Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 and Respiratory Virus Sentinel Surveillance, California, USA, May 10, 2020-June 12, 2021.

State and local health departments established the California Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Respiratory Virus Sentinel Surveillance System to conduct enhanced surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens at sentinel outpatient testing sites in 10 counties throughout California, USA. We describe results obtained during May 10, 2020‒June 12, 2021, and compare persons with positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR results by using Poisson regression. We detected SARS-CoV-2 in 1,696 (19.6%) of 8,662 specimens. Among 7,851 specimens tested by respiratory panel, rhinovirus/enterovirus was detected in 906 (11.5%) specimens and other respiratory pathogens in 136 (1.7%) specimens. We also detected 23 co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 and another pathogen. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was associated with male participants, an age of 35-49 years, Latino race/ethnicity, obesity, and work in transportation occupations. Sentinel surveillance can provide useful virologic and epidemiologic data to supplement other disease monitoring activities and might become increasingly useful as routine testing decreases.

Predictive factors of facilitating linkage to care for HIV-positive detainees in ICE Health Service Corps-staffed facilities.

BACKGROUND: Persons in ICE detention represent a population about whom limited health-related data is available in the literature. Since ICE detention is generally brief, facilitating linkage to care (FLC) for detainees with chronic diseases, including HIV-positive detainees, is challenging, yet critical to encourage continued treatment beyond custody. Between 2015 and 2017, IHSC-staffed facilities implemented intensive training related to HIV care and FLC and increased clinical oversight and consultations. This study examined the impact of these changes in relation to FLC. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data for detainees with known HIV-positive diagnoses at IHSC-staffed facilities entering custody in 2015 and 2017 were obtained via electronic health record. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regressions were performed to identify factors that may increase FLC. RESULTS: After adjusting for year of entry into custody, detainees who received an infectious disease (ID) consultation had significantly higher odds (2.4, P < 0.001) of receiving FLC resources compared to those who did not receive an ID consultation. Between 2015 and 2017, the proportion of HIV-positive detainees receiving FLC resources increased from 29 to 62%. CONCLUSIONS: ID consultations significantly improved FLC for HIV-positive detainees. Continued provider training and education is essential to continue improving the rate of FLC for HIV-positive ICE detainees.

Prevalence and correlates of diabetes and metabolic syndrome in a rural indigenous community in Baja California, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico and understudied among indigenous populations. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and identify correlates of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (Type 2 DM) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a rural, indigenous community in Northwestern Mexico. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in the community of San Quintin, Baja California, Mexico, among a sample of households. A total of 275 participants (≥18 years old) underwent a questionnaire, physical examination, and serologic test. Prevalence and adjusted odds ratio (AOR), using logistic regression modeling, were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: The prevalence of Type 2 DM and MetS was 21.8 and 53.1%, respectively. Mean ± standard deviation (SD) age and body mass index of study participants was 35.8 ± 13.0 years and 28.7 ± 5.6 kg/m2, respectively. Participants were 75% female and 60.7% self-identified as indigenous. Thirty-seven percent of adults had high blood pressure. After controlling for age, higher educational attainment had a protective effect on Type 2 DM (AOR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.20, 0.77). Additionally, the presence of MetS was associated with being female (AOR = 2.27; 95% CI 1.23, 4.14) and having lower educational attainment (AOR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.37, 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of Type 2 DM and MetS was high in this rural and indigenous population, and education was shown to play a critical role. These findings support the need for community-inclusive health-promoting interventions in rural communities.

