Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea-level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea-level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea-level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea-level observation network-particularly as related to satellite observations-in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea-level change.

Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California.

Groundwater use in California's San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1-3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

An improved equation of latitude and a global system of graticule distance coordinates.

Two innovations are presented for coordinate time-series computation. First, an improved solution is given to a century-old problem, that is the non-iterative computation of conventional geodetic (CG: latitude, longitude, height) coordinates from geocentric Cartesian (GC: x, y, z) coordinates. The accuracy is 1 nm for heights < 500 km and < 10-15 rad for latitude at any point, terrestrial or outer space. This can be 3 orders of magnitude more accurate than published non-iterative methods. Secondly, CG time series are transformed into a practical system of "graticule distance" (GD: easting, northing, height) curvilinear coordinates that, unlike the commonly used system of topocentric Cartesian (TC: east, north, up) coordinates, is global in nature without arbitrary specification of GC reference coordinates for every geodetic station. Since 2011, Nevada Geodetic Laboratory has publicly produced time series for 20,000 GPS stations in GD form that have been cited by hundreds of studies. The GD system facilitates direct comparison of positions for co-located stations. Users of GD time series are able: (1) to resolve different historical station names that have been assigned to the same physical benchmark and (2) to resolve different physical benchmarks that have been assigned the same name. This benefits historical reconstruction of benchmark occupation and local site tie analysis for reference frame integrity. GD coordinates have archival value, in that inversion back to GC coordinates is practically exact. For geodetic stations, GD time series closely emulate TC time series with rates agreeing to 0.01 mm/yr, and so can be used interchangeably.

Search for domain wall dark matter with atomic clocks on board global positioning system satellites.

Cosmological observations indicate that dark matter makes up 85% of all matter in the universe yet its microscopic composition remains a mystery. Dark matter could arise from ultralight quantum fields that form macroscopic objects. Here we use the global positioning system as a ~ 50,000 km aperture dark matter detector to search for such objects in the form of domain walls. Global positioning system navigation relies on precision timing signals furnished by atomic clocks. As the Earth moves through the galactic dark matter halo, interactions with domain walls could cause a sequence of atomic clock perturbations that propagate through the satellite constellation at galactic velocities ~ 300 km s-1. Mining 16 years of archival data, we find no evidence for domain walls at our current sensitivity level. This improves the limits on certain quadratic scalar couplings of domain wall dark matter to standard model particles by several orders of magnitude.

GPS Imaging of vertical land motion in California and Nevada: Implications for Sierra Nevada uplift.

We introduce Global Positioning System (GPS) Imaging, a new technique for robust estimation of the vertical velocity field of the Earth's surface, and apply it to the Sierra Nevada Mountain range in the western United States. Starting with vertical position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations, we first estimate vertical velocities using the MIDAS robust trend estimator, which is insensitive to undocumented steps, outliers, seasonality, and heteroscedasticity. Using the Delaunay triangulation of station locations, we then apply a weighted median spatial filter to remove velocity outliers and enhance signals common to multiple stations. Finally, we interpolate the data using weighted median estimation on a grid. The resulting velocity field is temporally and spatially robust and edges in the field remain sharp. Results from data spanning 5-20 years show that the Sierra Nevada is the most rapid and extensive uplift feature in the western United States, rising up to 2 mm/yr along most of the range. The uplift is juxtaposed against domains of subsidence attributable to groundwater withdrawal in California's Central Valley. The uplift boundary is consistently stationary, although uplift is faster over the 2011-2016 period of drought. Uplift patterns are consistent with groundwater extraction and concomitant elastic bedrock uplift, plus slower background tectonic uplift. A discontinuity in the velocity field across the southeastern edge of the Sierra Nevada reveals a contrast in lithospheric strength, suggesting a relationship between late Cenozoic uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada and evolution of the southern Walker Lane.

MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection.

Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi )/(tj-ti ) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake.

Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike-slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike-slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north-south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left-lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still-locked deeper structures. A future M6.1-6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping.

Evidence for deep magma injection beneath Lake Tahoe, Nevada-California.

A deep earthquake swarm in late 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California (Richter magnitude < 2.2; depth of 29 to 33 kilometers), was coeval with a transient displacement of 6 millimeters horizontally outward from the swarm and 8 millimeters upward measured at global positioning system station Slide Mountain (SLID) 18 kilometers to the northeast. During the first 23 days of the swarm, hypocentral depths migrated at a rate of 2.4 millimeters per second up-dip along a 40-square-kilometer structure striking north 30 degrees west and dipping 50 degrees to the northeast. SLID's transient velocity of 20 millimeters per year implies a lower bound of 200 nanostrains per year (parts per billion per year) on local strain rates, an order of magnitude greater than the 1996 to 2003 regional rate. The geodetic displacement is too large to be explained by the elastic strain from the cumulative seismic moment of the sequence, suggesting an aseismic forcing mechanism. Aspects of the swarm and SLID displacements are consistent with lower-crustal magma injection under Lake Tahoe.