Two-scale dispersal estimation for biological invasions via synthetic likelihood.

Biological invasions reshape environments and affect the ecological and economic welfare of states and communities. Such invasions advance on multiple spatial scales, complicating their control. When modeling stochastic dispersal processes, intractable likelihoods and autocorrelated data complicate parameter estimation. As with other approaches, the recent synthetic likelihood framework for stochastic models uses summary statistics to reduce this complexity; however, it additionally provides usable likelihoods, facilitating the use of existing likelihood-based machinery. Here, we extend this framework to parameterize multi-scale spatio-temporal dispersal models and compare existing and newly developed spatial summary statistics to characterize dispersal patterns. We provide general methods to evaluate potential summary statistics and present a fitting procedure that accurately estimates dispersal parameters on simulated data. Finally, we apply our methods to quantify the short and long range dispersal of Chagas disease vectors in urban Arequipa, Peru, and assess the feasibility of a purely reactive strategy to contain the invasion.

Foetal haemoglobin and the dynamics of paediatric malaria.

BACKGROUND: Although 80% of malaria occurs in children under five years of age, infants under six months of age are known to have low rates of infection and disease. It is not clear why this youngest age group is protected; possible factors include maternal antibodies, unique nutrition (breast milk), and the presence of foetal haemoglobin (HbF). This work aims to gain insight into possible mechanisms of protection, and suggest pathways for focused empirical work, by modelling a range of possible effects of foetal haemoglobin and other red blood cell (RBC) developmental changes on parasite dynamics in infants. METHODS: A set of ordinary differential equations was created to investigate the leading hypotheses about the possible protective mechanisms of HbF-containing red blood cells, in particular whether HbF suppresses parasite population growth because parasite multiplication in individual RBCs is lower, slower or absent. The model also incorporated the intrinsic changes in blood volume and haematocrit that occur with age, and the possibility of parasite affinities for HbF-containing RBCs or reticulocytes. RESULTS: The model identified several sets of conditions in which the infant remained protected, or displayed a much slower growth of parasitaemia in the first few months of life, without any intervening immune response. The most protective of the hypothesized mechanisms would be the inhibition of schizont division in foetal RBCs so that fewer merozoites are produced. The model showed that a parasite preference for HbF-containing RBCs increases protective effects for the host, while a preference for reticulocytes has little effect. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this simple model of haematological changes in infants and their effects on Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics emphasize the likely importance of HbF and RBC number as an explanatory factor in paediatric malaria, and suggest a framework for organizing related empirical research.

Developmental allometry and paediatric malaria.

WHO estimates that 80% of mortality due to malaria occurs among infants and young children. Though it has long been established that malaria disproportionately affects children under age five, our understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms for this distribution remains incomplete. Many studies use age as an indicator of exposure, but age may affect malaria burden independently of previous exposure. Not only does the severity of malaria infection change with age, but the clinical manifestation of disease does as well: younger children are more likely to suffer severe anaemia, while older children are more likely to develop cerebral malaria. Intensity of transmission and acquired immunity are important determinants of this age variation, but age differences remain consistent over varying transmission levels. Thus, age differences in clinical presentation may involve inherent age-related factors as well as still-undiscovered facets of acquired immunity, perhaps including the rates at which relevant aspects of immunity are acquired. The concept of "allometry" - the relative growth of a part in relation to that of an entire organism or to a standard - has not previously been applied in the context of malaria infection. However, because malaria affects a number of organs and cells, including the liver, red blood cells, white blood cells, and spleen, which may intrinsically develop at rates partly independent of each other and of a child's overall size, developmental allometry may influence the course and consequences of malaria infection. Here, scattered items of evidence have been collected from a variety of disciplines, aiming to suggest possible research paths for investigating exposure-independent age differences affecting clinical outcomes of malaria infection.

Prevalence and Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in People of Rural Communities of the High Jungle of Northern Peru.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi is seen exclusively in the Americas where an estimated 8 million people are infected with the parasite. Significant research in southern Peru has been conducted to understand T. cruzi infection and vector control, however, much less is known about the burden of infection and epidemiology in northern Peru. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection in humans (n=611) and domestic animals [dogs (n=106) and guinea pigs (n=206)] in communities of Cutervo Province, Peru. Sampling and diagnostic strategies differed according to species. An entomological household study (n=208) was conducted to identify the triatomine burden and species composition, as well as the prevalence of T. cruzi in vectors. Electrocardiograms (EKG) were performed on a subset of participants (n=90 T. cruzi infected participants and 170 age and sex-matched controls). The seroprevalence of T. cruzi among humans, dogs, and guinea pigs was 14.9% (95% CI: 12.2-18.0%), 19.8% (95% CI: 12.7-28.7%) and 3.3% (95% CI: 1.4-6.9%) respectively. In one community, the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was 17.2% (95% CI: 9.6-24.7%) among participants < 15 years, suggesting recent transmission. Increasing age, positive triatomines in a participant's house, and ownership of a T. cruzi positive guinea pig were independent correlates of T. cruzi infection. Only one species of triatomine was found, Panstrongylus lignarius, formerly P. herreri. Approximately forty percent (39.9%, 95% CI: 33.2-46.9%) of surveyed households were infested with this vector and 14.9% (95% CI: 10.4-20.5%) had at least one triatomine positive for T. cruzi. The cardiac abnormality of right bundle branch block was rare, but only identified in seropositive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our research documents a substantial prevalence of T. cruzi infection in Cutervo and highlights a need for greater attention and vector control efforts in northern Peru.