Application of the MASCC and CISNE Risk-Stratification Scores to Identify Low-Risk Febrile Neutropenic Patients in the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Although validated risk-stratification tools have been used to send low-risk febrile neutropenic patients home from clinic and inpatient settings, there is a dearth of research evaluating these scores in the emergency department (ED). We compare the predictive accuracy of the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) and Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE) scores for patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia and presenting to the ED. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate all patients with febrile neutropenia (temperature ≥38°C [100.4°F], absolute neutrophil count <1,000 cells/µL) who presented to 2 academic EDs from June 2012 through January 2015. MASCC and CISNE scores were calculated for all subjects, and each visit was evaluated for several outcome variables, including inpatient length of stay, upgrade in level of care, clinical deterioration, positive blood culture results, and death. Descriptive statistics are reported and continuous variables were analyzed with Wilcoxon rank sum. RESULTS: During our study period, 230 patients presented with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. The CISNE score identified 53 (23%) of these patients as low risk and was highly specific in the identification of a low-risk cohort for all outcome variables (98.3% specific, 95% confidence interval [CI] 89.7% to 99.9%; positive predictive value 98.1%, 95% CI 88.6% to 99.9%). Median length of stay was shorter for low-risk versus high-risk CISNE patients (3-day difference; P<.001). The MASCC score was much less specific (54.2%; 95% CI 40.8% to 67.1%) in the identification of a low-risk cohort. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the CISNE score may be the most appropriate febrile neutropenia risk-stratification tool for use in the ED.

Decreased Anemia Prevalence Among Women and Children in Rural Baja California, Mexico: A 6-Year Comparative Study.

Anemia is a public health problem in Mexico. This study sought to determine the prevalence and correlates of anemia among women and children residing in a rural farming region of Baja California, Mexico. An existing partnership between universities, non-governmental organizations, and an underserved Mexican community was utilized to perform cross-sectional data collection in 2004-2005 (Wave 1) and in 2011-2012 (Wave 2) among women (15-49 years) and their children (6-59 months). All participants completed a survey and underwent anemia testing. Blood smears were obtained to identify etiology. Nutrition education interventions and clinical health evaluations were offered between waves. Participants included 201 women and 99 children in Wave 1, and 146 women and 77 children in Wave 2. Prevalence of anemia significantly decreased from 42.3 to 23.3 % between Waves 1 and 2 in women (p < 0.001), from 46.5 to 30.2 % in children 24-59 months (p = 0.066), and from 71.4 to 45.8 % in children 6-23 months (p = 0.061). Among women in Wave 1, consumption of iron absorption enhancing foods (green vegetables and fruits high in vitamin C) was protective against anemia (p = 0.043). Women in Wave 2 who ate ≥4 servings of green, leafy vegetables per week were less likely to be anemic (p = 0.034). Microscopic examination of blood smears revealed microcytic, hypochromic red blood cells in 90 % of anemic children and 68.8 % of anemic women, consistent with iron deficiency anemia.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Awareness and Acceptability Among U.S.-Born and U.S. Foreign-Born Women Living in California.

We examined human papillomavirus vaccine awareness and acceptance between U.S.-born and U.S. foreign-born women by utilizing California Health Interview Survey data from 1,672 women (ages 18-27) and 2,994 mothers (ages 28-65). Foreign-born women and mothers had lower vaccine awareness. Foreign-born young adult Latinas had greater vaccine acceptance than U.S.-born Latinas. Other factors associated with young adult women's vaccine acceptability were being younger, unmarried, and sexually active in the past year; having poorer self-reported health; and having heard of the vaccine. Variables associated with mothers' vaccine acceptability were being White, insured, and unmarried; having had a Pap test in past 3 years; being less educated; and being impoverished.

Effect of Depression on Risky Drinking and Response to a Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment Intervention.

We assessed alcohol consumption and depression in 234 American Indian/Alaska Native women (aged 18-45 years) in Southern California. Women were randomized to intervention or assessment alone and followed for 6 months (2011-2013). Depression was associated with risk factors for alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). Both treatment groups reduced drinking (P < .001). Depressed, but not nondepressed, women reduced drinking in response to SBIRT above the reduction in response to assessment alone. Screening for depression may assist in allocating women to specific AEP prevention interventions.

Preventing alcohol-exposed pregnancy among an American Indian/Alaska Native population: effect of a screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment intervention.

