The anatomy of a population-scale social network.

Large-scale human social network structure is typically inferred from digital trace samples of online social media platforms or mobile communication data. Instead, here we investigate the social network structure of a complete population, where people are connected by high-quality links sourced from administrative registers of family, household, work, school, and next-door neighbors. We examine this multilayer social opportunity structure through three common concepts in network analysis: degree, closure, and distance. Findings present how particular network layers contribute to presumably universal scale-free and small-world properties of networks. Furthermore, we suggest a novel measure of excess closure and apply this in a life-course perspective to show how the social opportunity structure of individuals varies along age, socio-economic status, and education level.

Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from behavioral data.

Monitoring the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] of a rapidly unfolding pandemic in real-time is key to successful mitigation and prevention strategies. However, existing methods based on case numbers, hospital admissions or fatalities suffer from multiple measurement biases and temporal lags due to high test positivity rates or delays in symptom development or administrative reporting. Alternative methods such as web search and social media tracking are less directly indicating epidemic prevalence over time. We instead record age-stratified anonymous contact matrices at a daily resolution using a longitudinal online-offline survey in Hungary during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach is innovative, cheap, and provides information in near real-time for estimating [Formula: see text] at a daily resolution. Moreover, it allows to complement traditional surveillance systems by signaling periods when official monitoring infrastructures are unreliable due to observational biases.

Urban hierarchy and spatial diffusion over the innovation life cycle.

Successful innovations achieve large geographical coverage by spreading across settlements and distances. For decades, spatial diffusion has been argued to take place along the urban hierarchy. Yet, the role of geographical distance was difficult to identify in hierarchical diffusion due to missing data on spreading events. In this paper, we exploit spatial patterns of individual invitations sent from registered users to new users over the entire life cycle of a social media platform. We demonstrate that hierarchical diffusion overlaps with diffusion to close distances and these factors co-evolve over the life cycle. Therefore, we disentangle them in a regression framework that estimates the yearly number of invitations sent between pairs of towns. We confirm that hierarchical diffusion prevails initially across large towns only but emerges in the full spectrum of settlements in the middle of the life cycle when adoption accelerates. Unlike in previous gravity estimations, we find that after an intensifying role of distance in the middle of the life cycle a surprisingly weak distance effect characterizes the last years of diffusion. Our results stress the dominance of urban hierarchy in spatial diffusion and inform future predictions of innovation adoption at local scales.

Universal patterns of long-distance commuting and social assortativity in cities.

Millions commute to work every day in cities and interact with colleagues, partners, friends, and strangers. Commuting facilitates the mixing of people from distant and diverse neighborhoods, but whether this has an imprint on social inclusion or instead, connections remain assortative is less explored. In this paper, we aim to better understand income sorting in social networks inside cities and investigate how commuting distance conditions the online social ties of Twitter users in the 50 largest metropolitan areas of the United States. An above-median commuting distance in cities is linked to more diverse individual networks, moreover, we find that longer commutes are associated with a nearly uniform, moderate reduction of overall social tie assortativity across all cities. This suggests a universal relation between long-distance commutes and the integration of social networks. Our results inform policy that facilitating access across distant neighborhoods can advance the social inclusion of low-income groups.

Understanding Inequalities in Ride-Hailing Services Through Simulations.

Despite the potential of ride-hailing services to democratize the labor market, they are often accused of fostering unfair working conditions and low wages. This paper investigates the effect of algorithm design decisions on wage inequality in ride-hailing platforms. We create a simplified city environment where taxis serve passengers to emulate a working week in a worker's life. Our simulation approach overcomes the difficulties stemming from both the complexity of transportation systems and the lack of data and algorithmic transparency. We calibrate the model based on empirical data, including conditions about locations of drivers and passengers, traffic, the layout of the city, and the algorithm that matches requests with drivers. Our results show that small changes in the system parameters can cause large deviations in the income distributions of drivers, leading to an unpredictable system that often distributes vastly different incomes to identically performing drivers. As suggested by recent studies about feedback loops in algorithmic systems, these short-term income differences may result in enforced and long-term wage gaps.

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations.

The urban-rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

Scaling in words on Twitter.

Scaling properties of language are a useful tool for understanding generative processes in texts. We investigate the scaling relations in citywise Twitter corpora coming from the metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas of the United States. We observe a slightly superlinear urban scaling with the city population for the total volume of the tweets and words created in a city. We then find that a certain core vocabulary follows the scaling relationship of that of the bulk text, but most words are sensitive to city size, exhibiting a super- or a sublinear urban scaling. For both regimes, we can offer a plausible explanation based on the meaning of the words. We also show that the parameters for Zipf's Law and Heaps' Law differ on Twitter from that of other texts, and that the exponent of Zipf's Law changes with city size.

Universal scaling laws in metro area election results.

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox.