Prediction of contralateral breast cancer: external validation of risk calculators in 20 international cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Three tools are currently available to predict the risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC). We aimed to compare the performance of the Manchester formula, CBCrisk, and PredictCBC in patients with invasive breast cancer (BC). METHODS: We analyzed data of 132,756 patients (4682 CBC) from 20 international studies with a median follow-up of 8.8 years. Prediction performance included discrimination, quantified as a time-dependent Area-Under-the-Curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of primary BC, and calibration, quantified as the expected-observed (E/O) ratio at 5 and 10 years and the calibration slope. RESULTS: The AUC at 10 years was: 0.58 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.57-0.59) for CBCrisk; 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for the Manchester formula; 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.66) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.56-0.62) for PredictCBC-1A (for settings where BRCA1/2 mutation status is available) and PredictCBC-1B (for the general population), respectively. The E/O at 10 years: 0.82 (95% CI 0.51-1.32) for CBCrisk; 1.53 (95% CI 0.63-3.73) for the Manchester formula; 1.28 (95% CI 0.63-2.58) for PredictCBC-1A and 1.35 (95% CI 0.65-2.77) for PredictCBC-1B. The calibration slope was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.50) for CBCrisk; 0.90 (95% CI 0.79-1.02) for PredictCBC-1A; 0.81 (95% CI 0.63-0.99) for PredictCBC-1B, and 0.39 (95% CI 0.34-0.43) for the Manchester formula. CONCLUSIONS: Current CBC risk prediction tools provide only moderate discrimination and the Manchester formula was poorly calibrated. Better predictors and re-calibration are needed to improve CBC prediction and to identify low- and high-CBC risk patients for clinical decision-making.

The efficacy of taxane chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the efficacy of taxane chemotherapy in BRCA1- and BRCA2-associated patients compared with sporadic metastatic breast cancer patients. METHODS: Response rates (RRs) to and progression-free survival (PFS) after taxane chemotherapy of 35 BRCA1-associated and 13 BRCA2-associated metastatic breast cancer patients were compared with those outcomes in 95 matched (1:2) sporadic patients. Matching was performed for age at and year of diagnosis of primary breast cancer, year of metastatic disease, and line of therapy (first vs second or third). RESULTS: Among BRCA1-associated patients, the RR was worse (objective response [OR], 23% vs 38%; progressive disease [PD], 60% vs 19%; P < 0.001); and the median PFS shorter (2.2 vs 4.9 months; P = 0.04) compared with sporadic patients. In the subgroup of hormone receptor (HRec)-negative patients, BRCA1-associated patients (n = 20) had a worse RR (OR, 20% vs 42%, respectively; PD, 70% vs 26%, respectively; P = 0.03) and a shorter PFS (1.8 vs 3.8 months; P = 0.004) compared with sporadic patients (n = 19). These outcomes in HRec-positive patients were similar in BRCA1-associated (n = 11) and sporadic (n = 61) patients (OR, 36% vs 38%; PD, 28% vs 20%; median PFS, both 5.7 months). In BRCA2-associated patients, who were mainly HRec-positive, the OR was higher than in sporadic patients (89% vs 38%, respectively; P = 0.02), whereas the median PFS was not significantly different (7.1 vs 5.7 months, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: BRCA1-associated, HRec-negative metastatic breast cancer patients were less sensitive to taxane chemotherapy than sporadic HRec-negative patients. HRec-positive BRCA1- and BRCA2-associated patients had a sensitivity to taxane chemotherapy similar to that of sporadic patients.

A family history of breast cancer will not predict female early onset breast cancer in a population-based setting.

BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting. METHODS: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer. RESULTS: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30. CONCLUSION: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age.

Clinical correlates of low-risk variants in FGFR2, TNRC9, MAP3K1, LSP1 and 8q24 in a Dutch cohort of incident breast cancer cases.

INTRODUCTION: Seven SNPs in five genomic loci were recently found to confer a mildly increased risk of breast cancer. METHODS: We have investigated the correlations between disease characteristics and the patient genotypes of these SNPs in an unselected prospective cohort of 1,267 consecutive patients with primary breast cancer. RESULTS: Heterozygote carriers and minor allele homozygote carriers for SNP rs889312 in the MAP3K1 gene were less likely to be lymph node positive at breast cancer diagnosis (P = 0.044) relative to major allele homozygote carriers. Heterozygote carriers and minor allele homozygote carriers for SNP rs3803662 near the TNCR9 gene were more likely to be diagnosed before the age of 60 years (P = 0.025) relative to major allele homozygote carriers. We also noted a correlation between the number of minor alleles of rs2981582 in FGFR2 and the average number of first-degree and second-degree relatives with breast cancer and/or ovarian cancer (P = 0.05). All other disease characteristics, including tumour size and grade, and oestrogen or progesterone receptor status, were not significantly associated with any of these variants. CONCLUSION: Some recently discovered genomic variants associated with a mildly increased risk of breast cancer are also associated with breast cancer characteristics or family history of breast cancer and ovarian cancer. These findings provide interesting new clues for further research on these low-risk susceptibility alleles.

