Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions.

Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs, and their combined influences on native ecosystems. We found 458 cases from 95 published studies that reported individual and combined effects of invasions and a GEC stressor, which was most commonly warming, drought, or nitrogen addition. We calculated standardized effect sizes (Hedges' d) for individual and combined treatments and classified interactions as additive (sum of individual treatment effects), antagonistic (smaller than expected), or synergistic (outside the expected range). The ecological effects of GECs varied, with detrimental effects more likely with drought than the other GECs. Invasions were more strongly detrimental, on average, than GECs. Invasion and GEC interactions were mostly antagonistic, but synergistic interactions occurred in >25% of cases and mostly led to more detrimental outcomes for ecosystems. While interactive effects were most often smaller than expected from individual invasion and GEC effects, synergisms were not rare and occurred across ecological responses from the individual to the ecosystem scale. Overall, interactions between invasions and GECs were typically no worse than the effects of invasions alone, highlighting the importance of managing invasions locally as a crucial step toward reducing harm from multiple global changes.

Coordination of leaf, root, and seed traits shows the importance of whole plant economics in two semiarid grasslands.

Uncertainty persists within trait-based ecology, partly because few studies assess multiple axes of functional variation and their effect on plant performance. For 55 species from two semiarid grasslands, we quantified: (1) covariation between economic traits of leaves and absorptive roots, (2) covariation among economic traits, plant height, leaf size, and seed mass, and (3) relationships between these traits and species' abundance. Pairs of analogous leaf and root traits were at least weakly positively correlated (e.g. specific leaf area (SLA) and specific root length (SRL)). Two pairs of such traits, N content and DMC of leaves and roots, were at least moderately correlated (r > 0.5) whether species were grouped by site, taxonomic group and growth form, or life history. Root diameter was positively correlated with seed mass for all groups of species except annuals and monocots. Species with higher leaf dry matter content (LDMC) tended to be more abundant (r = 0.63). Annuals with larger seeds were more abundant (r = 0.69). Compared with global-scale syntheses with many observations from mesic ecosystems, we observed stronger correlations between analogous leaf and root traits, weaker correlations between SLA and leaf N, and stronger correlations between SRL and root N. In dry grasslands, plant persistence may require coordination of above- and belowground traits, and dense tissues may facilitate dominance.

Combining local, landscape, and regional geographies to assess plant community vulnerability to invasion impact.

Invasive species science has focused heavily on the invasive agent. However, management to protect native species also requires a proactive approach focused on resident communities and the features affecting their vulnerability to invasion impacts. Vulnerability is likely the result of factors acting across spatial scales, from local to regional, and it is the combined effects of these factors that will determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Here, we introduce an analytical framework that quantifies the scale-dependent impact of biological invasions on native richness from the shape of the native species-area relationship (SAR). We leveraged newly available, biogeographically extensive vegetation data from the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network to assess plant community vulnerability to invasion impact as a function of factors acting across scales. We analyzed more than 1000 SARs widely distributed across the USA along environmental gradients and under different levels of non-native plant cover. Decreases in native richness were consistently associated with non-native species cover, but native richness was compromised only at relatively high levels of non-native cover. After accounting for variation in baseline ecosystem diversity, net primary productivity, and human modification, ecoregions that were colder and wetter were most vulnerable to losses of native plant species at the local level, while warmer and wetter areas were most susceptible at the landscape level. We also document how the combined effects of cross-scale factors result in a heterogeneous spatial pattern of vulnerability. This pattern could not be predicted by analyses at any single scale, underscoring the importance of accounting for factors acting across scales. Simultaneously assessing differences in vulnerability between distinct plant communities at local, landscape, and regional scales provided outputs that can be used to inform policy and management aimed at reducing vulnerability to the impact of plant invasions.

Soil disturbance and invasion magnify CO2 effects on grassland productivity, reducing diversity.

