over the last 80 years, presented here, would help in region-specific prevention, control and treatment of dermatophyte infections, especially considering the large number of emerging resistance cases.

Veliparib monotherapy following carboplatin/paclitaxel plus veliparib combination therapy in patients with germline BRCA-associated advanced breast cancer: results of exploratory analyses from the phase III BROCADE3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In the BROCADE3 trial, addition of the poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, veliparib, to carboplatin/paclitaxel improved progression-free survival (PFS) (hazard ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.88; P = 0.002) in patients with advanced human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, germline BRCA1/2-mutated breast cancer. A subset of patients discontinued both carboplatin and paclitaxel before progression and continued on veliparib/placebo maintenance monotherapy until progression. Analyses in this patient subgroup are reported. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were randomized 2 : 1 to veliparib plus carboplatin/paclitaxel or placebo plus carboplatin/paclitaxel. Veliparib (120 mg twice daily) or placebo was given on days -2 to 5, carboplatin (area under the curve 6 mg/ml) on day 1, and paclitaxel (80 mg/m2) on days 1, 8, and 15 of 21-day cycles. Patients who discontinued both carboplatin and paclitaxel before progression received blinded study drug monotherapy at an increased dose of 300-400 mg twice daily continuously. PFS was the primary endpoint. Exploratory analyses were carried out in the subgroup of patients who received blinded study drug as monotherapy. A time-varying Cox model including data from all patients was also used to evaluate treatment effect in the combination and monotherapy phases. RESULTS: A total of 136 of 337 patients randomized to veliparib plus carboplatin/paclitaxel and 58/172 patients randomized to placebo plus carboplatin/paclitaxel discontinued both carboplatin and paclitaxel before progression and continued on blinded veliparib or placebo monotherapy. In this blinded monotherapy subgroup, investigator-assessed median PFS from randomization was 25.7 months with veliparib versus 14.6 months with placebo. Hazard ratios from a time-varying Cox model favored veliparib during both combination therapy and monotherapy. Any-grade adverse events occurring in the monotherapy phase were primarily gastrointestinal. The most common grade ≥3 adverse events were neutropenia and anemia (4% each with veliparib; 5% and 2%, respectively, with placebo). CONCLUSIONS: Veliparib maintenance monotherapy had a tolerable safety profile and may extend PFS following combination chemotherapy.

Crossing N=28 Toward the Neutron Drip Line: First Measurement of Half-Lives at FRIB.

New half-lives for exotic isotopes approaching the neutron drip-line in the vicinity of N∼28 for Z=12-15 were measured at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) with the FRIB decay station initiator. The first experimental results are compared to the latest quasiparticle random phase approximation and shell-model calculations. Overall, the measured half-lives are consistent with the available theoretical descriptions and suggest a well-developed region of deformation below ^{48}Ca in the N=28 isotones. The erosion of the Z=14 subshell closure in Si is experimentally confirmed at N=28, and a reduction in the ^{38}Mg half-life is observed as compared with its isotopic neighbors, which does not seem to be predicted well based on the decay energy and deformation trends. This highlights the need for both additional data in this very exotic region, and for more advanced theoretical efforts.

Drynaria quercifolia suppresses paracetamol­induced hepatotoxicity in mice by inducing Nrf-2.

Paracetamol is a popular and safe drug preferred by victims of pain or pyrexia; however, its overdose or abuse is a growing concern worldwide. Here the hepatoprotective effect of an ethnomedicinal plant Drynaria quercifolia against paracetamol­induced toxicity in murine model is demonstrated. This fern, native to tropical countries including the Northeast India, is used by local tribes to treat inflammatory conditions. Paracetamol 500 mg/kg body weight was orally administered on alternate days for a period of 21days to mimic a chronic overdose. Drynaria quercifolia acetone extract (DQA) treatment interspaced with paracetamol significantly decreased serum biomarkers of hepatotoxicity (ALT, AST and ALP) renal toxicity (urea, creatinine), lipid peroxidation level, histological damage in liver and kidney. The protein and mRNA expressions of the transcription factor, Nrf2, and its target antioxidant genes (SOD1, CAT and GST) as well as activities of these antioxidant enzymes were downregulated by paracetamol administration but significantly recovered following the DQA treatment (Tab. 3, Fig. 5, Ref. 31). Keywords: acetaminophen/paracetamol, Drynaria quercifolia, renal toxicity, hepatotoxicity, Nrf-2.

