Predicting wildfire ignition induced by dynamic conductor swaying under strong winds.

During high wind events with dry weather conditions, electric power systems can be the cause of catastrophic wildfires. In particular, conductor-vegetation contact has been recognized as the major ignition cause of utility-related wildfires. There is a urgent need for accurate wildfire risk analysis in support of operational decision making, such as vegetation management or preventive power shutoffs. This work studies the ignition mechanism caused by transmission conductor swaying out to nearby vegetation and resulting in flashover. Specifically, the studied limit state is defined as the conductor encroaching into prescribed minimum vegetation clearance. The stochastic characteristics of the dynamic displacement response of a multi-span transmission line are derived through efficient spectral analysis in the frequency domain. The encroachment probability at a specified location is estimated by solving a classical first-excursion problem. These problems are often addressed using static-equivalent models. However, the results show that the contribution of random wind buffeting to the conductor dynamic displacement is appreciable under turbulent strong winds. Neglecting this random and dynamic component can lead to an erroneous estimation of the risk of ignition. The forecast duration of the strong wind event is an important parameter to determine the risk of ignition. In addition, the encroachment probability is found highly sensitive to vegetation clearance and wind intensity, which highlights the need of high resolution data for these quantities. The proposed methodology offers a potential avenue for accurate and efficient ignition probability prediction, which is an important step in wildfire risk analysis.

Random field calibration with data on irregular grid for regional analyses: A case study on the bare carrying capacity of bats in Africa.

Many applications in science and engineering involve data defined at specific geospatial locations, which are often modeled as random fields. The modeling of a proper correlation function is essential for the probabilistic calibration of the random fields, but traditional methods were developed with the assumption to have observations with evenly spaced data. Available methods dealing with irregularly spaced data generally require either interpolation or computationally expensive solutions. Instead, we propose a simple approach based on least square regression to estimate the autocorrelation function. We first tested our methodology on an artificially produced dataset to assess the performance of our method. The accuracy of the method and its robustness to the level of noise in the data indicate that it is suitable for use in realistic problems. In addition, the methodology was used on a major application, the modeling of animal species connected with zoonotic diseases. Understanding the population dynamics of reservoirs of zoonotic diseases, such as bats, is a crucial first step to predict and prevent potential spillover of deadly viruses like Ebola. Due to the limited data on bats across Africa, their density and migrations can only be studied with probabilistic numerical models based on samples of the ecological bare carrying capacity (K0). For this purpose, the bare carrying capacity was modeled as a random field and its statistics calibrated with the available data. The bare carrying capacity of bats was found to be denser in central Africa. This is because climatic and environmental conditions are more suitable for the survival of bats. The proposed methodology for random field calibration was shown to be a promising approach, which can cope with large gaps in data and with complex applications involving large geographical areas and high resolution.

Estimation of Ebola's spillover infection exposure in Sierra Leone based on sociodemographic and economic factors.

Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem that depends on sociodemographic and economic (SDE) factors. Here we inquire into this phenomenon and aim at determining, quantitatively, the Ebola spillover infection exposure map and try to link it to SDE factors. To that end, we designed and conducted a survey in Sierra Leone and implement a pipeline to analyze data using regression and machine learning techniques. Our methodology is able (1) to identify the features that are best predictors of an individual's tendency to partake in behaviors that can expose them to Ebola infection, (2) to develop a predictive model about the spillover risk statistics that can be calibrated for different regions and future times, and (3) to compute a spillover exposure map for Sierra Leone. Our results and conclusions are relevant to identify the regions in Sierra Leone at risk of EVD spillover and, consequently, to design and implement policies for an effective deployment of resources (e.g., drug supplies) and other preventative measures (e.g., educational campaigns).

Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures.

Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures.

Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.

A Predictive Spatial Distribution Framework for Filovirus-Infected Bats.

Tools with predictive capabilities in regards of filovirus outbreaks are mainly anthropocentric and have disregarded the ecological dimension of the problem. Here we contribute to shift the current paradigm by studying the dynamics of the putative main zoonotic niche of filoviruses, bats, and its link to environmental drivers. We propose a framework that combines data analysis, modeling, and the evaluation of sources of variability. We implement a regression analysis using factual data to correlate environmental parameters and the presence of bats to find the distribution of resources. The information inferred by the regression is fed into a compartmental model that describes the infection state. We also account for the lack of knowledge of some parameters using a sampling/averaging technique. As a result we estimate the spatio-temporal densities of bats. Importantly, we show that our approach is able to predict where and when an outbreak is likely to appear when tested against recent epidemic data in the context of Ebola. Our framework highlights the importance of considering the feedback between the ecology and the environment in zoonotic models and sheds light on the mechanisms to propagate filoviruses geographically. We expect that our methodology can help to design prevention policies and be used as a predictive tool in the context of zoonotic diseases associated to filoviruses.