Deciphering osteoarthritis genetics across 826,690 individuals from 9 populations.

Osteoarthritis affects over 300 million people worldwide. Here, we conduct a genome-wide association study meta-analysis across 826,690 individuals (177,517 with osteoarthritis) and identify 100 independently associated risk variants across 11 osteoarthritis phenotypes, 52 of which have not been associated with the disease before. We report thumb and spine osteoarthritis risk variants and identify differences in genetic effects between weight-bearing and non-weight-bearing joints. We identify sex-specific and early age-at-onset osteoarthritis risk loci. We integrate functional genomics data from primary patient tissues (including articular cartilage, subchondral bone, and osteophytic cartilage) and identify high-confidence effector genes. We provide evidence for genetic correlation with phenotypes related to pain, the main disease symptom, and identify likely causal genes linked to neuronal processes. Our results provide insights into key molecular players in disease processes and highlight attractive drug targets to accelerate translation.

A functional genomics approach reveals suggestive quantitative trait loci associated with combined TLR4 and BCP crystal-induced inflammation and osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Basic calcium phosphate (BCP) crystals can activate the NLRP3 inflammasome and are potentially involved in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis (OA). In order to elucidate relevant inflammatory mechanisms in OA, we used a functional genomics approach to assess genetic variation influencing BCP crystal-induced cytokine production. METHOD: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from healthy volunteers who were previously genotyped and stimulated with BCP crystals and/or lipopolysaccharide (LPS) after which cytokines release was assessed. Cytokine quantitative trait locus (cQTL) mapping was performed. For in vitro validation of the cQTL located in anoctamin 3 (ANO3), PBMCs were incubated with Tamoxifen and Benzbromarone prior to stimulation. Additionally, we performed co-localisation analysis of our top cQTLs with the most recent OA meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RESULTS: We observed that BCP crystals and LPS synergistically induce IL-1ß in human PBMCs. cQTL analysis revealed several suggestive loci influencing cytokine release upon stimulation, among which are quantitative trait locus annotated to ANO3 and GLIS3. As functional validation, anoctamin inhibitors reduced IL-1ß release in PBMCs after stimulation. Co-localisation analysis showed that the GLIS3 locus was shared between LPS/BCP crystal-induced IL-1ß and genetic association with Knee OA. CONCLUSIONS: We identified and functionally validated a new locus, ANO3, associated with LPS/BCP crystal-induced inflammation in PBMCs. Moreover, the cQTL in the GLIS3 locus co-localises with the previously found locus associated with Knee OA, suggesting that this Knee OA locus might be explained through an inflammatory mechanism. These results form a basis for further exploration of inflammatory mechanisms in OA.

Plasma proteomics identifies CRTAC1 as a biomarker for osteoarthritis severity and progression.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify biomarkers for radiographic OA severity and progression acting within the inflammation and metabolic pathways. METHODS: For 3517 Rotterdam Study participants, 184 plasma protein levels were measured using Olink inflammation and cardiometabolic panels. We studied associations with severity and progression of knee, hip and hand OA and a composite overall OA burden score by multivariable regression models, adjusting for age, sex, cell counts and BMI. RESULTS: We found 18 significantly associated proteins for overall OA burden, of which 5 stayed significant after multiple testing correction: circulating cartilage acidic protein 1 (CRTAC1), cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP), thrombospondin 4, IL-18 receptor 1 (IL-18R1) and TNF ligand superfamily member 14. These proteins were also associated with progression of knee OA, with the exception of IL-18R1. The strongest association was found for the level of CRTAC1, with 1 s.d. increase in protein level resulting in an increase of 0.09 (95% CI 0.06, 0.12) in the overall OA Kellgren-Lawrence sum score (P = 2.9 × 10-8) in the model adjusted for age, sex, BMI and cell counts. This association was also present with the severity of OA in all three joints and progression of knee OA and was independent of BMI. We observed a stronger association for CRTAC1 with OA than for the well-known OA biomarker COMP. CONCLUSION: We identified several compelling biomarkers reflecting the overall OA burden and the increased risk for OA progression. CRTAC1 was the most compelling and robust biomarker for OA severity and progression. Such a biomarker may be used for disease monitoring.