Cumulative live birth rates following blastocyst- versus cleavage-stage embryo transfer in the first complete cycle of IVF: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Is there a difference in the odds of a live birth following blastocyst- versus cleavage-stage embryo transfer in the first complete cycle of IVF? SUMMARY ANSWER: After adjusting for indication bias, there was not enough evidence to suggest a difference in the odds of live birth following blastocyst- versus cleavage-stage embryo transfer in the first complete cycle of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Replacement of blastocyst-stage embryos has become the dominant practice in IVF but there is uncertainty about whether this technique offers an improved chance of cumulative live birth over all fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfer attempts associated with a single oocyte retrieval. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: National population-based retrospective cohort study of 100 610 couples who began their first IVF/ICSI treatment at a licenced UK clinic between 1 January 1999 and 30 July 2010. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) register on IVF/ICSI treatments using autologous gametes between 1999 and 2010 were analysed. The primary outcome was the live birth rate over the first complete cycle of IVF. Cumulative live birth rates (CLBR) were compared for couples who underwent blastocyst and cleavage transfer, and the adjusted odds of live birth over the first complete cycle were estimated for each group using binary logistic regression. This analysis was repeated within groups of female age, oocytes collected and primary versus secondary infertility. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for the imbalance in couple characteristics between treatment groups. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In total, 94 294 (93.7%) couples had a cleavage-stage embryo transfer while 6316 (6.3%) received blastocysts. Over the first complete cycle of IVF/ICSI (incorporating all fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfers associated with the first oocyte retrieval), the CLBR was increased in those who underwent blastocyst transfer (56.5%) compared to cleavage-stage embryo transfer (34.8%). However, after accounting for the imbalance between exposures, blastocyst transfer did not significantly influence the odds of live birth over the first complete cycle (adjusted odds ratio: 1.03 (0.96, 1.10)). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Limitations of our study include the retrospective nature of the HFEA dataset and availability of linked data up until 2010. We were unable to adjust for some confounders, such as smoking status, BMI and embryo quality, as these data are not collected at national level by the HFEA. Similarly, there may be unknown couple, treatment or clinic variables that may influence our results. We were unable to assess the intended stage of embryo transfer for women who did not have an embryo replaced, and therefore excluded them from our study. Perinatal outcomes were not included in our analyses and would be a useful basis for future study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings show that blastocyst-stage embryo transfer may offer an improved chance of live birth in both the first fresh and the first complete cycle of IVF/ICSI compared to cleavage-stage transfer, even in couples with typically poorer prognoses. Where possible, offering blastocyst transfer to a wider range of couples may increase cumulative success rates. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): N.J.C. received a Wolfson Foundation Intercalated Degree Research Fellowship funded by the Wolfson Foundation, through the Royal College of Physicians. This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office Postdoctoral Training Fellowship in Health Services Research and Health of the Public Research (Ref PDF/12/06) held by D.J.M. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Chief Scientist Office or the Wolfson Foundation. The funders did not have any role in the study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; nor in the decision to submit the paper for publication. None of the authors has any conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

A systematic review of the quality of clinical prediction models in in vitro fertilisation.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the best-quality clinical prediction models in IVF (including ICSI) treatment to inform clinicians and their patients of their chance of success? SUMMARY ANSWER: The review recommends the McLernon post-treatment model for predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over and up to six complete cycles of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Prediction models in IVF have not found widespread use in routine clinical practice. This could be due to their limited predictive accuracy and clinical utility. A previous systematic review of IVF prediction models, published a decade ago and which has never been updated, did not assess the methodological quality of existing models nor provided recommendations for the best-quality models for use in clinical practice. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The electronic databases OVID MEDLINE, OVID EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched systematically for primary articles published from 1978 to January 2019 using search terms on the development and/or validation (internal and external) of models in predicting pregnancy or live birth. No language or any other restrictions were applied. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The PRISMA flowchart was used for the inclusion of studies after screening. All studies reporting on the development and/or validation of IVF prediction models were included. Articles reporting on women who had any treatment elements involving donor eggs or sperm and surrogacy were excluded. The CHARMS checklist was used to extract and critically appraise the methodological quality of the included articles. We evaluated models' performance by assessing their c-statistics and plots of calibration in studies and assessed correct reporting by calculating the percentage of the TRIPOD 22 checklist items met in each study. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We identified 33 publications reporting on 35 prediction models. Seventeen articles had been published since the last systematic review. The quality of models has improved over time with regard to clinical relevance, methodological rigour and utility. The percentage of TRIPOD score for all included studies ranged from 29 to 95%, and the c-statistics of all externally validated studies ranged between 0.55 and 0.77. Most of the models predicted the chance of pregnancy/live birth for a single fresh cycle. Six models aimed to predict the chance of pregnancy/live birth per individual treatment cycle, and three predicted more clinically relevant outcomes such as cumulative pregnancy/live birth. The McLernon (pre- and post-treatment) models predict the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF per woman where a complete cycle includes all fresh and frozen embryo transfers from the same episode of ovarian stimulation. McLernon models were developed using national UK data and had the highest TRIPOD score, and the post-treatment model performed best on external validation. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: To assess the reporting quality of all included studies, we used the TRIPOD checklist, but many of the earlier IVF prediction models were developed and validated before the formal TRIPOD reporting was published in 2015. It should also be noted that two of the authors of this systematic review are authors of the McLernon model article. However, we feel we have conducted our review and made our recommendations using a fair and transparent systematic approach. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the evolving quality of IVF prediction models. Clinicians should use the most appropriate model to suit their patients' needs. We recommend the McLernon post-treatment model as a counselling tool to inform couples of their predicted chance of success over and up to six complete cycles. However, it requires further external validation to assess applicability in countries with different IVF practices and policies. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was funded by the Elphinstone Scholarship Scheme and the Assisted Reproduction Unit, University of Aberdeen. Both D.J.M. and S.B. are authors of the McLernon model article and S.B. is Editor in Chief of Human Reproduction Open. They have completed and submitted the ICMJE forms for Disclosure of potential Conflicts of Interest. The other co-authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Top 10 priorities for future infertility research: an international consensus development study† ‡.