BACKGROUND: Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders are the result of alcohol-exposed pregnancies (AEP) and believed to be the leading known cause of developmental disabilities in the United States. Our objective was to determine whether a culturally targeted Screening, Brief Intervention, and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT) intervention may reduce risky drinking and vulnerability to AEP among American Indian/Alaska Native (AIAN) women in Southern California. METHODS: Southern California AIAN women of childbearing age who completed a survey including questions regarding alcohol consumption and contraceptive use were randomized into intervention or treatment as usual groups where the former group completed an online SBIRT intervention, and were followed up at 1, 3, and 6 months postintervention. RESULTS: Of 263 women recruited and 247 with follow-up data, one-third were at high risk of having an AEP at baseline. Both treatment groups decreased self-reported risky drinking behavior (drinks per week, p < 0.001; frequency of heavy episodic [binge] drinking episodes per 2 weeks, p = 0.017 and risk of AEP p < 0.001 at 6 months postintervention) in the follow-up period. There was no difference between treatment groups. Baseline factors associated with decreased risk of an AEP at follow-up included the perception that other women in their peer group consumed a greater number of drinks per week, having reported a greater number of binge episodes in the past 2 weeks, and depression/impaired functionality. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in assessment alone may have been sufficient to encourage behavioral change even without the web-based SBIRT intervention. Randomization to the SBIRT did not result in a significantly different change in risky drinking behaviors. The importance of perception of other women's drinking and one's own depression/functionality may have implications for future interventions.

Prevalence and Correlates of the Use of Prefilled Syringes Among Persons Who Inject Drugs in San Diego, CA.

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk for blood-borne virus (BBV) infections and overdose resulting from high-risk injecting practices. Studies of prefilled syringe use ([PFSU] using a syringe that already contained drug solution when it was obtained by the user), an injection practice previously described in Eastern Europe, suggest that it increases susceptibility to BBV. However, little is known about this practice in the USA. Data were obtained from an ongoing cohort study of PWID to determine the prevalence and assess correlates of PFSU in San Diego, CA. Baseline interviews assessed socio-demographics and drug use behaviors. Logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with ever using a prefilled syringe (yes/no). Participants (n = 574) were predominately males (73.9%) and white (50.9%) with a mean age of 43.4 years (range 18-80); 33.3% reported ever using prefilled syringes, although only 4.9% reported use in the past 6 months. In multivariable analyses, PFSU was independently associated with ever having a rushed injection due to police presence [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.51, 95% CI 1.66, 3.79], ever being in prison (AOR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.23, 2.63), injecting most often in public versus private places in the past 6 months (AOR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.11, 2.48), and injecting drugs in Mexico (AOR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.16, 2.49). Results indicate that a history of PFSU is common and associated with environmental factors that may also increase risk for adverse health outcomes. Studies are needed to better understand PFSU in order to develop interventions to prevent adverse outcomes associated with their use.

Prevalence and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection among newly arrived refugees in San Diego County, January 2010-October 2012.

OBJECTIVES: We determined the prevalence and treatment rates of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in newly arrived refugees in San Diego County, California, and assessed demographic and clinical characteristics associated with these outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed data from LTBI screening results of 4280 refugees resettled in San Diego County between January 2010 and October 2012. Using multivariate logistic regression, we calculated the associations between demographic and clinical risk factors and the outcomes of LTBI diagnosis and LTBI treatment initiation. RESULTS: The prevalence of LTBI was highest among refugees from sub-Saharan Africa (43%) and was associated with current smoking and having a clinical comorbidity that increases the risk for active tuberculosis. Although refugees from sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence of infection, they were significantly less likely to initiate treatment than refugees from the Middle East. Refugees with postsecondary education were significantly more likely to initiate LTBI treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Public health strategies are needed to increase treatment rates among high-risk refugees with LTBI. Particular attention is required among refugees from sub-Saharan Africa and those with less education.

Retrospective analysis of demographic and clinical factors associated with etiology of febrile respiratory illness among US military basic trainees.

