Sub-arctic mosses and lichens show idiosyncratic responses to combinations of winter heatwaves, freezing and nitrogen deposition.

Arctic ecosystems are increasingly exposed to extreme climatic events throughout the year, which can affect species performance. Cryptogams (bryophytes and lichens) provide important ecosystem services in polar ecosystems but may be physiologically affected or killed by extreme events. Through field and laboratory manipulations, we compared physiological responses of seven dominant sub-Arctic cryptogams (three bryophytes, four lichens) to single events and factorial combinations of mid-winter heatwave (6°C for 7 days), re-freezing, snow removal and summer nitrogen addition. We aimed to identify which mosses and lichens are vulnerable to these abiotic extremes and if combinations would exacerbate physiological responses. Combinations of extremes resulted in stronger species responses but included idiosyncratic species-specific responses. Species that remained dormant during winter (March), irrespective of extremes, showed little physiological response during summer (August). However, winter physiological activity, and response to winter extremes, was not consistently associated with summer physiological impacts. Winter extremes affect cryptogam physiology, but summer responses appear mild, and lichens affect the photobiont more than the mycobiont. Accounting for Arctic cryptogam response to multiple climatic extremes in ecosystem functioning and modelling will require a better understanding of their winter eco-physiology and repair capabilities.

Temperature impact on the influence of penguin-derived nutrients and mosses on non-native grass in a simulated polar ecosystem.

Human activity and climate change are increasing the spread of species across the planet, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Invasion engineers, such as birds, facilitate plant growth through manuring of soil, while native vegetation influences plant germination by creating suitable microhabitats which are especially valuable in cold and dry polar regions. Here we tested how penguin-derived nitrogen, several common Antarctic moss species and warming affect seed germination and growth of the non-native grass Agrostis capillaris under laboratory conditions. Experimental settings included a simulation of contemporary season-specific Antarctic light and temperature (2°C) conditions and a +5°C warming scenario. Mosses (Andreaea depressinervis, A. regularis, Sanionia uncinata and Chorisodontium aciphyllum) incorporated a range of nitrogen content and isotopic nitrogen signatures (δ15 N) due to variation in sampling proximity to penguin colonies. Moss species greatly affected time to germination with consequences for further growth under the simulated Antarctic conditions. Grass seeds germinated 10 days earlier among A. regularis compared to S. uncinata and C. aciphyllum and 26 days earlier compared to A. depressinervis. Moss-specific effects are likely related to microclimatic differences within the moss canopy. Warming reduced this moss influence. Grass emerged on average 20 days earlier under warming, leading to increased leaf count (88%), plant height (112%) and biomass (145%). Positive correlations were identified between moss and grass nitrogen content (r = 0.377), grass biomass (r = 0.332) and height (r = 0.742) with stronger effects under the warming scenario. Transfer of nitrogen from moss to grass was confirmed by δ15 N (r = 0.803). Overall, the results suggest a shift from temperature-limited to N-limited growth of invasive plants under increased warming in the maritime Antarctic.

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2 ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m-2  yr-1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m-2  yr-1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Contrasting survival and physiological responses of sub-Arctic plant types to extreme winter warming and nitrogen.

MAIN CONCLUSION: Evergreen plants are more vulnerable than grasses and birch to snow and temperature variability in the sub-Arctic. Most Arctic climate impact studies focus on single factors, such as summer warming, while ecosystems are exposed to changes in all seasons. Through a combination of field and laboratory manipulations, we compared physiological and growth responses of dominant sub-Arctic plant types to midwinter warming events (6 °C for 7 days) in combination with freezing, simulated snow thaw and nitrogen additions. We aimed to identify if different plant types showed consistent physiological, cellular, growth and mortality responses to these abiotic stressors. Evergreen dwarf shrubs and tree seedlings showed higher mortality (40-100%) following extreme winter warming events than Betula pubescens tree seedlings and grasses (0-27%). All species had growth reductions following exposure to - 20 °C, but not all species suffered from - 10 °C irrespective of other treatments. Winter warming followed by - 20 °C resulted in the greatest mortality and was strongest among evergreen plants. Snow removal reduced the biomass for most species and this was exacerbated by subsequent freezing. Nitrogen increased the growth of B. pubescens and grasses, but not the evergreens, and interaction effects with the warming, freezing and snow treatments were minor and few. Physiological activity during the winter warming and freezing treatments was inconsistent with growth and mortality rates across the plants types. However, changes in the membrane fatty acids were associated with reduced mortality of grasses. Sub-Arctic plant communities may become dominated by grasses and deciduous plants if winter snowpack diminishes and plants are exposed to greater temperature variability in the near future.

