Coronavirus Disease 2019 Planning and Response: A Tale of 2 Health Workforce Estimator Tools.

BACKGROUND: As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly progressed throughout the United States, increased demand for health workers required health workforce data and tools to aid planning and response at local, state, and national levels. OBJECTIVE: We describe the development of 2 estimator tools designed to inform health workforce planning for COVID-19. RESEARCH DESIGN: We estimated supply and demand for intensivists, critical care nurses, hospitalists, respiratory therapists, and pharmacists, using Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections for COVID-19 hospital care and National Plan and Provider Enumeration System, Provider Enrollment Chain and Ownership System, American Hospital Association, and Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment Statistics for workforce supply. We estimated contact tracing workforce needs using Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 case counts and workload parameters based on expert advice. RESULTS: The State Hospital Workforce Deficit Estimator estimated the sufficiency of state hospital-based clinicians to meet projected COVID-19 demand. The Contact Tracing Workforce Estimator calculated the workforce needed based on the 14-day COVID-19 caseload at county, state, and the national level, allowing users to adjust workload parameters to reflect local contexts. CONCLUSIONS: The 2 estimators illustrate the value of integrating health workforce data and analysis with pandemic response planning. The many unknowns associated with COVID-19 required tools to be flexible, allowing users to change assumptions on number of contacts and work capacity. Data limitations were a challenge for both estimators, highlighting the need to invest in health workforce data and data infrastructure as part of future emergency preparedness planning.

The Effects of SNAP Work Requirements in Reducing Participation and Benefits From 2013 to 2017.

Objectives. To assess the effects of work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).Methods. We used changes in waivers of work requirements to assess the impact of requiring work on the number of SNAP participants and benefit levels in 2410 US counties from 2013 to 2017 using 2-way fixed effects models.Results. Adoption of work requirements was followed by reductions of 3.0% in total SNAP participation, 4.5% in SNAP households, and 3.8% in SNAP benefit dollars, after controlling for the unemployment, poverty, and Medicaid expansions. Because able-bodied adults without dependents comprise 8% to 9% of all SNAP participants, our findings indicate that work requirements caused more than one third of able-bodied adults without dependents to lose benefits.Conclusions. Expansions of work requirements caused about 600 000 participants to lose SNAP benefits from 2013 to 2017 and caused a reduction of about $2.5 billion in federal SNAP benefits in 2017. The losses occurred rapidly, beginning a few months after work requirements were imposed.Public Health Implications. SNAP work requirements rapidly reduce caseloads and benefits, reducing food and health access. Effects on participation could be similar for work requirements in Medicaid or other programs.

Policies Affecting Medicaid Beneficiaries' Smoking Cessation Behaviors.

Introduction: Smoking rates for Medicaid beneficiaries have remained flat in recent years. Medicaid may support smokers in quitting by covering a broad array of tobacco cessation services without barriers such as copays. This study examines the impact of increasing generosity in Medicaid tobacco cessation coverage policies on smoking and cessation behaviors. Methods: We used 2010 and 2015 National Health Interview Survey data merged with information on state tobacco, Medicaid cessation, and Medicaid eligibility policies to estimate state fixed effects models of cessation medication use, counseling use, quit attempts, and current smoking. Results: Smokers living in states that cover cessation medications but not counseling services were less likely to use counseling. Smokers were more likely to report having tried to quit in states with higher rates of use of cessation medications among Medicaid beneficiaries. We found no impact of Medicaid policies on use of cessation medications. States that impose copays had higher rates of smoking, while those that require counseling as a condition of receiving medication had lower rates of smoking. Additionally, we found that expanding Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among Medicaid beneficiaries. Conclusion: Covering cessation counseling may encourage smokers that want to quit to use this service. Promoting the use of cessation medications may improve the likelihood that smokers try to quit. Medicaid coverage of cessation services is an important but incomplete strategy in addressing smoking among low-income populations. Implications: States may be able to improve utilization of cessation counseling by providing Medicaid reimbursement for this service. Encouraging utilization of tobacco cessation medications may help more smokers quit. States should consider how to promote effective cessation methods among clinicians and patients.

Medicaid Work Requirements: Will They Help the Unemployed Gain Jobs or Improve Health?

Issue: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services approved Medicaid work requirement demonstration projects in four states, and other states also have applied. However, the future of these projects has been clouded by legal and policy challenges. Goal: To assess whether state Medicaid work requirement projects are designed for success in promoting employment among unemployed Medicaid beneficiaries. Methods: To examine the design of new work requirement projects, we reviewed the evidence, analyzed the overlap of Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) work requirements, and convened a roundtable of seven experts who have research or implementation experience with work programs for Medicaid and public assistance recipients. Findings and Conclusion: Mandatory work programs would be less effective and efficient than well-administered voluntary programs. Far more people will be subject to Medicaid work requirements than are currently subject to them in SNAP. This surge could overwhelm the limited resources of existing employment training and support programs. Medicaid demonstration projects contribute almost no additional funding to train the unemployed or provide necessary social supports. Medicaid work requirement programs are not well designed to help people get jobs or improve health and are more likely to lead to a loss of health insurance coverage.

Repealing Federal Health Reform: Economic and Employment Consequences for States.

Issue: The incoming Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are seeking to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), likely beginning with the law's insurance premium tax credits and expansion of Medicaid eligibility. Research shows that the loss of these two provisions would lead to a doubling of the number of uninsured, higher uncompensated care costs for providers, and higher taxes for low-income Americans. Goal: To determine the state-by-state effect of repeal on employment and economic activity. Methods: A multistate economic forecasting model (PI+ from Regional Economic Models, Inc.) was used to quantify for each state the effects of the federal spending cuts. Findings and Conclusions: Repeal results in a $140 billion loss in federal funding for health care in 2019, leading to the loss of 2.6 million jobs (mostly in the private sector) that year across all states. A third of lost jobs are in health care, with the majority in other industries. If replacement policies are not in place, there will be a cumulative $1.5 trillion loss in gross state products and a $2.6 trillion reduction in business output from 2019 to 2023. States and health care providers will be particularly hard hit by the funding cuts.

The American Health Care Act: economic and employment consequences for states.

ISSUE: The American Health Care Act (AHCA), passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. The Congressional Budget Office indicates that the AHCA could increase the number of uninsured by 23 million by 2026. GOAL: To determine the consequences of the AHCA on employment and economic activity in every state. METHODS: We compute changes in federal spending and revenue from 2018 to 2026 for each state and use the PI+ model to project the effects on states' employment and economies. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: The AHCA would raise employment and economic activity at first, but lower them in the long run. It initially raises the federal deficit when taxes are repealed, leading to 864,000 more jobs in 2018. In later years, reductions in support for health insurance cause negative economic effects. By 2026, 924,000 jobs would be lost, gross state products would be $93 billion lower, and business output would be $148 billion less. About three-quarters of jobs lost (725,000) would be in the health care sector. States which expanded Medicaid would experience faster and deeper economic losses.

How Medicaid and Other Public Policies Affect Use of Tobacco Cessation Therapy, United States, 2010-2014.

INTRODUCTION: State Medicaid programs can cover tobacco cessation therapies for millions of low-income smokers in the United States, but use of this benefit is low and varies widely by state. This article assesses the effects of changes in Medicaid benefit policies, general tobacco policies, smoking norms, and public health programs on the use of cessation therapy among Medicaid smokers. METHODS: We used longitudinal panel analysis, using 2-way fixed effects models, to examine the effects of changes in state policies and characteristics on state-level use of Medicaid tobacco cessation medications from 2010 through 2014. RESULTS: Medicaid policies that require patients to obtain counseling to get medications reduced the use of cessation medications by approximately one-quarter to one-third; states that cover all types of cessation medications increased usage by approximately one-quarter to one-third. Non-Medicaid policies did not have significant effects on use levels. CONCLUSIONS: States could increase efforts to quit by developing more comprehensive coverage and reducing barriers to coverage. Reductions in barriers could bolster smoking cessation rates, and the costs would be small compared with the costs of treating smoking-related diseases. Innovative initiatives to help smokers quit could improve health and reduce health care costs.