BACKGROUND: Basic trainees in the US military have historically been vulnerable to respiratory infections. Adenovirus and influenza are the most common etiological agents responsible for febrile respiratory illness (FRI) among trainees and present with similar clinical signs and symptoms. Identifying demographic and clinical factors associated with the primary viral pathogens causing FRI epidemics among trainees will help improve differential diagnosis and allow for appropriate distribution of antiviral medications. The objective of this study was to determine what demographic and clinical factors are associated with influenza and adenovirus among military trainees. METHODS: Specimens were systematically collected from military trainees meeting FRI case definition (fever ≥38.0°C with either cough or sore throat; or provider-diagnosed pneumonia) at eight basic training centers in the USA. PCR and/or cell culture testing for respiratory pathogens were performed on specimens. Interviewer-administered questionnaires collected information on patient demographic and clinical factors. Polychotomous logistic regression was employed to assess the association between these factors and FRI outcome categories: laboratory-confirmed adenovirus, influenza, or other FRI. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value were calculated for individual predictors and clinical combinations of predictors. RESULTS: Among 21,570 FRI cases sampled between 2004 and 2009, 63.6% were laboratory-confirmed adenovirus cases and 6.6% were laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. Subjects were predominantly young men (86.8% men; mean age 20.8 ± 3.8 years) from Fort Jackson (18.8%), Great Lakes (17.1%), Fort Leonard Wood (16.3%), Marine Corps Recruit Depot (MCRD) San Diego (19.0%), Fort Benning (13.3%), Lackland (7.5%), MCRD Parris Island (8.7%), and Cape May (3.2%). The best multivariate predictors of adenovirus were the combination of sore throat (odds ratio [OR], 2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.66-3.25), cough (OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 2.11-2.57), and fever (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.90-2.26) with a PPV of 77% (p ≤ .05). A combination of cough, fever, training week 0-2 and acute onset were most predictive of influenza (PPV =38%; p ≤ .05). CONCLUSIONS: Specific demographic and clinical factors were associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza and adenovirus among military trainees. Findings from this study can guide clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of military trainees presenting with FRI.

Prevalence of PTSD and depression, and associated sexual risk factors, among male Rwanda Defense Forces military personnel.

OBJECTIVES: To assess depression and PTSD prevalence among the Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) and evaluate whether sexual risk behaviour, STIs, HIV and alcohol use were significantly higher among those who screened positive. METHODS: Consenting active-duty male RDF personnel, aged ≥21 years, completed an anonymous sexual risk survey linked to HIV rapid testing that included standardised assessments for PTSD (PCL-M), depression (CES-D) and alcohol use (AUDIT). PTSD and depression prevalence were calculated (data available for 1238 and 1120 participants, respectively), and multivariable regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: 22.5% screened positive for depression, 4.2% for PTSD and 3.4% for both. In adjusted analyses, odds of either depression or PTSD were significantly higher in participants reporting STI symptoms (OR = 2.27, 2.78, respectively) and harmful alcohol use (OR = 3.13, 3.21, respectively). Sex with a high-risk sex partner, lower rank and never deploying were also significantly associated with depression in adjusted analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly one-fourth of RDF participants screened positive for PTSD or depression, which impacts sexual risk behaviour, HIV acquisition risk and military readiness. Findings may extend to other deploying militaries and provide additional evidence of an association between mental health status and sexual risk behaviour. Effective mental health treatment interventions that also include alcohol use assessments, STI identification/treatment and sexual risk behaviour reduction are needed.

HIV seroprevalence, associated risk behavior, and alcohol use among male Rwanda Defense Forces military personnel.

A cross-sectional study was conducted among active-duty male soldiers, aged ≥21 years, in the Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) and included an anonymous behavioral survey and HIV rapid testing to determine risk factors associated with HIV seroprevalence. Overall prevalence was 2.6 % (95 % CI: 1.84-3.66); personnel who were divorced, separated or widowed, served ≥6 years, never deployed, uncircumcised, reported STI symptoms, had ≥6 lifetime sex partners, or screened positive for harmful alcohol use (via Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) had higher HIV prevalence. Ever being divorced, separated or widowed (OR = 29.8; 95 % CI: 5.5-159.9), and STI symptoms (OR = 3.4; 95 % CI: 1.5-7.6) were significantly associated with infection, after multivariable adjustment, while circumcision was protective (OR = 0.4; 95 % CI: 0.2-0.9). Despite mobility and other factors that uniquely influence HIV transmission in militaries, RDF prevalence was similar to the general population. A reason for this finding may be conservative sexual behavior combined with effective leadership-supported prevention programs. Data suggest a concentrated rather than generalized epidemic, with targets identified for intervention.

