Characterizing Osteophyte Formation in Knee Osteoarthritis: Application of Machine Learning Quantification of a Computerized Tomography Cohort: Implications for Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Osteophytes are commonly used to diagnose and guide knee osteoarthritis (OA) treatment, but their causes are unclear. Although they are not typically the focus of knee arthroplasty surgeons, they can predict case difficulty and length. Furthermore, their extent and location may yield much information about the knee joint status. The aims of this computed tomography-based study in patients awaiting total or partial knee arthroplasty were to: (1) measure osteophyte volume in anatomical subregions and relative change as total volume increases; (2) determine whether medial and/or lateral OA affects osteophyte distribution; and (3) explore relationships between osteophytes and OA severity. METHODS: Data were obtained from 4,928 computed tomography scans. Machine-learning-based imaging analyses enabled osteophyte segmentation and quantification, divided into anatomical regions. Mean three-dimensional joint space narrowing was assessed in medial and lateral compartments. A Bayesian model assessed the uniformity of osteophyte distribution. We correlated femoral osteophyte volumes with B-scores, a validated OA status measure. RESULTS: Total tibial (25%) and femoral osteophyte volumes (75%) within each knee correlated strongly (R2 = 0.85). Medial osteophytes (65.3%) were larger than lateral osteophytes (34.6%), with similar proportions in both the femur and tibia. Osteophyte growth was found in all compartments, and as total osteophyte volume increased, the relative distribution of osteophytes between compartments did not markedly change. No evidence of variation was found in the regional distribution of osteophyte volume between knees with medial, lateral, both, or no three-dimensional joint space narrowing in the femur or tibia. There was a direct relationship between osteophyte volume and OA severity. CONCLUSIONS: Osteophyte volume increased in both medial and lateral compartments proportionally with total osteophyte volume, regardless of OA location. The peripheral position of femoral osteophytes does not appear to contribute to load-bearing. This suggests that osteophytic growth represents a 'whole-knee'/global response. This work may have broad applications for knee OA, both surgically and nonoperatively.

Comparison of 3D quantitative osteoarthritis imaging biomarkers from paired CT and MR images: data from the IMI-APPROACH study.

INTRODUCTION: MRI bone surface area and femoral bone shape (B-score) measures have been employed as quantitative endpoints in DMOAD clinical trials. Computerized Tomography (CT) imaging is more commonly used for 3D visualization of bony anatomy due to its high bone-soft tissue contrast. We aimed to compare CT and MRI assessments of 3D imaging biomarkers. METHODS: We used baseline and 24-month image data from the IMI-APPROACH 2-year prospective cohort study. Femur and tibia were automatically segmented using active appearance models, a machine-learning method, to measure 3D bone shape, area and 3D joint space width (3DJSW). Linear regression was used to test for correlation between measures. Limits of agreement and bias were tested using Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS: CT-MR pairs of the same knee were available from 434 participants (78% female). B-scores from CT and MR were strongly correlated (CCC = 0.967) with minimal bias of 0.1 (SDD = 0.227). Area measures were also correlated but showed a consistent bias (MR smaller). 3DJSW showed different biases (MR larger) in both lateral and medial compartments. DISCUSSION: The strong correlation and small B-score bias suggests that B-score may be measured reliably using either modality. It is likely that the bone surface identified using MR and CT will be at slightly different positions within the bone/cartilage boundary. The negative bone area bias suggests the MR bone boundary is inside the CT boundary producing smaller areas for MR, consistent with the positive 3DJSW bias. The lateral-medial 3DJSW difference is possibly due to a difference in knee pose during acquisition (extended for CT, flexed for MR). TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03883568.

Geochemical evolution of dissolved trace elements in space and time in the Ramganga River, India.

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of river water chemistry from its source to sinks is critical for constraining the origin, transformation, and "hotspots" of contaminants in a river basin. To provide new spatiotemporal constraints on river chemistry, dissolved trace element concentrations were measured at 17 targeted locations across the Ramganga River catchment. River water samples were collected across three seasons: pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon between 2019 and 2021. To remove the dependency of trace element concentrations on discharge, we used molar ratios, as discharge data on Indian transboundary rivers are not publicly available. The dataset reveals significant spatiotemporal variability in dissolved trace element concentrations of the Ramganga River. Samples collected upstream of Moradabad, a major industrial city in western Uttar Pradesh, are characterized by ~ 1.2-2.5 times higher average concentrations of most of the trace elements except Sc, V, Cr, Rb, and Pb, likely due to intense water-rock interactions in the headwaters. Such kind of enrichment in trace metal concentrations was also observed at sites downstream of large cities and industrial centers. However, such enrichment was not enough to bring a major change in the River Ganga chemistry, as the signals got diluted downstream of the Ramganga-Ganga confluence. The average river water composition of the Ramganga River was comparable to worldwide river water composition, albeit a few sites were characterized by very high concentrations of dissolved trace elements. Finally, we provide an outlook that calls for an assessment of stable non-traditional isotopes that are ideally suited to track the origin and transformation of elements such as Li, Mg, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Sr, Ag, Cd, Sn, Pt, and Hg in Indian rivers.

Contrasting community assembly processes structure lotic bacteria metacommunities along the river continuum.

The heterogeneous nature of lotic habitats plays an important role in the complex ecological and evolutionary processes that structure the microbial communities within them. Due to such complexity, our understanding of lotic microbial ecology still lacks conceptual frameworks for the ecological processes that shape these communities. We explored how bacterial community composition and underlying ecological assembly processes differ between lotic habitats by examining community composition and inferring community assembly processes across four major habitat types (free-living, particle-associated, biofilm on benthic stones and rocks, and sediment). This was conducted at 12 river sites from headwater streams to the main river in the River Thames, UK. Our results indicate that there are distinct differences in the bacterial communities between four major habitat types, with contrasting ecological processes shaping their community assembly processes. While the mobile free-living and particle-associated communities were consistently less diverse than the fixed sediment and biofilm communities, the latter two communities displayed higher homogeneity across the sampling sites. This indicates that the relative influence of deterministic environmental filtering is elevated in sediment and biofilm communities compared with free-living and particle-associated communities, where stochastic processes play a larger role.

Machine-learning, MRI bone shape and important clinical outcomes in osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: Osteoarthritis (OA) structural status is imperfectly classified using radiographic assessment. Statistical shape modelling (SSM), a form of machine-learning, provides precise quantification of a characteristic 3D OA bone shape. We aimed to determine the benefits of this novel measure of OA status for assessing risks of clinically important outcomes. METHODS: The study used 4796 individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. SSM-derived femur bone shape (B-score) was measured from all 9433 baseline knee MRIs. We examined the relationship between B-score, radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grade (KLG) and current and future pain and function as well as total knee replacement (TKR) up to 8 years. RESULTS: B-score repeatability supported 40 discrete grades. KLG and B-score were both associated with risk of current and future pain, functional limitation and TKR; logistic regression curves were similar. However, each KLG included a wide range of B-scores. For example, for KLG3, risk of pain was 34.4 (95% CI 31.7 to 37.0)%, but B-scores within KLG3 knees ranged from 0 to 6; for B-score 0, risk was 17.0 (16.1 to 17.9)% while for B-score 6, it was 52.1 (48.8 to 55.4)%. For TKR, KLG3 risk was 15.3 (13.3 to 17.3)%; while B-score 0 had negligible risk, B-score 6 risk was 35.6 (31.8 to 39.6)%. Age, sex and body mass index had negligible effects on association between B-score and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: B-score provides reader-independent quantification using a single time-point, providing unambiguous OA status with defined clinical risks across the whole range of disease including pre-radiographic OA. B-score heralds a step-change in OA stratification for interventions and improved personalised assessment, analogous to the T-score in osteoporosis.