Black and Hispanic Representation Declined After Increased Degree Requirements for Physician Assistants.

INTRODUCTION: The physician assistant (PA) profession is one of the least racially and ethnically diverse health professions requiring advanced education. New PA graduates are even less diverse than the current PA workforce and less diverse than professions requiring doctoral degrees. Between 1995 and 2020, the percent of all PA graduates that were Black individuals fell from 7% to 3.1%, while Hispanic representation increased from 4.5% to 7.9%. METHODS: Using the federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, we examine the impact of transitions to master's degrees for PAs on Black and Hispanic representation between 1995 and 2020, using individual universities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS: After adjusting for state and year effects, PA programs that transitioned from bachelor's to master's degrees experienced a 5.3% point decline in Black representation and a 3.8% point decline in Hispanic representation. Relative to the already low proportions of Black and Hispanic graduates in PA programs, these declines are significant. DISCUSSION: Steps should be taken to ensure that underrepresented populations have greater access to PA education.

The Effect Of Next Generation Accountable Care Organizations On Medicare Expenditures.

The Next Generation Accountable Care Organization (NGACO) model (active during 2016-21) tested the effects of high financial risk, payment mechanisms, and flexible care delivery on health care spending and value for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries. We used quasi-experimental methods to examine the model's effects on Medicare Parts A and B spending. Sixty-two ACOs with more than 4.2 million beneficiaries and more than 91,000 practitioners participated in the model. The model was associated with a $270 per beneficiary per year, or approximately $1.7 billion, decline in Medicare spending. After shared savings payments to ACOs were included, the model increased net Medicare spending by $56 per beneficiary per year, or $96.7 million. Annual declines in spending for the model grew over time, reflecting exit by poorer-performing NGACOs, improvement among the remaining NGACOs, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Larger declines in spending occurred among physician practice ACOs and ACOs that elected population-based payments and risk caps greater than 5 percent.

Documenting Latino Representation In The US Health Workforce.

We compared the representation of the four largest Latino subpopulation groups in the health workforce with that group's representation in the US workforce, using 2016-20 data. Mexican Americans were the most underrepresented subpopulation in professions requiring advanced degrees. All groups were overrepresented in occupations requiring less than a bachelor's degree. Among recent health professions graduates, overall Latino representation has been increasing over time.

Continuous Eligibility for Medicaid Associated With Improved Child Health Outcomes.

Fluctuating insurance coverage, or churning, is a recognized barrier to health care access. We assessed whether state policies that allow children to remain covered in Medicaid for a 12-month period, regardless of fluctuations in income, are associated with health and health care outcomes, after controlling for individual factors and other Medicaid policies. This cross-sectional study uses a large, nationally representative database of children ages 0 to 17. Continuous eligibility was associated with improved rates of insurance, reductions in gaps in insurance and gaps due to application problems, and lower probability of being in fair or poor health. For children with special health care needs, it was associated with increases in use of medical care and preventive and specialty care access. However, continuous eligibility was not associated with health care utilization outcomes for the full sample. Continuous eligibility may be an effective strategy to reduce gaps in coverage for children and reduce paperwork burden on Medicaid agencies.

Associations of Expanding Parental Medicaid Eligibility and Parental Health and Family Functioning.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of parental Medicaid eligibility on parental health, parenting practices, and child development in low-income families. METHODS: Longitudinal analysis using data from the Early Child Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten: 2011 to 2016. Outcomes included parental self-rated health, parental depressive symptoms, parents' communication and warmth toward children, and children's social skills and externalizing and internalizing behaviors. We estimated 2-way (individual and year) fixed effects models using Medicaid eligibility as a continuous variable, controlling for changing economic conditions, changes in family structure, and state-specific trends. We then estimated triple difference models comparing lower income families to those with higher incomes. Finally, we estimated difference-in-difference models and used entropy weights in order to account for differences in trends prior to 2014 for some outcomes. RESULTS: In fixed effects models, expanding Medicaid eligibility by 100% of the federal poverty line is associated with a 12.7 percentage point reduction in parents' report of having fair or poor health (95% confidence interval [CI], -23.9, -1.5) and a 1.15-point improvement on a 12-point scale of parental warmth towards children (95% CI, 0.15, 2.16). Results were substantively similar in entropy-balanced difference-in-differences models. In triple difference models, expanded Medicaid eligibility is associated with a 0.46 point improvement in warmth (95% CI, 0.10, 0.83) but not improved parental health. No significant effects for child behavior or other outcomes were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding Medicaid for parents may have implications for intergenerational family functioning that could lead to broader social benefits.