STUDY QUESTION: Can the priorities for future research in infertility be identified? SUMMARY ANSWER: The top 10 research priorities for the four areas of male infertility, female and unexplained infertility, medically assisted reproduction and ethics, access and organization of care for people with fertility problems were identified. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Many fundamental questions regarding the prevention, management and consequences of infertility remain unanswered. This is a barrier to improving the care received by those people with fertility problems. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Potential research questions were collated from an initial international survey, a systematic review of clinical practice guidelines and Cochrane systematic reviews. A rationalized list of confirmed research uncertainties was prioritized in an interim international survey. Prioritized research uncertainties were discussed during a consensus development meeting. Using a formal consensus development method, the modified nominal group technique, diverse stakeholders identified the top 10 research priorities for each of the categories male infertility, female and unexplained infertility, medically assisted reproduction and ethics, access and organization of care. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Healthcare professionals, people with fertility problems and others (healthcare funders, healthcare providers, healthcare regulators, research funding bodies and researchers) were brought together in an open and transparent process using formal consensus methods advocated by the James Lind Alliance. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The initial survey was completed by 388 participants from 40 countries, and 423 potential research questions were submitted. Fourteen clinical practice guidelines and 162 Cochrane systematic reviews identified a further 236 potential research questions. A rationalized list of 231 confirmed research uncertainties was entered into an interim prioritization survey completed by 317 respondents from 43 countries. The top 10 research priorities for each of the four categories male infertility, female and unexplained infertility (including age-related infertility, ovarian cysts, uterine cavity abnormalities and tubal factor infertility), medically assisted reproduction (including ovarian stimulation, IUI and IVF) and ethics, access and organization of care were identified during a consensus development meeting involving 41 participants from 11 countries. These research priorities were diverse and seek answers to questions regarding prevention, treatment and the longer-term impact of infertility. They highlight the importance of pursuing research which has often been overlooked, including addressing the emotional and psychological impact of infertility, improving access to fertility treatment, particularly in lower resource settings and securing appropriate regulation. Addressing these priorities will require diverse research methodologies, including laboratory-based science, qualitative and quantitative research and population science. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used consensus development methods, which have inherent limitations, including the representativeness of the participant sample, methodological decisions informed by professional judgment and arbitrary consensus definitions. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We anticipate that identified research priorities, developed to specifically highlight the most pressing clinical needs as perceived by healthcare professionals, people with fertility problems and others, will help research funding organizations and researchers to develop their future research agenda. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was funded by the Auckland Medical Research Foundation, Catalyst Fund, Royal Society of New Zealand and Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust. G.D.A. reports research sponsorship from Abbott, personal fees from Abbott and LabCorp, a financial interest in Advanced Reproductive Care, committee membership of the FIGO Committee on Reproductive Medicine, International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies, International Federation of Fertility Societies and World Endometriosis Research Foundation, and research sponsorship of the International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies from Abbott and Ferring. Siladitya Bhattacharya reports being the Editor-in-Chief of Human Reproduction Open and editor for the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group. J.L.H.E. reports being the Editor Emeritus of Human Reproduction. A.W.H. reports research sponsorship from the Chief Scientist's Office, Ferring, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research and Wellbeing of Women and consultancy fees from AbbVie, Ferring, Nordic Pharma and Roche Diagnostics. M.L.H. reports grants from Merck, grants from Myovant, grants from Bayer, outside the submitted work and ownership in Embrace Fertility, a private fertility company. N.P.J. reports research sponsorship from AbbVie and Myovant Sciences and consultancy fees from Guerbet, Myovant Sciences, Roche Diagnostics and Vifor Pharma. J.M.L.K. reports research sponsorship from Ferring and Theramex. R.S.L. reports consultancy fees from AbbVie, Bayer, Ferring, Fractyl, Insud Pharma and Kindex and research sponsorship from Guerbet and Hass Avocado Board. B.W.M. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet, iGenomix, Merck, Merck KGaA and ObsEva. E.H.Y.N. reports research sponsorship from Merck. C.N. reports being the Co Editor-in-Chief of Fertility and Sterility and Section Editor of the Journal of Urology, research sponsorship from Ferring and retains a financial interest in NexHand. J.S. reports being employed by a National Health Service fertility clinic, consultancy fees from Merck for educational events, sponsorship to attend a fertility conference from Ferring and being a clinical subeditor of Human Fertility. A.S. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet. J.W. reports being a statistical editor for the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group. A.V. reports that he is a Statistical Editor of the Cochrane Gynaecology & Fertility Review Group and the journal Reproduction. His employing institution has received payment from Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority for his advice on review of research evidence to inform their 'traffic light' system for infertility treatment 'add-ons'. N.L.V. reports consultancy and conference fees from Ferring, Merck and Merck Sharp and Dohme. The remaining authors declare no competing interests in relation to the present work. All authors have completed the disclosure form. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Standardizing definitions and reporting guidelines for the infertility core outcome set: an international consensus development study† ‡.

STUDY QUESTION: Can consensus definitions for the core outcome set for infertility be identified in order to recommend a standardized approach to reporting? SUMMARY ANSWER: Consensus definitions for individual core outcomes, contextual statements and a standardized reporting table have been developed. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Different definitions exist for individual core outcomes for infertility. This variation increases the opportunities for researchers to engage with selective outcome reporting, which undermines secondary research and compromises clinical practice guideline development. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Potential definitions were identified by a systematic review of definition development initiatives and clinical practice guidelines and by reviewing Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group guidelines. These definitions were discussed in a face-to-face consensus development meeting, which agreed consensus definitions. A standardized approach to reporting was also developed as part of the process. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Healthcare professionals, researchers and people with fertility problems were brought together in an open and transparent process using formal consensus development methods. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Forty-four potential definitions were inventoried across four definition development initiatives, including the Harbin Consensus Conference Workshop Group and International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies, 12 clinical practice guidelines and Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group guidelines. Twenty-seven participants, from 11 countries, contributed to the consensus development meeting. Consensus definitions were successfully developed for all core outcomes. Specific recommendations were made to improve reporting. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used consensus development methods, which have inherent limitations. There was limited representation from low- and middle-income countries. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: A minimum data set should assist researchers in populating protocols, case report forms and other data collection tools. The generic reporting table should provide clear guidance to researchers and improve the reporting of their results within journal publications and conference presentations. Research funding bodies, the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials statement, and over 80 specialty journals have committed to implementing this core outcome set. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was funded by the Catalyst Fund, Royal Society of New Zealand, Auckland Medical Research Fund and Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust. Siladitya Bhattacharya reports being the Editor-in-Chief of Human Reproduction Open and an editor of the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group. J.L.H.E. reports being the Editor Emeritus of Human Reproduction. R.S.L. reports consultancy fees from Abbvie, Bayer, Ferring, Fractyl, Insud Pharma and Kindex and research sponsorship from Guerbet and Hass Avocado Board. B.W.M. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet, iGenomix, Merck, Merck KGaA and ObsEva. C.N. reports being the Editor-in-Chief of Fertility and Sterility and Section Editor of the Journal of Urology, research sponsorship from Ferring, and a financial interest in NexHand. E.H.Y.N. reports research sponsorship from Merck. A.S. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet. J.W. reports being a statistical editor for the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group. A.V. reports that he is a Statistical Editor of the Cochrane Gynaecology & Fertility Review Group and of the journal Reproduction. His employing institution has received payment from Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority for his advice on review of research evidence to inform their 'traffic light' system for infertility treatment 'add-ons'. N.L.V. reports consultancy and conference fees from Ferring, Merck and Merck Sharp and Dohme. The remaining authors declare no competing interests in relation to the work presented. All authors have completed the disclosure form. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials Initiative: 1023.