WNT/beta-catenin signalling interrupts a senescence-induction cascade in human mesenchymal stem cells that restricts their expansion.

Senescence, the irreversible cell cycle arrest of damaged cells, is accompanied by a deleterious pro-inflammatory senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). Senescence and the SASP are major factors in aging, cancer, and degenerative diseases, and interfere with the expansion of adult cells in vitro, yet little is known about how to counteract their induction and deleterious effects. Paracrine signals are increasingly recognized as important senescence triggers and understanding their regulation and mode of action may provide novel opportunities to reduce senescence-induced inflammation and improve cell-based therapies. Here, we show that the signalling protein WNT3A counteracts the induction of paracrine senescence in cultured human adult mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs). We find that entry into senescence in a small subpopulation of MSCs triggers a secretome that causes a feed-forward signalling cascade that with increasing speed induces healthy cells into senescence. WNT signals interrupt this cascade by repressing cytokines that mediate this induction of senescence. Inhibition of those mediators by interference with NF-κB or interleukin 6 signalling reduced paracrine senescence in absence of WNT3A and promoted the expansion of MSCs. Our work reveals how WNT signals can antagonize senescence and has relevance not only for expansion of adult cells but can also provide new insights into senescence-associated inflammatory and degenerative diseases.

Life-Course Genome-wide Association Study Meta-analysis of Total Body BMD and Assessment of Age-Specific Effects.

Bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by DXA is used to evaluate bone health. In children, total body (TB) measurements are commonly used; in older individuals, BMD at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) is used to diagnose osteoporosis. To date, genetic variants in more than 60 loci have been identified as associated with BMD. To investigate the genetic determinants of TB-BMD variation along the life course and test for age-specific effects, we performed a meta-analysis of 30 genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of TB-BMD including 66,628 individuals overall and divided across five age strata, each spanning 15 years. We identified variants associated with TB-BMD at 80 loci, of which 36 have not been previously identified; overall, they explain approximately 10% of the TB-BMD variance when combining all age groups and influence the risk of fracture. Pathway and enrichment analysis of the association signals showed clustering within gene sets implicated in the regulation of cell growth and SMAD proteins, overexpressed in the musculoskeletal system, and enriched in enhancer and promoter regions. These findings reveal TB-BMD as a relevant trait for genetic studies of osteoporosis, enabling the identification of variants and pathways influencing different bone compartments. Only variants in ESR1 and close proximity to RANKL showed a clear effect dependency on age. This most likely indicates that the majority of genetic variants identified influence BMD early in life and that their effect can be captured throughout the life course.

Warfarin use and risk of knee and hip replacements.

BACKGROUND: Identification of modifiable risk factors and treatments for osteoarthritis (OA) are needed. Warfarin, a vitamin K antagonist, causes fetal and animal model skeletal abnormalities. Vitamin K insufficiency has been associated with OA, but whether warfarin is also detrimental to OA is not known. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study using a UK general practitioner electronic medical records database. We identified cases of knee or hip replacement (KR or HR) from among adults with atrial fibrillation newly prescribed either warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Cases were matched with four controls by age and sex. We assessed the relation of warfarin compared with DOAC use to risk of joint replacement using conditional logistic regression. We also evaluated different durations of warfarin use. RESULTS: We identified 857 subjects with KR or HR (cases), of whom 64.6% were warfarin users, and 3428 matched controls, of whom 56.1% were warfarin users (mean age 75, 47% female). Warfarin users had a 1.59 times higher risk of joint replacement than DOAC users (adjusted OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.92). Longer duration of warfarin use was associated with higher risk of joint replacement in comparison with <1 year of warfarin use. CONCLUSION: Warfarin, a vitamin K antagonist, was associated with greater risk of KR and HR (an indicator for end-stage knee OA) than DOAC use, supporting the importance of adequate vitamin K functioning in limiting OA progression.