Lichen physiological traits and growth forms affect communities of associated invertebrates.

While there has been much interest in the relationships between traits of primary producers and composition of associated invertebrate consumer communities, our knowledge is largely based on studies from vascular plants, while other types of functionally important producers, such as lichens, have rarely been considered. To address how physiological traits of lichens drive community composition of invertebrates, we collected thalli from 27 lichen species from southern Norway and quantified the communities of associated springtails, mites, and nematodes. For each lichen species, we measured key physiological thallus traits and determined whether invertebrate communities were correlated with these traits. We also explored whether invertebrate communities differed among lichen groups, categorized according to nitrogen-fixing ability, growth form, and substratum. Lichen traits explained up to 39% of the variation in abundances of major invertebrate groups. For many invertebrate groups, abundance was positively correlated with lichen N and P concentrations, N:P ratio, and the percentage of water content on saturation (WC), but had few relationships with concentrations of carbon-based secondary compounds. Diversity and taxonomic richness of invertebrate groups were sometimes also correlated with lichen N and N:P ratios. Nitrogen-fixing lichens showed higher abundance and diversity of some invertebrate groups than did non-N-fixing lichens. However, this emerged in part because most N-fixing lichens have a foliose growth form that benefits invertebrates, through, improving the microclimate, independently of N concentration. Furthermore, invertebrate communities associated with terricolous lichens were determined more by their close proximity to the soil invertebrate pool than by lichen traits. Overall, our results reveal that differences between lichen species have a large impact on the invertebrate communities that live among the thalli. Different invertebrate groups show contrasting responses to traits that are indicative of thallus quality (nutrient concentrations), and thallus growth form is often an important determinant of the invertebrate community. Given the large diversity of lichen traits and growth forms that occur in many ecosystems, lichen-invertebrate communities may be an important contributor to overall community diversity in boreal forests.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.

Global fine-resolution data on springtail abundance and community structure.

Springtails (Collembola) inhabit soils from the Arctic to the Antarctic and comprise an estimated ~32% of all terrestrial arthropods on Earth. Here, we present a global, spatially-explicit database on springtail communities that includes 249,912 occurrences from 44,999 samples and 2,990 sites. These data are mainly raw sample-level records at the species level collected predominantly from private archives of the authors that were quality-controlled and taxonomically-standardised. Despite covering all continents, most of the sample-level data come from the European continent (82.5% of all samples) and represent four habitats: woodlands (57.4%), grasslands (14.0%), agrosystems (13.7%) and scrublands (9.0%). We included sampling by soil layers, and across seasons and years, representing temporal and spatial within-site variation in springtail communities. We also provided data use and sharing guidelines and R code to facilitate the use of the database by other researchers. This data paper describes a static version of the database at the publication date, but the database will be further expanded to include underrepresented regions and linked with trait data.

Globally invariant metabolism but density-diversity mismatch in springtails.

Soil life supports the functioning and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. Springtails (Collembola) are among the most abundant soil arthropods regulating soil fertility and flow of energy through above- and belowground food webs. However, the global distribution of springtail diversity and density, and how these relate to energy fluxes remains unknown. Here, using a global dataset representing 2470 sites, we estimate the total soil springtail biomass at 27.5 megatons carbon, which is threefold higher than wild terrestrial vertebrates, and record peak densities up to 2 million individuals per square meter in the tundra. Despite a 20-fold biomass difference between the tundra and the tropics, springtail energy use (community metabolism) remains similar across the latitudinal gradient, owing to the changes in temperature with latitude. Neither springtail density nor community metabolism is predicted by local species richness, which is high in the tropics, but comparably high in some temperate forests and even tundra. Changes in springtail activity may emerge from latitudinal gradients in temperature, predation and resource limitation in soil communities. Contrasting relationships of biomass, diversity and activity of springtail communities with temperature suggest that climate warming will alter fundamental soil biodiversity metrics in different directions, potentially restructuring terrestrial food webs and affecting soil functioning.

Ecosystem response to climatic change: the importance of the cold season.

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.

Warming impacts potential germination of non-native plants on the Antarctic Peninsula.