Climate change, disturbance, and plant invasion threaten grassland ecosystems, but their combined and interactive effects are poorly understood. Here, we examine how the combination of disturbance and plant invasion influences the sensitivity of mixed-grass prairie to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2 ) and warming. We established subplots of intact prairie and disturbed/invaded prairie within a free-air CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppmv) by infrared warming (+1.5°C day, 3°C night) experiment and followed plant and soil responses for 5 years. Elevated CO2 initially led to moderate increases in biomass and plant diversity in both intact and disturbed/invaded prairie, but these effects shifted due to strong eCO2 responses of the invasive forb Centaurea diffusa. In the final 3 years, biomass responses to eCO2 in disturbed/invaded prairie were 10 times as large as those in intact prairie (+186% vs. +18%), resulting in reduced rather than increased plant diversity (-17% vs. +10%). At the same time, warming interacted with disturbance/invasion and year, reducing the rate of topsoil carbon recovery following disturbance. The strength of these interactions demonstrates the need to incorporate disturbance into predictions of climate change effects. In contrast to expectations from studies in intact ecosystems, eCO2 may threaten plant diversity in ecosystems subject to soil disturbance and invasion.

Trading water for carbon in the future: Effects of elevated CO2 and warming on leaf hydraulic traits in a semiarid grassland.

The effects of climate change on plants and ecosystems are mediated by plant hydraulic traits, including interspecific and intraspecific variability of trait phenotypes. Yet, integrative and realistic studies of hydraulic traits and climate change are rare. In a semiarid grassland, we assessed the response of several plant hydraulic traits to elevated CO2 (+200 ppm) and warming (+1.5 to 3°C; day to night). For leaves of five dominant species (three graminoids and two forbs), and in replicated plots exposed to 7 years of elevated CO2 , warming, or ambient climate, we measured: stomatal density and size, xylem vessel size, turgor loss point, and water potential (pre-dawn). Interspecific differences in hydraulic traits were larger than intraspecific shifts induced by elevated CO2 and/or warming. Effects of elevated CO2 were greater than effects of warming, and interactions between treatments were weak or not detected. The forbs showed little phenotypic plasticity. The graminoids had leaf water potentials and turgor loss points that were 10% to 50% less negative under elevated CO2 ; thus, climate change might cause these species to adjust their drought resistance strategy away from tolerance and toward avoidance. The C4 grass also reduced allocation of leaf area to stomata under elevated CO2 , which helps explain observations of higher soil moisture. The shifts in hydraulic traits under elevated CO2 were not, however, simply due to higher soil moisture. Integration of our results with others' indicates that common species in this grassland are more likely to adjust stomatal aperture in response to near-term climate change, rather than anatomical traits; this contrasts with apparent effects of changing CO2 on plant anatomy over evolutionary time. Future studies should assess how plant responses to drought may be constrained by the apparent shift from tolerance (via low turgor loss point) to avoidance (via stomatal regulation and/or access to deeper soil moisture).

Plant traits related to precipitation sensitivity of species and communities in semiarid shortgrass prairie.

Understanding how plant communities respond to temporal patterns of precipitation in water-limited ecosystems is necessary to predict interannual variation and trends in ecosystem properties, including forage production, biogeochemical cycling, and biodiversity. In North American shortgrass prairie, we measured plant abundance, functional traits related to growth rate and drought tolerance, and aboveground net primary productivity to identify: species-level responsiveness to precipitation (precipitation sensitivity Sspp ) across functional groups; Sspp relationships to continuous plant traits; and whether continuous trait-Sspp relationships scaled to the community level. Across 32 plant species, we found strong bivariate relationships of both leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and leaf osmotic potential Ψosm with Sspp . Yet, LDMC and specific leaf area were retained in the lowest Akaike information criterion multiple regression model, explaining 59% of Sspp . Most relationships between continuous traits and Sspp scaled to the community level but were often contingent on the presence/absence of particular species and/or land management at a site. Thus, plant communities in shortgrass prairie may shift towards slower growing, more stress-resistant species in drought years and/or chronically drier climate. These findings highlight the importance of both leaf economic and drought tolerance traits in determining species and community responses to altered precipitation.

Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation.

Human alterations to nutrient cycles and herbivore communities are affecting global biodiversity dramatically. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces to control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.

Extending the osmometer method for assessing drought tolerance in herbaceous species.