Developing a core outcome set for future infertility research: an international consensus development study† ‡.

STUDY QUESTION: Can a core outcome set to standardize outcome selection, collection and reporting across future infertility research be developed? SUMMARY ANSWER: A minimum data set, known as a core outcome set, has been developed for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews evaluating potential treatments for infertility. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Complex issues, including a failure to consider the perspectives of people with fertility problems when selecting outcomes, variations in outcome definitions and the selective reporting of outcomes on the basis of statistical analysis, make the results of infertility research difficult to interpret. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A three-round Delphi survey (372 participants from 41 countries) and consensus development workshop (30 participants from 27 countries). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Healthcare professionals, researchers and people with fertility problems were brought together in an open and transparent process using formal consensus science methods. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The core outcome set consists of: viable intrauterine pregnancy confirmed by ultrasound (accounting for singleton, twin and higher multiple pregnancy); pregnancy loss (accounting for ectopic pregnancy, miscarriage, stillbirth and termination of pregnancy); live birth; gestational age at delivery; birthweight; neonatal mortality; and major congenital anomaly. Time to pregnancy leading to live birth should be reported when applicable. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used consensus development methods which have inherent limitations, including the representativeness of the participant sample, Delphi survey attrition and an arbitrary consensus threshold. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Embedding the core outcome set within RCTs and systematic reviews should ensure the comprehensive selection, collection and reporting of core outcomes. Research funding bodies, the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) statement, and over 80 specialty journals, including the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group, Fertility and Sterility and Human Reproduction, have committed to implementing this core outcome set. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was funded by the Catalyst Fund, Royal Society of New Zealand, Auckland Medical Research Fund and Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust. The funder had no role in the design and conduct of the study, the collection, management, analysis or interpretation of data, or manuscript preparation. B.W.J.M. is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). S.B. was supported by University of Auckland Foundation Seelye Travelling Fellowship. S.B. reports being the Editor-in-Chief of Human Reproduction Open and an editor of the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility group. J.L.H.E. reports being the Editor Emeritus of Human Reproduction. J.M.L.K. reports research sponsorship from Ferring and Theramex. R.S.L. reports consultancy fees from Abbvie, Bayer, Ferring, Fractyl, Insud Pharma and Kindex and research sponsorship from Guerbet and Hass Avocado Board. B.W.J.M. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet, iGenomix, Merck, Merck KGaA and ObsEva. C.N. reports being the Co Editor-in-Chief of Fertility and Sterility and Section Editor of the Journal of Urology, research sponsorship from Ferring, and retains a financial interest in NexHand. A.S. reports consultancy fees from Guerbet. E.H.Y.N. reports research sponsorship from Merck. N.L.V. reports consultancy and conference fees from Ferring, Merck and Merck Sharp and Dohme. The remaining authors declare no competing interests in relation to the work presented. All authors have completed the disclosure form. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials Initiative: 1023.

Seed dispersal of wild radishes and its association with within-population spatial distribution.

BACKGROUND: The wild radishes, Raphanus raphanistrum and R. pugioniformis (Brassicaceae) are native to the East Mediterranean region. However, whereas R. raphanistrum is widely distributed worldwide, the endemic R. pugioniformis is limited to specific habitats. In R. raphanistrum the diaspores of the indehiscent fruits comprise glabrous, light, single-seeded segments, whereas the intact fruits of R. pugioniformis are heavy and covered with spiny backward-pointing trichomes. We aimed to investigate whether the structure of the diaspores was directly associated with long- and short-range dispersal in R. raphanistrum and R. pugioniformis, respectively. We further surveyed within-population spatial distributions, to test the hypothesis that short- and long-range dispersal contribute to a patchy vs. uniform distribution patterns of R. pugioniformis and R. raphanistrum, respectively. RESULTS: The results indicated that dispersal by wind and run-off water was substantially lower for diaspores of R. pugioniformis than for those of R. raphanistrum diaspores. Supporting the hypothesis that backward-pointing trichomes promote adherence to soil particles, the displacement on soil surface of R. pugioniformis fruits depended on their orientation relative to wind direction. Furthermore, trichome removal from fruits of R. pugioniformis significantly reduced wind velocity needed to remove fruits that were placed on soils typical of the species' natural habitats. The spatial-distribution survey results indicated a patchy distribution of R. pugioniformis populations as compared with the more uniform arrangement in the studied populations of R. raphanistrum; consistent with the unidirectional vs. homogeneous wind dispersal of the respective diaspores, with respect to wind direction. In addition, R. pugioniformis population sizes changed less between years than those of R. raphanistrum. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results indicate that fruit structure is strongly linked to dispersal ability and spatial distribution of the two closely related wild radish species. Whereas R. raphanistrum inhabits homogenous sandy soil habitats, the distribution range of R. pugioniformis includes heterogeneous environments in which growth niches are scarcer. We suggest that the different modes of dispersal have evolved as adaptive traits appropriate to the species' specific habitats.