Vitamin K antagonist anticoagulant usage is associated with increased incidence and progression of osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Vitamin K is hypothesised to play a role in osteoarthritis (OA) pathogenesis through effects on vitamin K-dependent bone and cartilage proteins, and therefore may represent a modifiable risk factor. A genetic variant in a vitamin K-dependent protein that is an essential inhibitor for cartilage calcification, matrix Gla protein (MGP), was associated with an increased risk for OA. Vitamin K antagonist anticoagulants (VKAs), such as warfarin and acenocoumarol, act as anticoagulants through inhibition of vitamin K-dependent blood coagulation proteins. VKAs likely also affect the functioning of other vitamin K-dependent proteins such as MGP. METHODS: We investigated the effect of acenocoumarol usage on progression and incidence of radiographic OA in 3494 participants of the Rotterdam Study cohort. We also examined the effect of MGP and VKORC1 single nucleotide variants on this association. RESULTS: Acenocoumarol usage was associated with an increased risk of OA incidence and progression (OR=2.50, 95% CI=1.94-3.20), both for knee (OR=2.34, 95% CI=1.67-3.22) and hip OA (OR=2.74, 95% CI=1.82-4.11). Among acenocoumarol users, carriers of the high VKORC1(BB) expression haplotype together with the MGP OA risk allele (rs1800801-T) had an increased risk of OA incidence and progression (OR=4.18, 95% CI=2.69-6.50), while this relationship was not present in non-users of that group (OR=1.01, 95% CI=0.78-1.33). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the importance of vitamin K and vitamin K-dependent proteins, as MGP, in the pathogenesis of OA. Additionally, these results may have direct implications for the clinical prevention of OA, supporting the consideration of direct oral anticoagulants in favour of VKAs.

Genome-wide association of phenotypes based on clustering patterns of hand osteoarthritis identify WNT9A as novel osteoarthritis gene.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in the understanding of the genetic architecture of osteoarthritis (OA), only two genetic loci have been identified for OA of the hand, in part explained by the complexity of the different hand joints and heterogeneity of OA pathology. METHODS: We used data from the Rotterdam Study (RSI, RSII and RSIII) to create three hand OA phenotypes based on clustering patterns of radiographic OA severity to increase power in our modest discovery genome-wide association studies in the RS (n=8700), and sought replication in an independent cohort, the Framingham Heart Study (n=1203). We used multiple approaches that leverage different levels of information and functional data to further investigate the underlying biological mechanisms and candidate genes for replicated loci. We also attempted to replicate known OA loci at other joint sites, including the hips and knees. RESULTS: We found two novel genome-wide significant loci for OA in the thumb joints. We identified WNT9A as a possible novel causal gene involved in OA pathogenesis. Furthermore, several previously identified genetic loci for OA seem to confer risk for OA across multiple joints: TGFa, RUNX2, COL27A1, ASTN2, IL11 and GDF5 loci. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a robust novel genetic locus for hand OA on chromosome 1, of which WNT9A is the most likely causal gene. In addition, multiple genetic loci were identified to be associated with OA across multiple joints. Our study confirms the potential for novel insight into the genetic architecture of OA by using biologically meaningful stratified phenotypes.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of 158,000 individuals of European ancestry identifies three loci associated with chronic back pain.

Back pain is the #1 cause of years lived with disability worldwide, yet surprisingly little is known regarding the biology underlying this symptom. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of chronic back pain (CBP). Adults of European ancestry were included from 15 cohorts in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and from the UK Biobank interim data release. CBP cases were defined as those reporting back pain present for ≥3-6 months; non-cases were included as comparisons ("controls"). Each cohort conducted genotyping using commercially available arrays followed by imputation. GWAS used logistic regression models with additive genetic effects, adjusting for age, sex, study-specific covariates, and population substructure. The threshold for genome-wide significance in the fixed-effect inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis was p<5×10(-8). Suggestive (p<5×10(-7)) and genome-wide significant (p<5×10(-8)) variants were carried forward for replication or further investigation in the remaining UK Biobank participants not included in the discovery sample. The discovery sample comprised 158,025 individuals, including 29,531 CBP cases. A genome-wide significant association was found for the intronic variant rs12310519 in SOX5 (OR 1.08, p = 7.2×10(-10)). This was subsequently replicated in 283,752 UK Biobank participants not included in the discovery sample, including 50,915 cases (OR 1.06, p = 5.3×10(-11)), and exceeded genome-wide significance in joint meta-analysis (OR 1.07, p = 4.5×10(-19)). We found suggestive associations at three other loci in the discovery sample, two of which exceeded genome-wide significance in joint meta-analysis: an intergenic variant, rs7833174, located between CCDC26 and GSDMC (OR 1.05, p = 4.4×10(-13)), and an intronic variant, rs4384683, in DCC (OR 0.97, p = 2.4×10(-10)). In this first reported meta-analysis of GWAS for CBP, we identified and replicated a genetic locus associated with CBP (SOX5). We also identified 2 other loci that reached genome-wide significance in a 2-stage joint meta-analysis (CCDC26/GSDMC and DCC).