The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed study. Viability testing and plant growth responses under simulated Antarctic soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 non-native species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated and continued development under a warming scenario. Thermal germination requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species and field soil-temperature recordings indicate that this is satisfied as far south as 72° S. Here, we show that the establishment potential of non-native species, in number and geographical range, is considerably greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches, with important implications for risk assessments of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more frequent in some regions of the Arctic and that may ultimately drive plant community shifts.

Nitrogen Inputs by Marine Vertebrates Drive Abundance and Richness in Antarctic Terrestrial Ecosystems.

Biodiversity is threatened by climate change and other human activities [1], but to assess impacts, we also need to identify the current distribution of species on Earth. Predicting abundance and richness patterns is difficult in many regions and especially so on the remote Antarctic continent, due to periods of snow cover, which limit remote sensing, and the small size of the biota present. As the Earth's coldest continent, temperature and water availability have received particular attention in understanding patterns of Antarctic biodiversity [2], whereas nitrogen availability has received less attention [3]. Nitrogen input by birds is a major nutrient source in many regions on Earth [4-7], and input from penguins and seals is associated with increased plant growth [8-10] and soil respiration [11-13] at some Antarctic locations. However, the consequences of increased nitrogen concentrations in Antarctic mosses and lichens for their associated food web has hardly been addressed [14, 15], despite the fact that nutrient status of primary producers affects the abundance and diversity of higher trophic levels [16, 17]. We show that nitrogen input and δ15N signatures from marine vertebrates are associated with terrestrial biodiversity hotspots well beyond (>1,000 m) their immediate colony borders along the Antarctic Peninsula. Invertebrate abundance and richness was two to eight times higher under penguin and elephant seal influence. The nitrogen footprint area was correlated with the vertebrate population size. These findings improve our ability to predict biogeographical patterns of Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity through knowledge of the location and size of penguin and elephant seal concentrations.

Impact of Multiple Ecological Stressors on a Sub-Arctic Ecosystem: No Interaction Between Extreme Winter Warming Events, Nitrogen Addition and Grazing.

Climate change is one of many ongoing human-induced environmental changes, but few studies consider interactive effects between multiple anthropogenic disturbances. In coastal sub-arctic heathland, we quantified the impact of a factorial design simulating extreme winter warming (WW) events (7 days at 6-7°C) combined with episodic summer nitrogen (+N) depositions (5 kg N ha-1) on plant winter physiology, plant community composition and ecosystem CO2 fluxes of an Empetrum nigrum dominated heathland during 3 consecutive years in northern Norway. We expected that the +N would exacerbate any stress effects caused by the WW treatment. During WW events, ecosystem respiration doubled, leaf respiration declined (-58%), efficiency of Photosystem II (Fv/Fm) increased (between 26 and 88%), while cell membrane fatty acids showed strong compositional changes as a result of the warming and freezing. In particular, longer fatty acid chains increased as a result of WW events, and eicosadienoic acid (C20:2) was lower when plants were exposed to the combination of WW and +N. A larval outbreak of geometrid moths (Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata) following the first WW led to a near-complete leaf defoliation of the dominant dwarf shrubs E. nigrum (-87%) and Vaccinium myrtillus (-81%) across all experimental plots. Leaf emergence timing, plant biomass or composition, NDVI and growing season ecosystem CO2 fluxes were unresponsive to the WW and +N treatments. The limited plant community response reflected the relative mild winter freezing temperatures (-6.6°C to -11.8°C) recorded after the WW events, and that the grazing pressure probably overshadowed any potential treatment effects. The grazing pressure and WW both induce damage to the evergreen shrubs and their combination should therefore be even stronger. In addition, +N could have exacerbated the impact of both extreme events, but the ecosystem responses did not support this. Therefore, our results indicate that these sub-arctic Empetrum-dominated ecosystems are highly resilient and that their responses may be limited to the event with the strongest impact.

Size and structure of bacterial, fungal and nematode communities along an Antarctic environmental gradient.