Sensitivity to systemic therapy for metastatic breast cancer in CHEK2 1100delC mutation carriers.

PURPOSE: The role of CHEK2 in DNA repair by homologous recombination suggests that CHEK2-associated breast cancer (BC) patients might be more sensitive to chemotherapy inducing double-strand DNA breaks, but results hereon are lacking. We compared the sensitivity to first-line chemotherapy and endocrine therapy between CHEK2 1100delC and non-CHEK2 metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients. METHODS: Sixty-two CHEK2 1100delC MBC patients were selected from three cohorts genotyped for CHEK2 1100delC (one non-BRCA1/2 cohort and two sporadic cohorts). Controls were 62 non-CHEK2 MBC patients, matched for age at and year of primary BC diagnosis, and year of metastatic disease. Objective response rate (complete and partial response) to, and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) after start of first-line chemotherapy and endocrine therapy were compared between CHEK2 and non-CHEK2 patients. RESULTS: Median age at BC diagnosis was 46 and 51 years at MBC diagnosis. First-line chemotherapy consisted of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (n = 73), taxanes (n = 16), CMF(-like) chemotherapy (n = 33) and taxane/anthracycline regimens (n = 2). CHEK2 and non-CHEK2 patients had a comparable objective response rate (44 vs. 52 %). Also, PFS and OS after start of chemotherapy were comparable between both patient groups (hazard ratio 0.91; 95 % confidence interval 0.63-1.30 and 1.03; 95 % CI 0.71-1.49, respectively). Thirty-six CHEK2 and 32 non-CHEK2 patients received first-line endocrine therapy (mainly tamoxifen) for MBC. No significant differences were observed in objective response rate to, and PFS and OS after start of endocrine therapy. CONCLUSION: No differential efficacy of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy given for MBC was observed in CHEK2 versus non-CHEK2 patients.

CHEK2*1100delC homozygosity in the Netherlands--prevalence and risk of breast and lung cancer.

The 1100delC mutation in the CHEK2 gene has a carrier frequency of up to 1.5% in individuals from North-West Europe. Women heterozygous for 1100delC have an increased breast cancer risk (odds ratio 2.7). To explore the prevalence and clinical consequences of 1100delC homozygosity in the Netherlands, we genotyped a sporadic breast cancer hospital-based cohort, a group of non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families, and breast tumors from a tumor tissue bank. Three 1100delC homozygous patients were found in the cohort of 1434 sporadic breast cancer patients, suggesting an increased breast cancer risk for 1100delC homozygotes (odds ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval 0.4-32.6, P=0.3). Another 1100delC homozygote was found in 592 individuals from 108 non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families, and two more were found after testing 1706 breast tumors and confirming homozygosity on their wild-type DNA. Follow-up data was available for five homozygous patients, and remarkably, three of them had developed contralateral breast cancer. A possible relationship between 1100delC and lung cancer risk was investigated in 457 unrelated lung cancer patients but could not be confirmed. Due to the small number of 1100delC homozygotes identified, the breast cancer risk estimate associated with this genotype had limited accuracy but is probably higher than the risk in heterozygous females. Screening for CHEK2 1100delC could be beneficial in countries with a relatively high allele frequency.

Sensitivity to first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

PURPOSE: Preclinical as well as a few small retrospective, neoadjuvant studies suggest that breast cancer (cells) without functional BRCA1 or BRCA2 protein have an increased sensitivity to some chemotherapeutic agents causing double-strand DNA breaks. In this study we assessed the sensitivity to standard first-line chemotherapy of metastatic BRCA1/2-associated breast cancer, compared with sporadic breast cancer patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From the Family Cancer Clinic database, we selected 93 BRCA1- and 28 BRCA2-associated breast cancer patients treated with chemotherapy for metastatic disease before January 1, 2007. Objective response (OR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) after start of first-line chemotherapy were compared with those of sporadic patients, matched for year of birth, age at diagnosis of primary breast cancer, and year of detection of metastatic disease. RESULTS: The chemotherapy regimens most frequently used were anthracycline-based (n = 147) and cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF)/CMF like (n = 68). As compared to sporadic patients, BRCA2-associated patients had a significantly higher OR (89% v 50%; P = .001), a longer PFS (hazard ratio multivariate [HR(mult)] 0.64; P = .04) and a prolonged OS (HR(mult), 0.53; P = .005) after start of first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer. For BRCA1-associated patients, a nonsignificant trend for an increased OR (66% v 50%; P = .07), and a longer PFS (HR(mult), 0.79; P = .14) after first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer was observed, but not for OS. CONCLUSION: BRCA2-associated breast cancer is more sensitive to standard first-line chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer in comparison with sporadic breast cancer, especially to anthracyclines. For BRCA1-associated breast cancer no statistically significant higher sensitivity was observed.