Emollient structure and chemical functionality effects on the biomechanical function of human stratum corneum.

OBJECTIVE: Cosmetic emollients are widely used in skincare formulations due to their ability to 'soften' the skin and modulate formulation spreadability. Though emollients are commonly used, little is known about their effects on the biomechanical barrier properties of human stratum corneum (SC), which play a critical role in consumer perception of formulation efficacy. Accordingly, our objective was to provide new insights with a study involving fourteen cosmetic emollient molecules with widely varying structures, molecular weights, SC diffusivities, topological polar surface areas (TPSAs), viscosities and chemical functionalities. METHODS: Mechanical stress in the SC was measured in vitro using a substrate curvature measurement technique. Stress development due to SC drying was measured before and after topical treatment with cosmetic emollients. Emollient diffusivity and alterations to lipid content in SC after treatment were measured via ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. The maximum penetration volume of emollient in SC was characterized to elucidate mechanisms underlying emollient effects on stress. RESULTS: The application of all cosmetic emollients caused a reduction in SC mechanical stress under dehydrating conditions, and a linear correlation was discovered between emollient penetration volume and the degree of stress reduction. These molecules also induced increases in stress equilibration rate, signalling changes to SC transport kinetics. Stress equilibration rate increases linearly correlated with decreasing intensity of the νCH2 band, indicating a previously unknown interaction between cosmetic emollients and SC lipids. Stress and penetration volume results were rationalized in terms of a multi-parameter model including emollient molecular weight, diffusivity, TPSA and viscosity. CONCLUSION: We provide a new rational basis for understanding the effects of cosmetic emollient choice on biomechanical properties affecting SC barrier function and consumer perception. We demonstrate for the first time that emollients very likely reduce SC mechanical stress through their ability to take up volume when penetrating the SC, and how molecular weight, SC diffusivity, TPSA and viscosity are predictive of this ability. As cosmetic formulations continue to evolve to meet the needs of customers, emollient molecules can be selected that not only contribute to formulation texture and/or spreadability but that also leverage this novel connection between emollient penetration and SC biomechanics.

OBJECTIF: Les émollients cosmétiques sont largement utilisés dans les formulations de soins de la peau en raison de leur capacité à «adoucir¼ la peau et à moduler la capacité d'étalement de la formulation. Bien que les émollients soient couramment utilisés, on en sait peu sur leurs effets sur les propriétés de barrière biomécanique de la couche cornée humaine (SC), qui jouent un rôle essentiel dans la perception par les consommateurs de l'efficacité de la formulation. En conséquence, notre objectif était de fournir de nouvelles perspectives avec une étude impliquant quatorze molécules émollientes cosmétiques avec des structures, des poids moléculaires, des diffusivités SC, des surfaces polaires topologiques (TPSA), des viscosités et des fonctionnalités chimiques très variables. MÉTHODES: La contrainte mécanique dans le SC a été mesurée in vitro en utilisant une technique de mesure de la courbure du substrat. Le développement du stress dû au séchage SC a été mesuré avant et après un traitement topique avec des émollients cosmétiques. La diffusivité émolliente et les altérations de la teneur en lipides dans la SC après le traitement ont été mesurées par spectroscopie ATR-FTIR. Le volume de pénétration maximal de l'émollient dans SC a été caractérisé pour élucider les mécanismes sous-jacents aux effets émollients sur le stress. RÉSULTATS: L'application de tous les émollients cosmétiques a entraîné une réduction de la contrainte mécanique SC dans des conditions de déshydratation, et une corrélation linéaire a été découverte entre le volume de pénétration de l'émollient et le degré de réduction de la contrainte. Ces molécules ont également induit des augmentations du taux d'équilibrage des contraintes, signalant des changements dans la cinétique de transport SC. Le taux d'équilibrage des contraintes augmente linéairement en corrélation avec la diminution de l'intensité de la bande νCH2 , indiquant une interaction jusque-là inconnue entre les émollients cosmétiques et les lipides SC. Les résultats du stress et du volume de pénétration ont été rationalisés en termes d'un modèle multi-paramètres comprenant le poids moléculaire émollient, la diffusivité, le TPSA et la viscosité. CONCLUSION: Nous fournissons une nouvelle base rationnelle pour comprendre les effets du choix des émollients cosmétiques sur les propriétés biomécaniques affectant la fonction de barrière SC et la perception du consommateur. Nous démontrons pour la première fois que les émollients réduisent très probablement la contrainte mécanique SC grâce à leur capacité à prendre du volume lors de la pénétration du SC, et comment le poids moléculaire, la diffusivité SC, le TPSA et la viscosité sont prédictifs de cette capacité. Alors que les formulations cosmétiques continuent d'évoluer pour répondre aux besoins des clients, des molécules émollientes peuvent être sélectionnées qui contribuent non seulement à la texture et / ou à l'étalement de la formulation, mais qui exploitent également cette nouvelle connexion entre la pénétration des émollients et la biomécanique SC.

IVF for unexplained subfertility; whom should we treat?