Community-scale surveys of plant drought tolerance are essential for understanding semi-arid ecosystems and community responses to climate change. Thus, there is a need for an accurate and rapid methodology for assessing drought tolerance strategies across plant functional types. The osmometer method for predicting leaf osmotic potential at full turgor (πo), a key metric of leaf-level drought tolerance, has resulted in a 50-fold increase in the measurement speed of this trait; however, the applicability of this method has only been tested in woody species and crops. Here, we assess the osmometer method for use in herbaceous grassland species and test whether πo is an appropriate plant trait for understanding drought strategies of herbaceous species as well as species distributions along climate gradients. Our model for predicting leaf turgor loss point (πTLP) from πo (πTLP = 0.80πo-0.845) is nearly identical to the model previously presented for woody species. Additionally, πo was highly correlated with πTLP for graminoid species (πtlp = 0.944πo-0.611; r2 = 0.96), a plant functional group previously flagged for having the potential to cause erroneous measurements when using an osmometer. We report that πo, measured with an osmometer, is well correlated with other traits linked to drought tolerance (namely, leaf dry matter content and leaf vulnerability to hydraulic failure) as well as climate extremes linked to water availability. The validation of the osmometer method in an herb-dominated ecosystem paves the way for rapid community-scale surveys of drought tolerance across plant functional groups, which could improve trait-based predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change.

Elevated CO2 and warming cause interactive effects on soil carbon and shifts in carbon use by bacteria.

Accurate predictions of soil C feedbacks to climate change depend on an improved understanding of responses of soil C pools and C use by soil microbial groups. We assessed soil and microbial C in a 7-year manipulation of CO2 and warming in a semi-arid grassland. Continuous field isotopic labelling under elevated CO2 further allowed us to study the dynamics of the existing C (Old C) in soil and microbes as affected by warming. Warming reduced soil C under elevated CO2 but had no impact under ambient CO2 . Loss of soil C under warming and elevated CO2 was attributed to increased proportional loss of Old C. Warming also reduced the proportion of Old C in microbes, specifically the bacteria, but not the fungi. These findings highlight that warming impacts are C pool and microbial taxa dependent and demonstrate interactive effects of warming and atmospheric CO2 on soil C.

Elevated CO2 and water addition enhance nitrogen turnover in grassland plants with implications for temporal stability.

Temporal variation in soil nitrogen (N) availability affects growth of grassland communities that differ in their use and reuse of N. In a 7-year-long climate change experiment in a semi-arid grassland, the temporal stability of plant biomass production varied with plant N turnover (reliance on externally acquired N relative to internally recycled N). Species with high N turnover were less stable in time compared to species with low N turnover. In contrast, N turnover at the community level was positively associated with asynchrony in biomass production, which in turn increased community temporal stability. Elevated CO2 and summer irrigation, but not warming, enhanced community N turnover and stability, possibly because treatments promoted greater abundance of species with high N turnover. Our study highlights the importance of plant N turnover for determining the temporal stability of individual species and plant communities affected by climate change.

Contrasting effects of specialist and generalist herbivores on resistance evolution in invasive plants.

Invasive alien plants are likely to be released from specialist herbivores and at the same time encounter biotic resistance from resident generalist herbivores in their new ranges. The Shifting Defense hypothesis predicts that this will result in evolution of decreased defense against specialist herbivores and increased defense against generalist herbivores. To test this, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis of 61 common garden studies that provide data on resistance and/or tolerance for both introduced and native populations of 32 invasive plant species. We demonstrate that introduced populations, relative to native populations, decreased their resistance against specialists, and increased their resistance against generalists. These differences were significant when resistance was measured in terms of damage caused by the herbivore, but not in terms of performance of the herbivore. Furthermore, we found the first evidence that the magnitude of resistance differences between introduced and native populations depended significantly on herbivore origin (i.e., whether the test herbivore was collected from the native or non-native range of the invasive plant). Finally, tolerance to generalists was found to be higher in introduced populations, while neither tolerance to specialists nor that to simulated herbivory differed between introduced and native plant populations. We conclude that enemy release from specialist herbivores and biotic resistance from generalist herbivores have contrasting effects on resistance evolution in invasive plants. Our results thus provide strong support for the Shifting Defense hypothesis.

Herbivory and eutrophication mediate grassland plant nutrient responses across a global climatic gradient.