ICU Admission Risk Factors for Latinx COVID-19 Patients at a U.S.-Mexico Border Hospital.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have examined the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the primarily Latinx community along the U.S.-Mexico border. This study explores the socioeconomic impacts which contribute to strong predictors of severe COVID-19 complications such as intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization in a primarily Latinx/Hispanic U.S.-Mexico border hospital. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study of 156 patients (≥ 18 years) Latinx/Hispanic patients who were admitted for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection at a U.S.-Mexico border hospital from April 10, 2020, to May 30, 2020. Descriptive statistics of sex, age, body mass index (BMI), and comorbidities (coronary artery disease, hypertension, diabetes, cancer/lymphoma, current use of immunosuppressive drug therapy, chronic kidney disease/dialysis, or chronic respiratory disease). Multivariate regression models were produced from the most significant variables and factors for ICU admission. RESULTS: Of the 156 hospitalized Latinx patients, 63.5% were male, 84.6% had respiratory failure, and 45% were admitted to the ICU. The average age was 67.2 (± 12.2). Those with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 had a higher frequency of ICU admission. Males had a 4.4 (95% CI 1.58, 12.308) odds of ICU admission (p = 0.0047). Those who developed acute kidney injury (AKI) and BMI 25-29.9 were strong predictors of ICU admission (p < 0.001 and p = 0.0020, respectively). Those with at least one reported comorbidity had 1.98 increased odds (95% CI 1.313, 2.99) of an ICU admission. CONCLUSION: Findings show that age, AKI, and male sex were the strongest predictors of COVID-19 ICU admissions in the primarily Latinx population at the U.S.-Mexico border. These predictors are also likely driven by socioeconomic inequalities which are most apparent in border hospitals.

Determination of clinical and demographic predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza with subtype analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid influenza diagnosis is important for early identification of outbreaks, effective management of high-risk contacts, appropriate antiviral use, decreased inappropriate antibiotic use and avoidance of unnecessary laboratory testing. Given the inconsistent performance of many rapid influenza tests, clinical diagnosis remains integral for optimizing influenza management. However, reliable clinical diagnostic methods are not well-established. This study assesses predictors of influenza, and its various subtypes, in a broad population at the point of care, across age groups, then evaluates the performance of clinical case definitions composed of identified predictors. METHODS: Respiratory specimens and demographic and clinical data were obtained from 3- to 80-year-old US military family members presenting for care with influenza-like illness (ILI) from November 2007 to April 2008. Molecular and virus isolation techniques were used to detect and subtype influenza viruses. Associations between influenza diagnosis and demographic/clinical parameters were assessed by logistic regression, including influenza type and subtype analyses. The predictive values of multiple combinations of identified clinical predictors (case definitions), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ILI case definition, were estimated. RESULTS: Of 789 subjects, 220 (28%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza (51 A(H1), 46 A(H3), 19 A(unsubtypeable), 67 B, 1 AB coinfection), with the proportion of influenza A to B cases highest among 6- to 17-year-olds (p = 0.019). Independent predictors of influenza included fever, cough, acute onset, body aches, and vaccination status among 6- to 49-year-olds, only vaccination among 3- to 5-year-olds, and only fever among 50- to 80-year-olds. Among 6- to 49-year-olds, some clinical case definitions were highly sensitive (100.0%) or specific (98.6%), but none had both parameters over 60%, though many performed better than the CDC ILI case definition (sensitivity 37.7%, 95% confidence interval 33.6-41.9% in total study population). CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of influenza predictors differed across age groups, with most predictors identified among 6- to 49-year-olds. No combination of clinical and demographic predictors served as a reliable diagnostic case definition in the population and influenza season studied. A standardized clinical case definition combined with a point-of-care laboratory test may be the optimal rapid diagnostic strategy available.