The unusually harsh environmental conditions of terrestrial Antarctic habitats result in ecosystems with simplified trophic structures, where microbial processes are especially dominant as drivers of soil-borne nutrient cycling. We examined soil-borne Antarctic communities (bacteria, fungi and nematodes) at five locations along a southern latitudinal gradient from the Falkland Islands (51 degrees S) to the base of the Antarctic Peninsula (72 degrees S), and compared principally vegetated vs. fell-field locations at three of these sites. Results of molecular (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, real-time PCR), biochemical (ergosterol, phospholipid fatty acids) and traditional microbiological (temperature- and medium-related CFU) analyses were related to key soil and environmental properties. Microbial abundance generally showed a significant positive relationship with vegetation and vegetation-associated soil factors (e.g. water content, organic C, total N). Microbial community structure was mainly related to latitude or location and latitude-dependent factors (e.g. mean temperature, NO3, pH). Furthermore, strong interactions between vegetation cover and location were observed, with the effects of vegetation cover being most pronounced in more extreme sites. These results provide insight into the main drivers of microbial community size and structure across a range of terrestrial Antarctic and sub-Antarctic habitats, potentially serving as a useful baseline to study the impact of predicted global warming on these unique and pristine ecosystems.

The effect of environmental change on vascular plant and cryptogam communities from the Falkland Islands and the Maritime Antarctic.

BACKGROUND: Antarctic terrestrial vegetation is subject to one of the most extreme climates on Earth. Currently, parts of Antarctica are one of the fastest warming regions on the planet. During 3 growing seasons, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on the diversity and abundance of coastal plant communities in the Maritime Antarctic region (cryptogams only) and the Falkland Islands (vascular plants only). We compared communities from the Falkland Islands (51 degrees S, mean annual temperature 7.9 degrees C), with those of Signy Island (60 degrees S, -2.1 degrees C) and Anchorage Island (67 degrees S, -2.6 degrees C), and experimental temperature manipulations at each of the three islands using Open Top Chambers (OTCs). RESULTS: Despite the strong difference in plant growth form dominance between the Falkland Islands and the Maritime Antarctic, communities across the gradient did not differ in total diversity and species number. During the summer months, the experimental temperature increase at 5 cm height in the vegetation was similar between the locations (0.7 degrees C across the study). In general, the response to this experimental warming was low. Total lichen cover showed a non-significant decreasing trend at Signy Island (p < 0.06). In the grass community at the Falkland Islands total vegetation cover decreased more in the OTCs than in adjacent control plots, and two species disappeared within the OTCs after only two years. This was most likely a combined consequence of a previous dry summer and the increase in temperature caused by the OTCs. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that small temperature increases may rapidly lead to decreased soil moisture, resulting in more stressful conditions for plants. The more open plant communities (grass and lichen) appeared more negatively affected by such changes than dense communities (dwarf shrub and moss).

Understanding the drivers of extensive plant damage in boreal and Arctic ecosystems: Insights from field surveys in the aftermath of damage.

The exact cause of population dieback in nature is often challenging to identify retrospectively. Plant research in northern regions has in recent decades been largely focussed on the opposite trend, namely increasing populations and higher productivity. However, a recent unexpected decline in remotely-sensed estimates of terrestrial Arctic primary productivity suggests that warmer northern lands do not necessarily result in higher productivity. As large-scale plant dieback may become more frequent at high northern latitudes with increasing frequency of extreme events, understanding the drivers of plant dieback is especially urgent. Here, we report on recent extensive damage to dominant, short, perennial heath and tundra plant populations in boreal and Arctic Norway, and assess the potential drivers of this damage. In the High-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, we recorded that 8-50% of Cassiope tetragona and Dryas octopetala shoots were dead, and that the ratios of dead shoots increased from 2014 to 2015. In boreal Norway, 38-63% of Calluna vulgaris shoots were dead, while Vaccinium myrtillus had damage to 91% of shoots in forested sites, but was healthy in non-forested sites. Analyses of numerous sources of environmental information clearly point towards a winter climate-related reason for damage to three of these four species. In Svalbard, the winters of 2011/12 and 2014/15 were documented to be unusually severe, i.e. insulation from ambient temperature fluctuation by snow was largely absent, and ground-ice enforced additional stress. In boreal Norway, the 2013/14 winter had a long period with very little snow combined with extremely low precipitation rates, something which resulted in frost drought of uncovered Calluna plants. However, extensive outbreaks of a leaf-defoliating geometrid moth were identified as the driver of Vaccinium mortality. These results suggest that weather and biotic extreme events potentially have strong impacts on the vegetation state of northern lands.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Variable temperature effects of Open Top Chambers at polar and alpine sites explained by irradiance and snow depth.

Environmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year-round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze-thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (-0.9 to 2.1 °C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R(2)  = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC-induced changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high-temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non-manipulated control plots. Frequency of low-temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.

Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades in the Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers.

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.