Clinical outcomes and programming strategies of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator devices in paediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a UK National Cohort Study.

AIMS: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in paediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). This study describes the implant and programming strategies with clinical outcomes following implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) insertion in a well-characterized national paediatric HCM cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 90 patients undergoing ICD insertion at a median age 13 (±3.5) for primary (n = 67, 74%) or secondary prevention (n = 23, 26%) were collected from a retrospective, longitudinal multi-centre cohort of children (<16 years) with HCM from the UK. Seventy-six (84%) had an endovascular system [14 (18%) dual coil], 3 (3%) epicardial, and 11 (12%) subcutaneous system. Defibrillation threshold (DFT) testing was performed at implant in 68 (76%). Inadequate DFT in four led to implant adjustment in three patients. Over a median follow-up of 54 months (interquartile range 28-111), 25 (28%) patients had 53 appropriate therapies [ICD shock n = 45, anti-tachycardia pacing (ATP) n = 8], incidence rate 4.7 per 100 patient years (95% CI 2.9-7.6). Eight inappropriate therapies occurred in 7 (8%) patients (ICD shock n = 4, ATP n = 4), incidence rate 1.1/100 patient years (95% CI 0.4-2.5). Three patients (3%) died following arrhythmic events, despite a functioning device. Other device complications were seen in 28 patients (31%), including lead-related complications (n = 15) and infection (n = 10). No clinical, device, or programming characteristics predicted time to inappropriate therapy or lead complication. CONCLUSION: In a large national cohort of paediatric HCM patients with an ICD, device and programming strategies varied widely. No particular strategy was associated with inappropriate therapies, missed/delayed therapies, or lead complications.

Disease-Modifying Effects of a Novel Cathepsin K Inhibitor in Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: MIV-711 is a novel selective cathepsin K inhibitor with beneficial effects on bone and cartilage in preclinical osteoarthritis models. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of MIV-711 in participants with symptomatic, radiographic knee osteoarthritis. Design: 26-week randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2a study with a 26-week open-label safety extension substudy. (EudraCT: 2015-003230-26 and 2016-001096-73). Setting: Six European sites. Participants: 244 participants with primary knee osteoarthritis, Kellgren-Lawrence grade 2 or 3, and pain score of 4 to 10 on a numerical rating scale (NRS). Intervention: MIV-711, 100 (n = 82) or 200 (n = 81) mg daily, or matched placebo (n = 77). Participants (46 who initially received 200 mg/d and 4 who received placebo) received 200 mg of MIV-711 daily during the extension substudy. Measurements: The primary outcome was change in NRS pain score. The key secondary outcome was change in bone area on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Other secondary end points included cartilage thickness on quantitative MRI and type I and II collagen C-telopeptide biomarkers. Outcomes were assessed over 26 weeks. Results: Changes in NRS pain scores with MIV-711 were not statistically significant (placebo, -1.4; MIV-711, 100 mg/d, -1.7; MIV-711, 200 mg/d, -1.5). MIV-711 significantly reduced medial femoral bone area progression (P = 0.002 for 100 mg/d and 0.004 for 200 mg/d) and medial femoral cartilage thinning (P = 0.023 for 100 mg/d and 0.125 for 200 mg/d) versus placebo and substantially reduced bone and cartilage biomarker levels. Nine serious adverse events occurred in 6 participants (1 in the placebo group, 3 in the 100 mg group, and 2 in the 200 mg group); none were considered to be treatment-related. Limitation: The trial was relatively short. Conclusion: MIV-711 was not more effective than placebo for pain, but it significantly reduced bone and cartilage progression with a reassuring safety profile. This treatment may merit further evaluation as a disease-modifying osteoarthritis drug. Primary Funding Source: Medivir.

In Situ Catchment Scale Sampling of Emerging Contaminants Using Diffusive Gradients in Thin Films (DGT) and Traditional Grab Sampling: A Case Study of the River Thames, UK.

