Mathematical modelling of the waning of anti-RBD IgG SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers after a two-dose BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination.

Background: After exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and/or vaccination there is an increase in serum antibody titers followed by a non-linear waning. Our aim was to find out if this waning of antibody titers would fit to a mathematical model. Methods: We analyzed anti-RBD (receptor binding domain) IgG antibody titers and the breakthrough infections over a ten-month period following the second dose of the mRNA BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNtech.) vaccine, in a cohort of 54 health-care workers (HCWs) who were either never infected with SARS-CoV-2 (naïve, nHCW group, n=27) or previously infected with the virus (experienced, eHCW group, n=27). Two mathematical models, exponential and power law, were used to quantify antibody waning kinetics, and we compared the relative quality of the goodness of fit to the data between both models was compared using the Akaik Information Criterion. Results: We found that the waning slopes were significantly more pronounced for the naïve when compared to the experienced HCWs in exponential (p-value: 1.801E-9) and power law (p-value: 9.399E-13) models. The waning of anti-RBD IgG antibody levels fitted significantly to both exponential (average-R2: 0.957 for nHCW and 0.954 for eHCW) and power law (average-R2: 0.991 for nHCW and 0.988 for eHCW) models, with a better fit to the power law model. In the nHCW group, titers would descend below an arbitrary 1000-units threshold at a median of 210.6 days (IQ range: 74.2). For the eHCW group, the same risk threshold would be reached at 440.0 days (IQ range: 135.2) post-vaccination. Conclusion: Two parsimonious models can explain the anti-RBD IgG antibody titer waning after vaccination. Regardless of the model used, eHCWs have lower waning slopes and longer persistence of antibody titers than nHCWs. Consequently, personalized vaccination booster schedules should be implemented according to the individual persistence of antibody levels.

Influence of past infection with SARS-CoV-2 on the response to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in health care workers: Kinetics and durability of the humoral immune response.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are an invaluable resource against COVID-19. Current vaccine shortage makes it necessary to prioritize distribution to the most appropriate segments of the population. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of 63 health care workers (HCWs) from a General Hospital. We compared antibody responses to two doses of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine between HCWs with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (experienced HCWs) and HCWs without previous infection (naïve HCWs). FINDINGS: Seven days after the first vaccine dose, HCWs with previous infection experienced a 126-fold increase in antibody levels (p<0·001). However, in the HCW naïve group, response was much lower and only five showed positive antibody levels (>50 AU). After the second dose, no significant increase in antibody levels was found in experienced HCWs, whereas in naïve HCWs, levels increased by 16-fold (p<0·001). Approximately two months post-vaccination, antibody levels were much lower in naïve HCWs compared to experienced HCWs (p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: The study shows that at least ten months post-COVID-19 infection, the immune system is still capable of producing a rapid and powerful secondary antibody response following one single vaccine dose. Additionally, we found no further improvement in antibody response to the second dose in COVID-19 experienced HCWs. Nonetheless, two months later, antibody levels were still higher for experienced HCWs. These data suggest that immune memory persists in recovered individuals; therefore, the second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in this group could be postponed until immunization of the remaining population is complete.