Genome-wide association study identifies nine novel loci for 2D:4D finger ratio, a putative retrospective biomarker of testosterone exposure in utero.

The ratio of the length of the index finger to that of the ring finger (2D:4D) is sexually dimorphic and is commonly used as a non-invasive biomarker of prenatal androgen exposure. Most association studies of 2D:4D ratio with a diverse range of sex-specific traits have typically involved small sample sizes and have been difficult to replicate, raising questions around the utility and precise meaning of the measure. In the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis of 2D:4D ratio to date (N = 15 661, with replication N = 75 821), we identified 11 loci (9 novel) explaining 3.8% of the variance in mean 2D:4D ratio. We also found weak evidence for association (ß = 0.06; P = 0.02) between 2D:4D ratio and sensitivity to testosterone [length of the CAG microsatellite repeat in the androgen receptor (AR) gene] in females only. Furthermore, genetic variants associated with (adult) testosterone levels and/or sex hormone-binding globulin were not associated with 2D:4D ratio in our sample. Although we were unable to find strong evidence from our genetic study to support the hypothesis that 2D:4D ratio is a direct biomarker of prenatal exposure to androgens in healthy individuals, our findings do not explicitly exclude this possibility, and pathways involving testosterone may become apparent as the size of the discovery sample increases further. Our findings provide new insight into the underlying biology shaping 2D:4D variation in the general population.

Novel Genetic Variants for Cartilage Thickness and Hip Osteoarthritis.

Osteoarthritis is one of the most frequent and disabling diseases of the elderly. Only few genetic variants have been identified for osteoarthritis, which is partly due to large phenotype heterogeneity. To reduce heterogeneity, we here examined cartilage thickness, one of the structural components of joint health. We conducted a genome-wide association study of minimal joint space width (mJSW), a proxy for cartilage thickness, in a discovery set of 13,013 participants from five different cohorts and replication in 8,227 individuals from seven independent cohorts. We identified five genome-wide significant (GWS, P≤5·0×10-8) SNPs annotated to four distinct loci. In addition, we found two additional loci that were significantly replicated, but results of combined meta-analysis fell just below the genome wide significance threshold. The four novel associated genetic loci were located in/near TGFA (rs2862851), PIK3R1 (rs10471753), SLBP/FGFR3 (rs2236995), and TREH/DDX6 (rs496547), while the other two (DOT1L and SUPT3H/RUNX2) were previously identified. A systematic prioritization for underlying causal genes was performed using diverse lines of evidence. Exome sequencing data (n = 2,050 individuals) indicated that there were no rare exonic variants that could explain the identified associations. In addition, TGFA, FGFR3 and PIK3R1 were differentially expressed in OA cartilage lesions versus non-lesioned cartilage in the same individuals. In conclusion, we identified four novel loci (TGFA, PIK3R1, FGFR3 and TREH) and confirmed two loci known to be associated with cartilage thickness.The identified associations were not caused by rare exonic variants. This is the first report linking TGFA to human OA, which may serve as a new target for future therapies.

A systematic analysis highlights multiple long non-coding RNAs associated with cardiometabolic disorders.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many susceptibility loci for cardiometabolic disorders. Most of the associated variants reside in non-coding regions of the genome including long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), which are thought to play critical roles in diverse biological processes. Here, we leveraged data from the available GWAS meta-analyses on lipid and obesity-related traits, blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and coronary artery disease and identified 179 associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 102 lncRNAs (p-value < 2.3 × 10-7). Of these, 55 SNPs, either the lead SNP or in strong linkage disequilibrium with the lead SNP in the related loci, were selected for further investigations. Our in silico predictions and functional annotations of the SNPs as well as expression and DNA methylation analysis of their lncRNAs demonstrated several lncRNAs that fulfilled predefined criteria for being potential functional targets. In particular, we found evidence suggesting that LOC157273 (at 8p23.1) is involved in regulating serum lipid-cholesterol. Our results showed that rs4841132 in the second exon and cg17371580 in the promoter region of LOC157273 are associated with lipids; the lncRNA is expressed in liver and associates with the expression of its nearby coding gene, PPP1R3B. Collectively, we highlight a number of loci associated with cardiometabolic disorders for which the association may act through lncRNAs.