The in situ passive sampling technique, diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT), confronts many of the challenges associated with current sampling methods used for emerging contaminants (ECs) in aquatic systems. This study compared DGT and grab sampling for their suitability to screen and monitor ECs at the catchment scale in the River Thames system (U.K.) and explored their sources and environmental fate. The ubiquitous presence of endocrine disrupting chemicals, parabens, and their metabolites is of concern. This study is the first to report organophosphate esters (OPEs) in the study area. TEP (summer 13-160 and winter 18-46, ng/L) and TCPP (summer 242-4282 and winter 215-854, ng/L) were the main OPEs. For chemicals which were relatively stable in the rivers, DGT and grab sampling were in good agreement. For chemicals which showed high variation in water bodies, DGT provided a better integral of loadings and exposure than grab sampling. DGT was not as sensitive as grab sampling under the procedures employed here, but there are several options to improve it to give comparable/better performance. DGT samples require shorter preparation time for analysis in the laboratory than grab samples. Overall, DGT can be a powerful tool to characterize ECs throughout a large dynamic water system.

Method development for rapid quantification of Rn-222 in surface water and groundwater.

Understanding the risks of a developing unconventional hydrocarbons industry, including shale gas, to the chemical quality of surface water and groundwater involves firstly establishing baseline compositions against which any future changes can be assessed. Contaminants of geogenic origin are of particular interest and radon has been identified as one potential contaminant from shale sources. Robust measurement and monitoring of radon in water at environmental concentrations is essential for ensuring protection of water sources and maintaining public confidence. Traditional techniques for Rn-222 determination in water, such as inference by gamma spectrometry and direct alpha counting, are impractical for direct field measurement, and the relatively short half-life of Rn-222 (~ 3.82 days) means that longer analytical protocols from field to the laboratory may result in greater uncertainty for Rn-222 activity. Therefore, a rapid and low-cost method would be beneficial. We have developed and refined a laboratory procedure for Rn-222 monitoring using liquid scintillation counting (LSC). The accuracy of Rn-222 activities obtained via this procedure was evaluated by the analysis of almost 200 water samples collected from streams and boreholes as part of a detailed baseline investigation in the Vale of Pickering, Yorkshire, one potential location for future shale gas exploration. LSC was preferred for measurement of Rn-222 and had comparable accuracy to gamma spectrometry and direct alpha counting. The methodology provided a rapid, portable and low-maintenance option relative to the two established techniques and is shown to be a favourable choice for the measurement of radon in surface water and groundwater at environmental concentrations.

Using high-frequency phosphorus monitoring for water quality management: a case study of the upper River Itchen, UK.

Increased concentrations of phosphorus (P) in riverine systems lead to eutrophication and can contribute to other environmental effects. Chalk rivers are known to be particularly sensitive to elevated P levels. We used high-frequency (daily) automatic water sampling at five distinct locations in the upper River Itchen (Hampshire, UK) between May 2016 and June 2017 to identify the main P species (including filterable reactive phosphorus, total filterable phosphorus, total phosphorus and total particulate phosphorus) present and how these varied temporally. Our filterable reactive phosphorus (considered the biologically available fraction) data were compared with the available Environment Agency total reactive phosphorus (TRP) values over the same sampling period. Over the trial, the profiles of the P fractions were complex; the major fraction was total particulate phosphorus with the mean percentage value ranging between 69 and 82% of the total P present. Sources were likely to be attributable to wash off from agricultural activities. At all sites, the FRP and Environment Agency TRP mean concentrations over the study were comparable. However, there were a number of extended time periods (1 to 2 weeks) where the mean FRP concentration (e.g. 0.62 mg L-1) exceeded the existing regulatory values (giving a poor ecological status) for this type of river. Often, these exceedances were missed by the limited regulatory monitoring procedures undertaken by the Environment Agency. There is evidence that these spikes of elevated concentrations of P may have a biological impact on benthic invertebrate (e.g. blue-winged olive mayfly) communities that exist in these ecologically sensitive chalk streams. Further research is required to assess the ecological impact of P and how this might have implications for the development of future environmental regulations.

Nutrient and microbial water quality of the upper Ganga River, India: identification of pollution sources.

The Ganga River is facing mounting environmental pressures due to rapidly increasing human population, urbanisation, industrialisation and agricultural intensification, resulting in worsening water quality, ecological status and impacts on human health. A combined inorganic chemical, algal and bacterial survey (using flow cytometry and 16S rRNA gene sequencing) along the upper and middle Ganga (from the Himalayan foothills to Kanpur) was conducted under pre-monsoon conditions. The upper Ganga had total phosphorus (TP) and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations of less than 100 µg l-1 and 1.0 mg l-1, but water quality declined at Kannauj (TP = 420 µg l-1) due to major nutrient pollution inputs from human-impacted tributaries (principally the Ramganga and Kali Rivers). The phosphorus and nitrogen loads in these two tributaries and the Yamuna were dominated by soluble reactive phosphorus and ammonium, with high bacterial loads and large numbers of taxa indicative of pathogen and faecal organisms, strongly suggesting sewage pollution sources. The high nutrient concentrations, low flows, warm water and high solar radiation resulted in major algal blooms in the Kali and Ramganga, which greatly impacted the Ganga. Microbial communities were dominated by members of the Phylum Proteobacteria, Bacteriodetes and Cyanobacteria, with communities showing a clear upstream to downstream transition in community composition. To improve the water quality of the middle Ganga, and decrease ecological and human health risks, future mitigation must reduce urban wastewater inputs in the urbanised tributaries of the Ramganga, Kali and Yamuna Rivers.

Patellofemoral morphology is not related to pain using three-dimensional quantitative analysis in an older population: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

Objectives: Current structural associations of patellofemoral pain (PFP) are based on 2D imaging methodology with inherent measurement uncertainty due to positioning and rotation. This study employed novel technology to create 3D measures of commonly described patellofemoral joint imaging features and compared these features in people with and without PFP in a large cohort. Methods: We compared two groups from the Osteoarthritis Initiative: one with localized PFP and pain on stairs, and a control group with no knee pain; both groups had no radiographic OA. MRI bone surfaces were automatically segmented and aligned using active appearance models. We applied t-tests, logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis to compare 13 imaging features (including patella position, trochlear morphology, facet area and tilt) converted into 3D equivalents, and a measure of overall 3D shape. Results: One hundred and fifteen knees with PFP (mean age 59.7, BMI 27.5 kg/m2, female 58.2%) and 438 without PFP (mean age 63.6, BMI 26.9 kg/m2, female 52.9%) were included. After correction for multiple testing, no statistically significant differences were found between groups for any of the 3D imaging features or their combinations. A statistically significant discrimination was noted for overall 3D shape between genders, confirming the validity of the 3D measures. Conclusion: Challenging current perceptions, no differences in patellofemoral morphology were found between older people with and without PFP using 3D quantitative imaging analysis. Further work is needed to see if these findings are replicated in a younger PFP population.