STUDY QUESTION: Which couples with unexplained subfertility can expect increased chances of ongoing pregnancy with IVF compared to expectant management? SUMMARY ANSWER: For couples in which the woman is under 40 years of age, IVF is associated with higher chances of conception than expectant management. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The clinical indications for IVF have expanded over time from bilateral tubal blockage to include unexplained subfertility in which there is no identifiable barrier to conception. Yet, there is little evidence from randomized controlled trials that IVF is effective in these couples. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We compared outcomes in British couples with unexplained subfertility undergoing IVF (n = 40 921) from registry data to couples with the same type of subfertility on expectant management. Those couples on expectant management (defined as no intervention aside from the advice to have intercourse) comprised a prospective nation-wide Dutch cohort (n = 4875) and a retrospective regional cohort from Aberdeen, Scotland (n = 975). We excluded couples who had tried for <1 year to conceive and also those with anovulation, uni- or bilateral tubal occlusion, mild or severe endometriosis or male subfertility i.e. impaired semen quality according to World Health Organization criteria. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We matched couples who received IVF and couples on expectant management based on their characteristics to control for confounding. We fitted a Cox proportional hazards model including patient characteristics, IVF treatment and their interactions to estimate the individualized chance of conception over 1 year-either following IVF or expectant management for all combinations of patient characteristics. The endpoint was conception leading to ongoing pregnancy, defined as a foetus reaching a gestational age of at least 12 weeks. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The adjusted 1-year chance of conception was 47.9% (95% CI: 45.0-50.9) after IVF and 26.1% (95% CI: 24.2-28.0) after expectant management. The absolute difference in the average adjusted 1-year chances of conception was 21.8% (95%CI: 18.3-25.3) in favour of IVF. The effectiveness of IVF was influenced by female age, duration of subfertility and previous pregnancy. IVF was effective in women under 40 years, but the 1-year chance of an IVF conception declined sharply in women over 34 years. In contrast, in woman over 40 years of age, IVF was less effective, with an absolute difference in chance compared to expectant management of 10% or lower. Regardless of female age, IVF was also less effective in couples with a short period of secondary subfertility (1 year) who had chances of natural conception of 30% or above. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The 1-year chances of conception were based on three cohorts with different sampling mechanisms. Despite adjustment for the three most important prognostic patient characteristics, namely female age, duration of subfertility and primary or secondary subfertility, our estimates might not be free from residual confounding. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: IVF should be used selectively based on judgements on gain compared to continuing expectant management for a given couple. Our results can be used by clinicians to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility, to inform their expectations and facilitate evidence-based, shared decision making. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by Tenovus Scotland [grant G17.04]. Travel for RvE was supported by the Amsterdam Reproduction & Development Research Group [grant V.000296]. SB reports acting as editor-in-chief of HROpen. Other authors have no conflicts.

Is IUI with ovarian stimulation effective in couples with unexplained subfertility?

STUDY QUESTION: Does starting IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) within 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup increase ongoing pregnancy rates compared to expectant management in couples with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: IUI-OS is associated with higher chances of ongoing pregnancy compared to expectant management in unexplained subfertile couples, specifically those with poor prognoses of natural conception, i.e. <15% over 6 months or <25% over 1 year. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: IUI-OS is often the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained subfertility. Two randomized controlled trials compared IUI-OS to expectant management using different thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception as inclusion criteria and found conflicting results. A cohort of couples with unexplained subfertility exposed to expectant management and IUI-OS offers an opportunity to determine the chances of conception after both strategies and to evaluate whether the effect of IUI-OS depends on a couple's prognosis of natural conception. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort study on couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility who could start IUI-OS at any point after completion of the fertility workup, recruited in seven Dutch centres between January 2002 and February 2004. Decisions regarding treatment were subject to local protocols, the judgement of the clinician and the wishes of the couple. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. Follow up was censored at the start of IVF, after the last IUI cycle or at last contact and truncated at a maximum of 1.5 years after the fertility workup. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The endpoint was time to conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy. We used the sequential Cox approach comparing in each month ongoing pregnancy rates over the next 6 months of couples who started IUI-OS to couples who did not. We calculated the prognosis of natural conception for individual couples, updated this over consecutive failed cycles and evaluated whether prognosis modified the effect of starting IUI-OS. We corrected for known predictors of conception using inverse probability weighting. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Data from 1896 couples were available. There were 800 couples whom had at least one IUI-OS cycle within 1.5 years post fertility workup of whom 142 couples conceived (rate: 0.50 per couple per year, median follow up 4 months). The median period between fertility workup completion and starting IUI-OS was 6.5 months. Out of 1096 untreated couples, 386 conceived naturally (rate: 0.31 per couple per year, median follow up 7 months). Starting IUI-OS was associated with a higher chance of ongoing pregnancy by a pooled, overall hazard ratio of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.47-2.62) compared to expectant management. The effect of treatment was modified by a couple's prognosis of achieving natural conception (P = 0.01), with poorer prognoses or additional failed natural cycles being associated with a stronger effect of treatment. The predicted 6-month ongoing pregnancy rate for a couple with a prognosis of 25% at completion of the fertility workup over the next six cycles (~40% over 1 year) was 25% (95% CI: 21-28%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 9-36%) when starting IUI-OS directly. For a couple with a prognosis of 15% (25% over 1 year), these predicted rates were 17% (95% CI: 15-19%) for expectant management and 24% (95% CI: 15-32%) for starting IUI-OS. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The effect estimates are based on a prospective cohort followed up for 1.5 years after completion of the fertility workup. Although we balanced the known predictors of conception between treated and untreated couples using inverse probability weighting, observational data may be subject to residual confounding. The results need to be confirmed in external datasets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: These results explain the discrepancies between previous trials that compared IUI-OS to expectant management, but further studies are required to establish the threshold at which IUI-OS is (cost-)effective. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was facilitated by (Grant 945/12/002) from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. S.B. reports acting as Editor-in-Chief of HROpen. The other authors have no conflicts of interest.