Plant stoichiometry, the relative concentration of elements, is a key regulator of ecosystem functioning and is also being altered by human activities. In this paper we sought to understand the global drivers of plant stoichiometry and compare the relative contribution of climatic vs. anthropogenic effects. We addressed this goal by measuring plant elemental (C, N, P and K) responses to eutrophication and vertebrate herbivore exclusion at eighteen sites on six continents. Across sites, climate and atmospheric N deposition emerged as strong predictors of plot-level tissue nutrients, mediated by biomass and plant chemistry. Within sites, fertilization increased total plant nutrient pools, but results were contingent on soil fertility and the proportion of grass biomass relative to other functional types. Total plant nutrient pools diverged strongly in response to herbivore exclusion when fertilized; responses were largest in ungrazed plots at low rainfall, whereas herbivore grazing dampened the plant community nutrient responses to fertilization. Our study highlights (1) the importance of climate in determining plant nutrient concentrations mediated through effects on plant biomass, (2) that eutrophication affects grassland nutrient pools via both soil and atmospheric pathways and (3) that interactions among soils, herbivores and eutrophication drive plant nutrient responses at small scales, especially at water-limited sites.

Elevated CO2 induces substantial and persistent declines in forage quality irrespective of warming in mixedgrass prairie.

Increasing atmospheric [CO2 ] and temperature are expected to affect the productivity, species composition, biogeochemistry, and therefore the quantity and quality of forage available to herbivores in rangeland ecosystems. Both elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) and warming affect plant tissue chemistry through multiple direct and indirect pathways, such that the cumulative outcomes of these effects are difficult to predict. Here, we report on a 7-yr study examining effects of CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppm) and infrared warming (+1.5°C day/3°C night) under realistic field conditions on forage quality and quantity in a semiarid, mixedgrass prairie. For the three dominant forage grasses, warming effects on in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and tissue [N] were detected only in certain years, varied from negative to positive, and were relatively minor. In contrast, eCO2 substantially reduced IVDMD (two most abundant grasses) and [N] (all three dominant grass species) in most years, except the two wettest years. Furthermore, eCO2 reduced IVDMD and [N] independent of warming effects. Reduced IVDMD with eCO2 was related both to reduced [N] and increased acid detergent fiber (ADF) content of grass tissues. For the six most abundant forage species (representing 96% of total forage production), combined warming and eCO2 increased forage production by 38% and reduced forage [N] by 13% relative to ambient climate. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline in IVDMD and [N] due to combined warming and eCO2 may seem small (e.g., from 63.3 to 61.1% IVDMD and 1.25 to 1.04% [N] for Pascopyrum smithii), such shifts could have substantial consequences for the rate at which ruminants gain weight during the primary growing season in the largest remaining rangeland ecosystem in North America. With forage production increases, declining forage quality could potentially be mitigated by adaptively increasing stocking rates, and through management such as prescribed burning, fertilization at low rates, and legume interseeding to enhance forage quality.

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland.

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.

Long-term exposure to elevated CO2 enhances plant community stability by suppressing dominant plant species in a mixed-grass prairie.

Climate controls vegetation distribution across the globe, and some vegetation types are more vulnerable to climate change, whereas others are more resistant. Because resistance and resilience can influence ecosystem stability and determine how communities and ecosystems respond to climate change, we need to evaluate the potential for resistance as we predict future ecosystem function. In a mixed-grass prairie in the northern Great Plains, we used a large field experiment to test the effects of elevated CO2, warming, and summer irrigation on plant community structure and productivity, linking changes in both to stability in plant community composition and biomass production. We show that the independent effects of CO2 and warming on community composition and productivity depend on interannual variation in precipitation and that the effects of elevated CO2 are not limited to water saving because they differ from those of irrigation. We also show that production in this mixed-grass prairie ecosystem is not only relatively resistant to interannual variation in precipitation, but also rendered more stable under elevated CO2 conditions. This increase in production stability is the result of altered community dominance patterns: Community evenness increases as dominant species decrease in biomass under elevated CO2. In many grasslands that serve as rangelands, the economic value of the ecosystem is largely dependent on plant community composition and the relative abundance of key forage species. Thus, our results have implications for how we manage native grasslands in the face of changing climate.

Cheatgrass is favored by warming but not CO2 enrichment in a semi-arid grassland.