Repeatability and response to therapy of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers in rheumatoid arthritis in a large multicentre trial setting.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the repeatability and response to therapy of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI biomarkers of synovitis in the hand and wrist of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, and in particular the performance of the transfer constant K trans , in a multicentre trial setting. METHODS: DCE-MRI and RA MRI scoring (RAMRIS) were performed with meticulous standardisation at baseline and 6 and 24 weeks in a substudy of fostamatinib monotherapy in reducing synovitis compared with placebo or adalimumab. Analysis employed statistical shape modelling to avoid biased regions-of-interest, kinetic modelling and heuristic analyses. Repeatability was also evaluated. RESULTS: At early study termination, DCE-MRI data had been acquired from 58 patients in 19 imaging centres. K trans intra-subject coefficient of variation (N = 14) was 30%. K trans change demonstrated inferiority of fostamatinib (N = 11) relative to adalimumab (N = 10) after 6 weeks (treatment ratio = 1.92, p = 0.003), and failed to distinguish fostamatinib from placebo (N = 10, p = 0.79). RAMRIS showed superiority of fostamatinib relative to placebo at 6 weeks (p = 0.023), and did not distinguish fostamatinib from adalimumab at either 6 (p = 0.175) or 24 (p = 0.230) weeks. CONCLUSION: This demonstrated repeatability of K trans and its ability to distinguish treatment groups show that DCE-MRI biomarkers are suitable for use in multicentre RA trials. KEY POINTS: • DCE-MRI biomarkers are feasible in large multicentre studies of joint inflammation. • DCE-MRI K trans showed fostamatinib inferior to adalimumab after 6 weeks. • K trans repeatability coefficient of variation was 30% multicentre.

Osteoarthritic bone marrow lesions almost exclusively colocate with denuded cartilage: a 3D study using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: The aetiology of bone marrow lesions (BMLs) in knee osteoarthritis (OA) is poorly understood. We employed three-dimensional (3D) active appearance modelling (AAM) to study the spatial distribution of BMLs in an OA cohort and compare this with the distribution of denuded cartilage. METHODS: Participants were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative progressor cohort with Kellgren-Lawrence scores ≥2, medial joint space narrowing and osteophytes. OA and ligamentous BMLs and articular cartilage were manually segmented. Bone surfaces were automatically segmented by AAM. Cartilage thickness of <0.5 mm was defined as denuded and ≥0.5-1.5 mm as severely damaged. Non-quantitative assessment and 3D population maps were used for analysing the comparative position of BMLs and damaged cartilage. RESULTS: 88 participants were included, 45 men, mean age (SD) was 61.3 (9.9) years and mean body mass index was 31.1 (4.6) kg/m(2). 227 OA and 107 ligamentous BMLs were identified in 86.4% and 73.8% of participants; OA BMLs were larger. Denuded cartilage was predominantly confined to a central region on the medial femur and tibia, and the lateral facet of the trochlear femur. 67% of BMLs were colocated with denuded cartilage and a further 21% with severe cartilage damage. In the remaining 12%, 25/28 were associated with cartilage defects. 74% of all BMLs were directly opposing (kissing) another BML across the joint. CONCLUSIONS: There was an almost exclusive relationship between the location of OA BML and cartilage denudation, which itself had a clear spatial pattern. We propose that OA, ligamentous and traumatic BMLs represent a bone response to abnormal loading.

Comparing the effects of tofacitinib, methotrexate and the combination, on bone marrow oedema, synovitis and bone erosion in methotrexate-naive, early active rheumatoid arthritis: results of an exploratory randomised MRI study incorporating semiquantitative and quantitative techniques.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the effects of tofacitinib-an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-with or without methotrexate (MTX), on MRI endpoints in MTX-naive adult patients with early active RA and synovitis in an index wrist or hand. METHODS: In this exploratory, phase 2, randomised, double-blind, parallel-group study, patients received tofacitinib 10 mg twice daily + MTX, tofacitinib 10 mg twice daily + placebo (tofacitinib monotherapy), or MTX + placebo (MTX monotherapy), for 1 year. MRI endpoints (Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials RA MRI score (RAMRIS), quantitative RAMRIS (RAMRIQ) and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI) were assessed using a mixed-effect model for repeated measures. Treatment differences with p<0.05 (vs MTX monotherapy) were considered significant. RESULTS: In total, 109 patients were randomised and treated. Treatment differences in RAMRIS bone marrow oedema (BME) at month 6 were -1.55 (90% CI -2.52 to -0.58) for tofacitinib + MTX and -1.74 (-2.72 to -0.76) for tofacitinib monotherapy (both p<0.01 vs MTX monotherapy). Numerical improvements in RAMRIS synovitis at month 3 were -0.63 (-1.58 to 0.31) for tofacitinib + MTX and -0.52 (-1.46 to 0.41) for tofacitinib monotherapy (both p>0.05 vs MTX monotherapy). Treatment differences in RAMRIQ synovitis were statistically significant at month 3, consistent with DCE MRI findings. Less deterioration of RAMRIS and RAMRIQ erosive damage was seen at months 6 and 12 in both tofacitinib groups versus MTX monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide consistent evidence using three different MRI technologies that tofacitinib treatment leads to early reduction of inflammation and inhibits progression of structural damage. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01164579.