Predicting the chances of having a baby with or without treatment at different time points in couples with unexplained subfertility.

STUDY QUESTION: Can we develop a prediction model that can estimate the chances of conception leading to live birth with and without treatment at different points in time in couples with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: Yes, a dynamic model was developed that predicted the probability of conceiving under expectant management and following active treatments (in vitro fertilisation (IVF), intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation (IUI + SO), clomiphene) at different points in time since diagnosis. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Couples with no identified cause for their subfertility continue to have a realistic chance of conceiving naturally, which makes it difficult for clinicians to decide when to intervene. Previous fertility prediction models have attempted to address this by separately estimating either the chances of natural conception or the chances of conception following certain treatments. These models only make predictions at a single point in time and are therefore inadequate for informing continued decision-making at subsequent consultations. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A population-based study of 1316 couples with unexplained subfertility attending a regional clinic between 1998 and 2011. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: A dynamic prediction model was developed that estimates the chances of conception within 6 months from the point when a diagnosis of unexplained subfertility was made. These predictions were recomputed each month to provide a dynamic assessment of the individualised chances of conception while taking account of treatment status in each month. Conception must have led to live birth and treatments included clomiphene, IUI + SO, and IVF. Predictions for natural conception were externally validated using a prospective cohort from The Netherlands. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 554 (42%) couples started fertility treatment within 2 years of their first fertility consultation. The natural conception leading to live birth rate was 0.24 natural conceptions per couple per year. Active treatment had a higher chance of conception compared to those who remained under expectant management. This association ranged from weak with clomiphene to strong with IVF [clomiphene, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.91); IUI + SO, HR = 2.90 (2.06 to 4.08); IVF, HR = 5.09 (4.04 to 6.40)]. Female age and duration of subfertility were significant predictors, without clear interaction with the relative effect of treatment. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We were unable to adjust for other potentially important predictors, e.g. measures of ovarian reserve, which were not available in the linked Grampian dataset that may have made predictions more specific. This study was conducted using single centre data meaning that it may not be generalizable to other centres. However, the model performed as well as previous models in reproductive medicine when externally validated using the Dutch cohort. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: For the first time, it is possible to estimate the chances of conception following expectant management and different fertility treatments over time in couples with unexplained subfertility. This information will help inform couples and their clinicians of their likely chances of success, which may help manage expectations, not only at diagnostic workup completion but also throughout their fertility journey. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). B.W.M. is supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, and Guerbet. None of the other authors declare any conflicts of interest.

MSR1 repeats modulate gene expression and affect risk of breast and prostate cancer.

Background: MSR1 repeats are a 36-38 bp minisatellite element that have recently been implicated in the regulation of gene expression, through copy number variation (CNV). Patients and methods: Bioinformatic and experimental methods were used to assess the distribution of MSR1 across the genome, evaluate the regulatory potential of such elements and explore the role of MSR1 elements in cancer, particularly non-familial breast cancer and prostate cancer. Results: MSR1s are predominately located at chromosome 19 and are functionally enriched in regulatory regions of the genome, particularly regions implicated in short-range regulatory activities (H3K27ac, H3K4me1 and H3K4me3). MSR1-regulated genes were found to have specific molecular roles, such as serine-protease activity (P = 4.80 × 10-7) and ion channel activity (P = 2.7 × 10-4). The kallikrein locus was found to contain a large number of MSR1 clusters, and at least six of these showed CNV. An MSR1 cluster was identified within KLK14, with 9 and 11 copies being normal variants. A significant association with the 9-copy allele and non-familial breast cancer was found in two independent populations (P = 0.004; P = 0.03). In the white British population, the minor allele conferred an increased risk of 1.21-3.51 times for all non-familial disease, or 1.7-5.3 times in early-onset disease. The 9-copy allele was also found to be associated with increased risk of prostate cancer in an independent population (odds ratio = 1.27-1.56; P =0.009). Conclusions: MSR1 repeats act as molecular switches that modulate gene expression. It is likely that CNV of MSR1 will affect risk of development of various forms of cancer, including that of breast and prostate. The MSR1 cluster at KLK14 represents the strongest risk factor identified to date in non-familial breast cancer and a significant risk factor for prostate cancer. Analysis of MSR1 genotype will allow development of precise stratification of disease risk and provide a novel target for therapeutic agents.

External validation of a dynamic prediction model for repeated predictions of natural conception over time.