Elevated CO2 and warming may alter terrestrial ecosystems by promoting invasive plants with strong community and ecosystem impacts. Invasive plant responses to elevated CO2 and warming are difficult to predict, however, because of the many mechanisms involved, including modification of phenology, physiology, and cycling of nitrogen and water. Understanding the relative and interactive importance of these processes requires multifactor experiments under realistic field conditions. Here, we test how free-air CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppmv) and infrared warming (+1.5 °C day/3 °C night) influence a functionally and phenologically distinct invasive plant in semi-arid mixed-grass prairie. Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), a fast-growing Eurasian winter annual grass, increases fire frequency and reduces biological diversity across millions of hectares in western North America. Across 2 years, we found that warming more than tripled B. tectorum biomass and seed production, due to a combination of increased recruitment and increased growth. These results were observed with and without competition from native species, under wet and dry conditions (corresponding with tenfold differences in B. tectorum biomass), and despite the fact that warming reduced soil water. In contrast, elevated CO2 had little effect on B. tectorum invasion or soil water, while reducing soil and plant nitrogen (N). We conclude that (1) warming may expand B. tectorum's phenological niche, allowing it to more successfully colonize the extensive, invasion-resistant northern mixed-grass prairie, and (2) in ecosystems where elevated CO2 decreases N availability, CO2 may have limited effects on B. tectorum and other nitrophilic invasive species.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming.

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands. Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will grassland ANPP be to warming? We evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data (67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT; ~7-14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250-500 mm) gradients. We used regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature sensitivity of ANPP. We also related ANPP to the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), which combines precipitation and evapotranspiration to better represent moisture available for plant growth. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly related to ANPP as precipitation. We conclude that forecasted warming likely will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.

Integrated assessment of biological invasions.

As the main witnesses of the ecological and economic impacts of invasions on ecosystems around the world, ecologists seek to provide the relevant science that informs managers about the potential for invasion of specific organisms in their region(s) of interest. Yet, the assorted literature that could inform such forecasts is rarely integrated to do so, and further, the diverse nature of the data available complicates synthesis and quantitative prediction. Here we present a set of analytical tools for synthesizing different levels of distributional and/or demographic data to produce meaningful assessments of invasion potential that can guide management at multiple phases of ongoing invasions, from dispersal to colonization to proliferation. We illustrate the utility of data-synthesis and data-model assimilation approaches with case studies of three well-known invasive species--a vine, a marine mussel, and a freshwater crayfish--under current and projected future climatic conditions. Results from the integrated assessments reflect the complexity of the invasion process and show that the most relevant climatic variables can have contrasting effects or operate at different intensities across habitat types. As a consequence, for two of the study species climate trends will increase the likelihood of invasion in some habitats and decrease it in others. Our results identified and quantified both bottlenecks and windows of opportunity for invasion, mainly related to the role of human uses of the landscape or to disruption of the flow of resources. The approach we describe has a high potential to enhance model realism, explanatory insight, and predictive capability, generating information that can inform management decisions and optimize phase-specific prevention and control efforts for a wide range of biological invasions.

Disentangling root responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland.

Future ecosystem properties of grasslands will be driven largely by belowground biomass responses to climate change, which are challenging to understand due to experimental and technical constraints. We used a multi-faceted approach to explore single and combined impacts of elevated CO2 and warming on root carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in a temperate, semiarid, native grassland at the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment. To investigate the indirect, moisture mediated effects of elevated CO2, we included an irrigation treatment. We assessed root standing mass, morphology, residence time and seasonal appearance/disappearance of community-aggregated roots, as well as mass and N losses during decomposition of two dominant grass species (a C3 and a C4). In contrast to what is common in mesic grasslands, greater root standing mass under elevated CO2 resulted from increased production, unmatched by disappearance. Elevated CO2 plus warming produced roots that were longer, thinner and had greater surface area, which, together with greater standing biomass, could potentially alter root function and dynamics. Decomposition increased under environmental conditions generated by elevated CO2, but not those generated by warming, likely due to soil desiccation with warming. Elevated CO2, particularly under warming, slowed N release from C4-but not C3-roots, and consequently could indirectly affect N availability through treatment effects on species composition. Elevated CO2 and warming effects on root morphology and decomposition could offset increased C inputs from greater root biomass, thereby limiting future net C accrual in this semiarid grassland.

Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance.

Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non-native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we take a meta-analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non-native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO(2) and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. By contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and CO(2) largely inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.