Sensors in the Stream: The High-Frequency Wave of the Present.

New scientific understanding is catalyzed by novel technologies that enhance measurement precision, resolution or type, and that provide new tools to test and develop theory. Over the last 50 years, technology has transformed the hydrologic sciences by enabling direct measurements of watershed fluxes (evapotranspiration, streamflow) at time scales and spatial extents aligned with variation in physical drivers. High frequency water quality measurements, increasingly obtained by in situ water quality sensors, are extending that transformation. Widely available sensors for some physical (temperature) and chemical (conductivity, dissolved oxygen) attributes have become integral to aquatic science, and emerging sensors for nutrients, dissolved CO2, turbidity, algal pigments, and dissolved organic matter are now enabling observations of watersheds and streams at time scales commensurate with their fundamental hydrological, energetic, elemental, and biological drivers. Here we synthesize insights from emerging technologies across a suite of applications, and envision future advances, enabled by sensors, in our ability to understand, predict, and restore watershed and stream systems.

A novel method for bone area measurement provides new insights into osteoarthritis and its progression.

BACKGROUND: Modern image analysis enables the accurate quantification of knee osteoarthritis (OA) bone using MRI. We hypothesised that three-dimensional changes in bone would be characteristic of OA and provide a responsive measure of progression. METHODS: 1312 participants with radiographic knee OA, and 885 non-OA controls with MRIs at baseline, 1, 2 and 4 years were selected from the NIH Osteoarthritis Initiative. Automated segmentation of all knee bones and calculation of bone area was performed using active appearance models. In a subset of 352 participants, responsiveness of bone area change was compared with change in radiographic joint space width (JSW) and MRI cartilage thickness over a 2-year period. RESULTS: All OA knee compartments showed increased bone area over time compared with non-OA participants: for example, the 4-year percentage change from baseline in medial femur area for OA (95% CI) was 1.87(0.13), non-OA 0.43 (0.07); p<0.0001. Bone area change was more responsive than cartilage thickness or JSW; 2-year SRM for bone area in the medial femur was 0.83, for the most responsive cartilage thickness measure central medial femorotibial composite (cMFTC): 0.38, JSW: 0.35. Almost half of all knees had change greater than smallest detectable difference at 2 years. Body mass index, gender and alignment had only a small effect on the rate of change of bone area. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in bone area discriminated people with OA from controls and was more responsive than the current and impending standards for assessing OA progression. The shape change in OA bone provides a new window on OA pathogenesis and a focus for clinical trials.