STUDY QUESTION: How well does a previously developed dynamic prediction model perform in an external, geographical validation in terms of predicting the chances of natural conception at various points in time? SUMMARY ANSWER: The dynamic prediction model performs well in an external validation on a Scottish cohort. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Prediction models provide information that can aid evidence-based management of unexplained subfertile couples. We developed a dynamic prediction model for natural conception (van Eekelen model) that is able to update predictions of natural conception when couples return to their clinician after a period of unsuccessful expectant management. It is not known how well this model performs in an external population. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A record-linked registry study including the long-term follow-up of all couples who were considered unexplained subfertile following a fertility workup at a Scottish fertility clinic between 1998 and 2011. Couples with anovulation, uni/bilateral tubal occlusion, mild/severe endometriosis or impaired semen quality according to World Health Organization criteria were excluded. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy (defined as reaching a gestational age of at least 12 weeks). Follow-up was censored at the start of treatment, at the change of partner or at the end of study (31 March 2012). The performance of the van Eekelen model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination at various points in time. Additionally, we assessed the clinical utility of the model in terms of the range of the calculated predictions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of a total of 1203 couples with a median follow-up of 1 year and 3 months after the fertility workup, 398 (33%) couples conceived naturally leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Using the dynamic prediction model, the mean probability of natural conception over the course of the first year after the fertility workup was estimated at 25% (observed: 23%). After 0.5, 1 and 1.5 years of expectant management after the completion of the fertility workup, the average probability of conceiving naturally over the next year was estimated at 18% (observed: 15%), 14% (observed: 14%) and 12% (observed: 12%). Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted chances and the observed fraction of ongoing pregnancy within risk groups. Discrimination was moderate with c statistics similar to those in the internal validation, ranging from 0.60 to 0.64. The range of predicted chances was sufficiently wide to distinguish between couples having a good and poor prognosis with a minimum of zero at all times and a maximum of 55% over the first year after the workup, which decreased to maxima of 43% after 0.5 years, 34% after 1 year and 29% after 1.5 years after the fertility workup. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The model slightly overestimated the chances of conception by ~2-3% points on group level in the first-year post-fertility workup and after 0.5 years of expectant management, respectively. This is likely attributable to the fact that the exact dates of completion of the fertility workup for couples were missing and had to be estimated. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The van Eekelen model is a valid and robust tool that is ready to use in clinical practice to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility on their individualized chances of natural conception at various points in time, notably when couples return to the clinic after a period of unsuccessful expectant management. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by a Chief Scientist Office postdoctoral training fellowship in health services research and health of the public research (ref PDF/12/06). There are no conflicts of interest.

Predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilization: an external validation study.

STUDY QUESTION: Are the published pre-treatment and post-treatment McLernon models, predicting cumulative live birth rates (LBR) over multiple complete IVF cycles, valid in a different context? SUMMARY ANSWER: With minor recalibration of the pre-treatment model, both McLernon models accurately predict cumulative LBR in a different geographical context and a more recent time period. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous IVF prediction models have estimated the chance of a live birth after a single fresh embryo transfer, thereby excluding the important contribution of embryo cryopreservation and subsequent IVF cycles to cumulative LBR. In contrast, the recently developed McLernon models predict the cumulative chance of a live birth over multiple complete IVF cycles at two certain time points: (i) before initiating treatment using baseline characteristics (pre-treatment model) and (ii) after the first IVF cycle adding treatment related information to update predictions (post-treatment model). Before implementation of these models in clinical practice, their predictive performance needs to be validated in an independent cohort. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: External validation study in an independent prospective cohort of 1515 Dutch women who participated in the OPTIMIST study (NTR2657) and underwent their first IVF treatment between 2011 and 2014. Participants underwent a total of 2881 complete treatment cycles, with a complete cycle defined as all fresh and frozen thawed embryo transfers resulting from one episode of ovarian stimulation. The follow up duration was 18 months after inclusion, and the primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy leading to live birth. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Model performance was externally validated up to three complete treatment cycles, using the linear predictor as described by McLernon et al. to calculate the probability of a live birth. Discrimination was expressed by the c-statistic and calibration was depicted graphically in a calibration plot. In contrast to the original model development cohort, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC) and body weight were available in the OPTIMIST cohort, and evaluated as potential additional predictors for model improvement. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Applying the McLernon models to the OPTIMIST cohort, the c-statistic of the pre-treatment model was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) and of the post-treatment model 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.74). The calibration plot of the pre-treatment model indicated a slight overestimation of the cumulative LBR. To improve calibration, the pre-treatment model was recalibrated by subtracting 0.35 from the intercept. The post-treatment model calibration plot revealed accurate cumulative LBR predictions. After addition of AMH, AFC and body weight to the McLernon models, the c-statistic of the updated pre-treatment model improved slightly to 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.68), and of the updated post-treatment model remained at the previous level of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73). Using the recalibrated pre-treatment model, a woman aged 30 years with 2 years of primary infertility who starts ICSI treatment for male factor infertility has a chance of 40% of a live birth from the first complete cycle, increasing to 72% over three complete cycles. If this woman weighs 70 kg, has an AMH of 1.5 ng/mL and an AFC of 10 measured at the beginning of her treatment, the updated pre-treatment model revises the estimated chance of a live birth to 30% in the first complete cycle and 59% over three complete cycles. If this woman then has five retrieved oocytes, no embryos cryopreserved and a single fresh cleavage stage embryo transfer in her first ICSI cycle, the post-treatment model estimates the chances of a live birth at 28 and 58%, respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Two randomized controlled trials (RCT) evaluating the effectiveness of gonadotropin dose individualization on basis of the AFC were nested within the OPTIMIST study. The strict dosing regimens, the RCT in- and exclusion criteria and the limited follow up time of 18 months might have influenced model performance in this independent cohort. Also, consistent with the original model development study, external validation was performed using the optimistic assumption that the cumulative LBR in couples who discontinue treatment without a live birth would have been equal to that of those who continue treatment. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: After national recalibration to account for geographical differences in IVF treatment, the McLernon prediction models can be introduced as new counselling tools in clinical practice to inform patients and to complement clinical reasoning. These models are the first to offer an objective and personalized estimate of the cumulative probability of a live birth over multiple complete IVF cycles. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funds were obtained for this study. M.J.C.E., D.J.M. and S.B. have nothing to disclose. J.A.L, S.C.O, T.C.v.T. and H.LT. received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. F.J.M.B. receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Merck BV (the Netherlands) and Ferring pharmaceutics BV (the Netherlands), for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics on automated AMH assay development, and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.