Limited, uneven progress in increasing racial and ethnic diversity of dental school graduates.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES: To assess racial and ethnic diversity of graduates of each dental school compared to the diversity of populations they draw from and to assess changes over time nationally and by school. METHODS: We calculated diversity of graduates by school and nationally between 2010-2012 and 2017-2019 using the Integrated Post-secondary Education Data System (IPEDS) and compared the diversity of each state's college age population using data from the American Community Survey. We accounted for differences between in-state and out-of-state students attending public and private schools based on data from the American Dental Association's Survey of Dental Education Series. A diversity index (DI) was calculated for each school. A DI of 0.5 means that the representation of Black or Hispanic individuals among the graduates is half of their representation in the benchmark population. RESULTS: Among the 63 dental schools analyzed, only seven had a DI of greater than 0.5 for Black graduates (two of which were Historically Black Colleges and Universities) in 2017-2019. For Hispanic graduates, 20 schools had a DI above 0.5. Nationally, while the number of Black graduates increased between 2010-2012 and 2017-2019, the percentage decreased from 5.8% to 5.1%. The percentage of Hispanic graduates increased from 6.4% to 8.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Black and Hispanic individuals are underrepresented among dental school graduates. Increasing the diversity of the dental workforce could help address significant oral health disparities experienced by Black and Hispanic people. More needs to be done by the dental education community to increase racial and ethnic diversity of dental graduates.

Association of Work Requirements With Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation by Race/Ethnicity and Disability Status, 2013-2017.

Importance: Increased work requirements have been proposed throughout federal safety net programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Participation in SNAP is associated with reduced food insecurity and improved health. Objectives: To determine whether SNAP work requirements are associated with lower rates of program participation and to examine whether there are racial/ethnic disparities or spillover effects for people with disabilities, who are not intended to be affected by work requirements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationally representative, pooled cross-sectional study examined how changes in SNAP work requirements at state and local levels in the US are associated with changes in food voucher program participation. The study combined information on state and local SNAP work requirements with repeated cross-sections from the 2012 through 2017 American Community Survey (with outcomes covering 2013 to 2017). The analytical approaches were based on difference-in-difference and triple-difference methods, after controlling for other economic and social factors. The sample included low-income adults without dependents, stratified by racial/ethnic group and disability status. The study also included parents who would otherwise meet work requirement criteria as a comparison group to estimate triple-difference models. This accounted for otherwise unobserved factors affecting trends in SNAP participation within local areas. Data were analyzed from January 2019 through March 2020. Exposure: Residence in areas where SNAP work requirements apply. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome is SNAP participation measured by whether anyone in the household received food vouchers at any point over the prior 12 months. Results: The final analytical sample included 866 000 low-income adults (weighted mean [SE] age, 33.6 [0.01] years; 42.5% [SE, 0.07%] men). The racial/ethnic breakdown was 56.5% (SE, 0.07%) non-Hispanic white respondents, 19.4% (SE, 0.06%) non-Hispanic black respondents, 17.7% (SE, 0.06%) Hispanic respondents, 2.5% (SE, 0.02%) Asian respondents, and 3.9% (SE, 0.03%) respondents of other or multiple races. In final triple-difference models, work requirements were associated with a 4.0 percentage point decrease in participation (95% CI, -0.048 to -0.032; P < .001) for childless adults without disability, equivalent to a 21.2% reduction in SNAP participation (95% CI, -25.5% to -17.0%). For childless adults with disability, work requirements were associated with a 4.0 percentage point reduction (95% CI, -0.058 to -0.023; P < .001), equivalent to 7.8% fewer SNAP participants with disability (95% CI, -11.2% to -4.4%). When the final models were stratified by race/ethnicity, benefit reductions were larger for non-Hispanic black adults (7.2 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.092 to -0.051; P < .001) and Hispanic adults (5.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.072 to -0.038; P < .001) than for non-Hispanic white adults (2.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.035 to -0.016; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Because of the association of SNAP with food security and health, work requirements that lead to benefit loss may create nutritional and health harm for low-income Americans. These findings suggest that there may be racially disparate consequences and unintended harm for those with disability.