Effect of bisphosphonate use in patients with symptomatic and radiographic knee osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: Bisphosphonates have some reported beneficial effects in treating osteoarthritis (OA). This study examined the effects of bisphosphonate use on symptoms and structural progression of knee OA in participants from the NIH Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. METHODS: People with typical OA trial entry criteria (KL2/3, minimum joint space width 2.5-5.0 mm and pain ≥4 on a numeric rating scale) were classified as bisphosphonate users (≥3 of the 5 years; n=55) or non-users (no use in the preceding 5 years or during follow-up; n=268). Annual data over 4 years were analysed using linear mixed modelling and generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: Bisphosphonate compliance was 85% at year 1, reducing to 76% by year 4. Numeric rating scale pain scores were significantly reduced among bisphosphonate users at years 2 and 3 (year 3, -0.9 vs -2.2, p=0.004), though not year 4, after adjustment for baseline pain and analgesic use. Differences in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain and disability scores did not reach statistical significance at any time point. There was a trend to less joint space narrowing in bisphosphonate users over time (year 4, 0.51 vs 0.29 mm; p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Significant reduction in numeric rating scale pain was observed in the first 3 years with bisphosphonate use; diminution of effects by year 4 may reflect reduced compliance. Differences in results obtained using numeric rating scale and WOMAC may reflect different constructs measured by these tools. The beneficial trend on structural progression should be considered in terms of the sample size.

Magnetic resonance imaging-based three-dimensional bone shape of the knee predicts onset of knee osteoarthritis: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based 3-dimensional (3-D) bone shape predicts the onset of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative by identifying knees that developed incident tibiofemoral radiographic knee OA (case knees) during followup, and matching them each to 2 random control knees. Using knee MRIs, we performed active appearance modeling of the femur, tibia, and patella and linear discriminant analysis to identify vectors that best classified knees with OA versus those without OA. Vectors were scaled such that -1 and +1 represented the mean non-OA and mean OA shapes, respectively. We examined the relation of 3-D bone shape to incident OA (new-onset Kellgren and Lawrence [K/L] grade ≥2) occurring 12 months later using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 178 case knees (incident OA) were matched to 353 control knees. The whole joint (i.e., tibia, femur, and patella) 3-D bone shape vector had the strongest magnitude of effect, with knees in the highest tertile having a 3.0 times higher likelihood of developing incident radiographic knee OA 12 months later compared with those in the lowest tertile (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.8-5.0, P < 0.0001). The associations were even stronger among knees that had completely normal radiographs before incidence (K/L grade of 0) (odds ratio 12.5 [95% CI 4.0-39.3]). Bone shape at baseline, often several years before incidence, predicted later OA. CONCLUSION: MRI-based 3-D bone shape predicted the later onset of radiographic OA. Further study is warranted to determine whether such methods can detect treatment effects in trials and provide insight into the pathophysiology of OA development.

Interpretation of river water quality data is strongly controlled by measurement time and frequency.

Water quality monitoring at high temporal frequency provides a detailed picture of environmental stressors and ecosystem response, which is essential to protect and restore lake and river health. An effective monitoring network requires knowledge on optimal monitoring frequency and data variability. Here, high-frequency hydrochemical datasets (dissolved oxygen, pH, electrical conductivity, turbidity, water temperature, total reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus and nitrate) from six UK catchments were analysed to 1) understand the lowest measurement frequency needed to fully capture the variation in the datasets; and 2) investigate bias caused by sampling at different times of the day. The study found that reducing the measurement frequency increasingly changed the interpretation of the data by altering the calculated median and data range. From 45 individual parameter-catchment combinations (six to eight parameters in six catchments), four-hourly data captured most of the hourly range (>90 %) for 37 combinations, whilst 41 had limited impact on the median (<0.5 % change). Twelve-hourly and daily data captured >90 % of the range with limited impact on the median in approximately half of the combinations, whereas weekly and monthly data captured this in <6 combinations. Generally, reducing sampling frequency had most impact on the median for parameters showing strong diurnal cycles, whilst parameters showing rapid responses to extreme flow conditions had most impact on the range. Diurnal cycles resulted in year-round intra-daily variation in most of the parameters, apart from nutrient concentrations, where daily variation depended on both seasonal flow patterns and anthropogenic influences. To design an optimised monitoring programme, key catchment characteristics and required data resolution for the monitoring purpose should be considered. Ideally a pilot study with high-frequency monitoring, at least four-hourly, should be used to determine the minimum frequency regime needed to capture temporal behaviours in the intended focus water quality parameters by revealing their biogeochemical response patterns.