Risk factors associated with complications and mortality in patients with Clostridium difficile infection.

BACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) has increased in frequency and severity over the past decade. An understanding of the modifiable risk factors for disease severity has considerable clinical applicability. METHODS: We performed a retrospective case review of 485 cases in patients aged 1-99 years at the Naval Medical Center San Diego from November 2004 through December 2008. We compared potential risk factors for association with complications (megacolon, surgery, intensive care unit stay, and death) or mortality alone with use of univariable and multivariable logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients (9.8%) developed ≥1 complication, and 23 (4.7%) died. We found independent associations between complications and acid suppression (odds ratio [OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-4.79), admission for CDI (OR, 4.14; 95% CI, 2.17-7.92), older age (≥80 years; OR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.46-6.73), and corticosteroid use (OR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.01-4.35). Age ≥80 years (OR, 5.51; 95% CI, 2.25-13.49) and acid suppression (OR, 4.74; 95% CI, 1.57-14.37) were associated with increased odds of death. CONCLUSIONS: Data published elsewhere have suggested that acid suppression therapy is a risk factor for CDI acquisition and relapse. These findings suggest an additional role in increased severity of disease, including mortality, and merit further study.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategies among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In Latin America, Mexico was first to launch a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategy, where people who inject drugs (PWID) are a main risk group for transmission. In Tijuana, HCV seroprevalence among PWID is > 90%, with minimal harm reduction (HR). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve the incidence elimination target among PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: Modeling study using a dynamic, cost-effectiveness model of HCV transmission and progression among active and former PWID in Tijuana, to assess the cost-effectiveness of incidence elimination strategies from a health-care provider perspective. The model incorporated PWID transitions between HR stages (no HR, only opioid agonist therapy, only high coverage needle-syringe programs, both). Four strategies that could achieve the incidence target (80% reduction by 2030) were compared with the status quo (no intervention). The strategies incorporated the number of direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) treatments required with: (1) no HR scale-up, (2) HR scale-up from 2019 to 20% coverage among PWID, (3) HR to 40% coverage and (4) HR to 50% coverage. Costs (2019 US$) and health outcomes [disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)] were discounted 3% per year. Mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, $/DALY averted) were compared with one-time per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ($9698 in 2019) and purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP ($4842-13 557) willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. RESULTS: DAAs alone were the least costly elimination strategy [$173 million, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 126-238 million], but accrued fewer health benefits compared with strategies with HR. DAAs + 50% HR coverage among PWID averted the most DALYs but cost $265 million, 95% CI = 210-335 million). The optimal strategy was DAAs + 50% HR (ICER $6743/DALY averted compared to DAAs only) under the one-time per-capita GDP WTP ($9698). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of high-coverage harm reduction and hepatitis C virus treatment is the optimal cost-effective strategy to achieve the HCV incidence elimination goal in Mexico.