Genome-wide association and functional studies identify a role for matrix Gla protein in osteoarthritis of the hand.

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis and the leading cause of disability in the elderly. Of all the joints, genetic predisposition is strongest for OA of the hand; however, only few genetic risk loci for hand OA have been identified. Our aim was to identify novel genes associated with hand OA and examine the underlying mechanism. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study of a quantitative measure of hand OA in 12 784 individuals (discovery: 8743, replication: 4011). Genome-wide significant signals were followed up by analysing gene and allele-specific expression in a RNA sequencing dataset (n=96) of human articular cartilage. RESULTS: We found two significantly associated loci in the discovery set: at chr12 (p=3.5 × 10-10) near the matrix Gla protein (MGP) gene and at chr12 (p=6.1×10-9) near the CCDC91 gene. The DNA variant near the MGP gene was validated in three additional studies, which resulted in a highly significant association between the MGP variant and hand OA (rs4764133, Betameta=0.83, Pmeta=1.8*10-15). This variant is high linkage disequilibrium with a coding variant in MGP, a vitamin K-dependent inhibitor of cartilage calcification. Using RNA sequencing data from human primary cartilage tissue (n=96), we observed that the MGP RNA expression of the hand OA risk allele was significantly lowercompared with the MGP RNA expression of the reference allele (40.7%, p<5*10-16). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the association between the MGP variant and increased risk for hand OA is caused by a lower expression of MGP, which may increase the burden of hand OA by decreased inhibition of cartilage calcification.

Cost-effectiveness of heat and moisture exchangers compared to usual care for pulmonary rehabilitation after total laryngectomy in Poland.

The beneficial physical and psychosocial effects of heat and moisture exchangers (HMEs) for pulmonary rehabilitation of laryngectomy patients are well evidenced. However, cost-effectiveness in terms of costs per additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) has not yet been investigated. Therefore, a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of using HMEs versus usual care (UC) (including stoma covers, suction system and/or external humidifier) for patients after laryngectomy was performed. Primary outcomes were costs, QALYs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Secondary outcomes were pulmonary infections, and sleeping problems. The analysis was performed from a health care perspective of Poland, using a time horizon of 10 years and cycle length of 1 year. Transition probabilities were derived from various sources, amongst others a Polish randomized clinical trial. Quality of life data was derived from an Italian study on similar patients. Data on frequencies and mortality-related tracheobronchitis and/or pneumonia were derived from a Europe-wide survey amongst head and neck cancer experts. Substantial differences in quality-adjusted survival between the use of HMEs (3.63 QALYs) versus UC (2.95 QALYs) were observed. Total health care costs/patient were 39,553 PLN (9465 Euro) for the HME strategy and 4889 PLN (1168 Euro) for the UC strategy. HME use resulted in fewer pulmonary infections, and less sleeping problems. We could conclude that given the Polish threshold of 99,000 PLN/QALY, using HMEs is cost-effective compared to UC, resulting in 51,326 PLN/QALY (12,264 Euro/QALY) gained for patients after total laryngectomy. For the hospital period alone (2 weeks), HMEs were cost-saving: less costly and more effective.

Ex vivo water exchange performance and short-term clinical feasibility assessment of newly developed heat and moisture exchangers for pulmonary rehabilitation after total laryngectomy.