Physicians' Recommendations to Medicaid Patients About Tobacco Cessation.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is highly prevalent among low-income Medicaid beneficiaries and tobacco-cessation benefits are generally available. Nonetheless, use of cessation medications or counseling remains low, and many clinicians are hesitant to urge smokers to quit. This study examines the extent to which physicians provide advice to Medicaid patients about quitting. METHODS: Data from the 2014-2015 Nationwide Adult Medicaid Consumer Assessment of Health Plans survey were merged with state Medicaid policy variables and analyzed in 2017-2018. Multivariate regression models examined factors associated with smoking status, physician advice to quit smoking, and discussion of cessation medications or other strategies, as well as patients' ratings of their personal physicians. RESULTS: Almost one third (29%) of adult Medicaid beneficiaries smoke. Almost four fifths of smokers with a personal doctor (77%) say their doctor at least sometimes advised quitting and almost half of smokers discussed cessation medications (48%), or another strategy, such as counseling (42%). Smokers' ratings of satisfaction with their physicians and their health plans rose as the frequency of smoking recommendations increased. Those in Medicaid managed care plans smoked more, but received less advice about cessation medications than those in fee-for-service care. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians and Medicaid managed care plans can improve their efforts to motivate Medicaid patients to try to quit smoking. These findings indicate that patients value prevention-oriented advice and give better ratings to physicians and health plans that offer more support and advice about cessation.

Collaboration Across the Safety Net in the Era of Health Reform: Opportunities or Obstacles?

While implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act brings significant opportunities for safety net providers (SNP), local systems vary in how well they adapt to the rapidly evolving environment. Collaboration may enhance SNP capacity to leverage opportunities in the health reform era. Our study examines key opportunities and challenges SNPs face under health reform and how providers use collaboration as a strategy to adapt to the new environment. A qualitative study of 78 executives at safety net organizations identified six priorities that pose both opportunities and challenges for SNP, and around which collaboration is used as a strategy to achieve common goals: Medicaid expansion, outreach and enrollment, capacity and access, health system transformation, health insurance exchanges, and reductions in government funding. Three types of collaborations emerged: policy and advocacy, community action, and practice-based. Types of collaborations and stakeholders involved appeared to vary by priority.

Malpractice Liability Risk and Use of Diagnostic Imaging Services: A Systematic Review of the Literature.

PURPOSE: A widespread concern among physicians is that fear of medical malpractice liability may affect their decisions for diagnostic imaging orders. The purpose of this article is to synthesize evidence regarding the defensive use of imaging services. METHODS: A literature search was conducted using a number of databases. The review included peer-reviewed publications that studied the link between physician orders of imaging tests and malpractice liability pressure. RESULTS: We identified 13 peer-reviewed studies conducted in the United States. Five of the studies reported physician assessments of the role of defensive medicine in imaging-order decisions; five assessed the association between physicians' liability risk and imaging ordering, and three assessed the impact of liability risk on imaging ordering at the state level. Although the belief that medical liability risk could influence decisions is highly prevalent among physicians, findings are mixed regarding the impact of liability risk on imaging orders at both the state and physician level. CONCLUSIONS: Inconclusive evidence suggests that physician ordering of imaging tests is affected by malpractice liability risk. Further research is needed to disentangle defensive medicine from other reasons for inefficient use of imaging.