Is hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination achievable among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico? A modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, Mexico became the first Latin American country committed to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, but the amount of intervention scale-up required is unclear. In Tijuana, HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) is high; yet there is minimal and intermittent harm reduction, and involuntary exposure to compulsory abstinence programs (CAP) occurs which is associated with increased HCV risk. We determined what combination intervention scale-up can achieve HCV elimination among current and former PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: We constructed a dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission, disease progression, and harm reduction among current and former PWID parameterized to Tijuana (~10,000 current PWID, 90% HCV seropositive, minimal opiate agonist therapy [OAT] or high coverage needle/syringe programs [HCNSP]). We evaluated the number of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments needed from 2019 to achieve elimination targets (80% incidence reduction, 65% mortality reduction by 2030) with: (a) DAAs alone, (b) DAAs plus scale-up of OAT+HCNSP (up to 50% coverage of OAT and HCNSP separately, producing 25% of PWID receiving both), (c) DAAs plus CAP scale-up to 50%. Scenarios examined the number of DAAs required if prioritized to current PWID or provided regardless of current injection status, and impact of harm reduction interruptions. RESULTS: Modeling suggests among ~30,000 current and former PWID in Tijuana, 16,160 (95%CI: 12,770-21,610) have chronic HCV. DAA scale-up can achieve the incidence target, requiring 770 treatments/year (95%CI: 640-970) if prioritized to current PWID. 40% fewer DAAs are required with OAT+HCNSP scale-up to 50% among PWID, whereas more are required with involuntary CAP scale-up. Both targets can only be achieved through treating both current and former PWID (1,710 treatments/year), and impact is reduced with harm reduction interruptions. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination targets are achievable in Tijuana through scale-up of harm reduction and DAA therapy, whereas involuntary CAP and harm reduction interruptions hamper elimination.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a real-world HCV treatment program among HIV-infected individuals in Myanmar.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of those hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV coinfected live in low-income and middle-income countries, and many remain undiagnosed or untreated. In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) established a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for people HCV/HIV coinfected in Myanmar. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the real-world cost and cost-effectiveness of this programme, and potential cost-effectiveness if implemented by the Ministry of Health (MoH). METHODS: Costs (patient-level microcosting) and treatment outcomes were collected from the MSF prospective cohort study in Dawei, Myanmar. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness of the programme compared with no HCV treatment from a health provider perspective. Estimated lifetime and healthcare costs (in 2017 US$) and health outcomes (in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) were simulated to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of per capita Gross Domestic Product in Myanmar ($1250). We evaluated cost-effectiveness with updated quality-assured generic DAA prices and potential cost-effectiveness of a proposed simplified treatment protocol with updated DAA prices if implemented by the MoH. RESULTS: From November 2016 to October 2017, 122 with HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were treated with DAAs (46% with cirrhosis), 96% (n=117) achieved sustained virological response. Mean treatment costs were $1229 (without cirrhosis) and $1971 (with cirrhosis), with DAA drugs being the largest contributor to cost. Compared with no treatment, the program was cost-effective (ICER $634/DALY averted); more so with updated prices for quality-assured generic DAAs (ICER $488/DALY averted). A simplified treatment protocol delivered by the MoH could be cost-effective if associated with similar outcomes (ICER $316/DALY averted). CONCLUSIONS: Using MSF programme data, the DAA treatment programme for HCV among HIV-coinfected individuals is cost-effective in Myanmar, and even more so with updated DAA prices. A simplified treatment protocol could enhance cost-effectiveness if further rollout demonstrates it is not associated with worse treatment outcomes.

Hypothyroidism among military infants born in countries of varied iodine nutrition status.

BACKGROUND: Iodine deficiency is a global problem representing the most common preventable cause of mental retardation. Recently, the impact of subtle deficiencies in iodine intake on children and pregnant women has been questioned. This study was designed to compare hypothyroidism among infants born to US military families in countries of varied iodine nutrition status. METHODS: A cohort design was used to analyze data from the Department of Defense Birth and Infant Health Registry for infants born in 2000-04 (n = 447,691). Hypothyroidism was defined using ICD-9-CM codes from the first year of life (n = 698). The impact of birth location on hypothyroidism was assessed by comparing rates in Germany, Japan, and US territories with the United States, while controlling for infant gender, plurality, gestational age, maternal age, maternal military status, and military parent's race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Hypothyroidism did not vary by birth location with adjusted odds ratios (OR) as follows: Germany (OR 0.82, [95% CI 0.50, 1.35]), Japan (OR 0.67, [95% CI 0.37, 1.22]), and US territories (OR 1.29, [95% CI 0.57, 2.89]). Hypothyroidism was strongly associated with preterm birth (OR 5.44, [95% CI 4.60, 6.42]). Hypothyroidism was also increased among infants with civilian mothers (OR 1.24, [95% CI 1.00, 1.54]), and older mothers, especially ages 40 years and older (OR 2.09, [95% CI 1.33, 3.30]). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, hypothyroidism in military-dependent infants did not vary by birth location, but was associated with other risk factors, including preterm birth, civilian maternal status, and advanced maternal age.