Laryngectomized patients suffer from respiratory complaints due to insufficient warming and humidification of inspired air in the upper respiratory tract. Improvement of pulmonary humidification with significant reduction of pulmonary complaints is achieved by the application of a heat and moisture exchanger (HME) over the tracheostoma. The aim of this study was to determine whether the new Provox HMEs (XM-HME and XF-HME) have a better water exchange performance than their predecessors (R-HME and L-HME, respectively; Atos Medical, Hörby, Sweden). The other aim was to assess the short-term clinical feasibility of these HMEs. The XM-HME and XF-HME were weighed at the end of inspiration and at the end of expiration at different breathing volumes produced by a healthy volunteer. The associations between weight changes, breathing volume and absolute humidity were determined using both linear and non-linear mixed effects models. Study-specific questionnaires and tally sheets were used in the clinical feasibility study. The weight change of the XM-HME is 3.6 mg, this is significantly higher than that of the R-HME (2.0 mg). The weight change of the XF-HME (2.0 mg) was not significantly higher than that of the L-HME (1.8 mg). The absolute humidity values of both XM- and XF-HME were significantly higher than that of their predecessors. The clinical feasibility study did not reveal any practical problems over the course of 3 weeks. The XM-HME has a significantly better water exchange performance than its predecessor (R-HME). Both newly designed HMEs did succeed in the clinical feasibility study.

Incidence of severe tracheobronchitis and pneumonia in laryngectomized patients: a retrospective clinical study and a European-wide survey among head and neck surgeons.

Laryngectomized patients, lacking conditioning of the breathing air in the upper respiratory tract, have reported considerable pulmonary complaints. It is assumed that these patients also run a higher risk of developing severe respiratory infections. Unfortunately, there is little scientific information available about the occurrence of respiratory infections and related health costs in these patients with and without the use of an HME. Therefore, the occurrence of respiratory infections in laryngectomized patients was investigated in the Netherlands Cancer Institute and by means of a survey among head and neck oncology surgeons throughout Europe. The number of tracheobronchitis and/or pneumonia events was retrospectively scored between 1973 and 2013 in medical records of 89 laryngectomized patients treated in our institute. To assess expert experiences and opinions regarding these pulmonary problems, a study-specific survey was developed. The survey was sent by email to head and neck surgeons from ten different countries. In the medical record study, an average of 0.129 respiratory infections per patient/year was found in non-HME users and 0.092 in HME users. In the survey (response rate HN surgeons 20 %; countries 90 %) 0.285 episodes per patient/year in non-HME users was statistically higher than the 0.066 episodes per patient/year in HME users. The average mortality in the HME user group per entire career of each physician was estimated at 0.0045, and for the non-HME user group this was 0.0152. There is a tendency that the number of tracheobronchitis and pneumonia episodes in non-HME users is higher than in HME users.

Weight-Bearing Physical Activity, Lower-Limb Muscle Mass, and Risk of Knee Osteoarthritis.

Importance: It has been demonstrated that total physical activity is not associated with risk of osteoarthritis. However, the association of different types of physical activity with incident knee osteoarthritis remains unclear. Objective: To determine whether weight-bearing recreational physical activities are associated with increased risk of incident knee osteoarthritis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study used data from the Rotterdam Study (1996 to 2009), including participants with knee x-ray measurements at baseline and follow-up examinations. Participants with knee osteoarthritis at baseline were excluded. Residents aged 45 years and older of the Ommoord district in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands were invited to join the Rotterdam Study (78% response rate). Analysis was conducted in June 2023. Exposure: Total, weight-bearing, and non-weight-bearing recreational physical activities collected by questionnaires at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis measured by knee x-ray was the primary outcome, and incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis defined by x-ray and knee pain questionnaire was the secondary outcome. The association of different types of recreational physical activity with radiographic knee osteoarthritis was examined using logistic regression within generalized estimating equation framework after adjusting for potential confounders. A prespecified stratification analysis was planned on the basis of lower-limb muscle mass index (LMI) tertiles, measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Results: A total of 5003 individuals (2804 women [56.0%]; mean [SD] age, 64.5 [7.9] years) were included. The knee osteoarthritis incident rate was 8.4% (793 of 9483 knees) for a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.33 (2.46) years. Higher weight-bearing activity was associated with increased odds of incident knee osteoarthritis (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.35; P < .001), but non-weight-bearing activity was not (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.95-1.15; P = .37). In the analysis stratified by LMI tertiles, the association of weight-bearing activity with incident osteoarthritis was found only among 431 patients in the lowest LMI tertile (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.15-2.04; P = .003), but not among patients in the middle or high LMI tertile. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that weight-bearing activity is associated with incident knee osteoarthritis in people with low levels of lower-limb muscle mass, which might be a promising avenue for tailored advice for physical activity.