Single Pedicle Advancement Flap Models for Teaching Veterinary Reconstructive Surgical Techniques.

Reconstructive surgical techniques are used in both general and referral veterinary practice to facilitate closure of challenging wound defects. During veterinary studies, there are often limited opportunities for students to practice these techniques on live patients or cadavers. Surgical models, including suture pads and ovariohysterectomy models, have been successfully incorporated into veterinary teaching, providing students with additional practice. Models to simulate veterinary reconstructive surgical techniques are lacking. In the current study, a single pedicle advancement flap model was designed. The design consisted of a silicone model secured by a plate, providing tension. Fifth-year veterinary science students (n = 34) were surveyed to assess the model's impact on surgical technique and confidence. Students were also assessed to determine surgical technique using the models. It was hypothesized that students who had two additional practice sessions using the models (Trial group, n = 17) would show greater improvement in technique than students who had no practice sessions between assessments (Control group, n = 17). Students strongly agreed (median score 5/5) that using the model helped to reinforce the subdermal plexus flap technique and improved their confidence in performing a subdermal plexus flap. Students from both groups performed significantly better in the follow-up assessment compared to the initial assessment. No significantly greater improvement was observed in technique between the control and the trial groups. Results suggest that the students' reconstructive surgical technique improved after a single practice session and that the single pedicle advancement flap model can be used synergistically with other teaching methods.

Using roaming behaviours of dogs to estimate contact rates: the predicted effect on rabies spread.

Domestic dogs display complex roaming behaviours, which need to be captured to more realistically model the spread of rabies. We have previously shown that roaming behaviours of domestic dogs can be categorised as stay-at-home, roamer and explorer in the Northern Peninsular Area (NPA), Queensland, Australia. These roaming behaviours are likely to cause heterogeneous contact rates that influence the speed or pattern of rabies spread in a dog population. The aim of this study was to define contact spatial kernels using the overlap of individual dog utilisation distributions to describe the daily probability of contact between pairs of dogs exhibiting these three a priori roaming behaviours. We further aimed to determine if the kernels lead to different predicted rabies outbreaks (outbreak duration and number of rabid dogs) by incorporating the spatial kernels into a previously developed rabies spread model for the NPA. Spatial kernels created with both dogs in a pair being explorers or one dog explorer and one dog roamer (who roamed away from their residence) produced short but large outbreaks compared with spatial kernels with at least one stay-at-home dog. Outputs from this model incorporating heterogeneous contacts demonstrate how roaming behaviours influence disease spread in domestic dog populations.

Are we joining the One Health dots? A scoping review of research on the one health effects of extreme weather events in eastern Australia.

Extreme weather events such as floods, bushfires, cyclones, and drought, are projected to increase in eastern Australia. Understanding how these events influence the combined, sustainable well-being of humans, animals, and ecosystems - that is One Health - will enable development of transdisciplinary and ultimately more effective interventions. A scoping review was conducted to explore the research associated with the effects of extreme weather events in eastern Australia using a One Health lens, specifically identifying the type of extreme weather events studied, the research conducted in the context of One Health, and gaps to inform improved One Health implementation. The review followed JBI guidelines (based on PRISMA). Eligible research was peer-reviewed, in English, and published since 2007, in which primary research studies investigated the impact of extreme weather events in eastern Australia on at least two of ecosystems, human health, and animal health. Using structured search terms, six databases were searched. Following removal of duplicates, 870 records were screened by two reviewers. Eleven records were eligible for data extraction and charting. The scope of extreme weather events studied was relatively limited, with studies in flood and bushfire settings predominating, but relatively little research on cyclones. Major health themes included more than the impact of extreme weather events on physical health (zoonotic and vector-borne diseases) through investigation of social well-being and mental health in the context of the human-animal bond in evacuation behaviors and drought. Research gaps include studies across a broader range of extreme weather events and health topics, as well as a more comprehensive approach to including the impacts of extreme weather events on all three domains of One Health. The limited research focus inevitably translates to limited recommendations for policy, planning and response to manage extreme weather event emergencies. Given the expected increase in frequency of these events, there is a critical need for more comprehensive primary research to better identify strategies and facilitate implementation of One Health promotion for improved outcomes in extreme weather event emergencies.

Eliminate all risks: A call to reexamine the link between canine scabies and rheumatic heart disease.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and acute rheumatic fever (ARF) disproportionately affect individuals in low-resource settings. ARF is attributed to an immune response to Group A Streptococcus (GAS) following GAS pharyngitis and potentially GAS impetigo in which infection can be initiated by scabies infestation. The burden of ARF and RHD in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia is among the highest globally. Following recent calls to include dog management programs in ARF and RHD prevention programs, we believe it is timely to assess the evidence for this, particularly since previous recommendations excluded resources to prevent zoonotic canine scabies. While phylogenetic analyses have suggested that the Sarcoptes mite is host specific, they have differed in interpretation of the strength of their findings regarding species cross-over and the need for canine scabies control to prevent human itch. Given that there is also indication from case reports that canine scabies leads to human itch, we propose that further investigation of the potential burden of zoonotic canine scabies and intervention trials of canine scabies prevention on the incidence of impetigo are warranted. Considering the devastating impacts of ARF and RHD, evidence is required to support policy to eliminate all risk factors.

A scoping review of evidence of naturally occurring Japanese encephalitis infection in vertebrate animals other than humans, ardeid birds and pigs.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is the leading cause of human encephalitis in Asia. JEV is a vector-borne disease, mainly transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, with Ardeidae birds as maintenance hosts and pigs as amplifying hosts. Other vertebrate animal hosts have been suggested to play a role in the epidemiology of JEV. This scoping review followed PRISMA guidelines to identify species in which evidence of naturally occurring JEV infection was detected in vertebrates other than ardeid birds, pigs and people. Following systematic searches, 4372 records were screened, and data were extracted from 62 eligible studies. Direct evidence (virus, viral antigen or viral RNA) of JEV infection was identified in a variety of mammals and birds (not always identified to the species level), including bats, passerine birds (family Turdidae), livestock (cattle [Bos taurus] and a goat [Capra hircus]), carnivores (two meerkats [Suricata suricatta]), and one horse (Equus caballus). Bat families included Pteropodidae, Vespertilionidae, Rhinolophidae, Miniopteridae, Hipposideridae. Indirect evidence (antibodies) was identified in several mammalian and avian orders, as well as reported in two reptile species. However, a major limitation of the evidence of JEV infection identified in this review was diagnostic test accuracy, particularly for serological testing. Studies generally did not report diagnostic sensitivity or specificity which is critical given the potential for cross-reactivity in orthoflavivirus detection. We hypothesise that bats and passerine birds could play an underappreciated role in JEV epidemiology; however, development of diagnostic tests to differentiate JEV from other orthoflaviviruses will be essential for effective surveillance in these, as well as the companion and livestock species that could be used to evaluate JEV control measures in currently endemic regions.

The effect of cystic echinococcosis (hydatid disease) on carcase weight in cattle in eastern Australia.

Cystic echinococcosis is caused by the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus. There has been ongoing controversy over whether it causes weight loss in cattle. Recently implemented recording of comorbidities at processors has provided opportunity to investigate this effect. Using prevalence-based observational data from 1,648,049 adult cattle processed in seven states and territories in Australia (2019-2022), we explored associations between carcase weight, hydatid cysts, comorbidities, sex, age, and region. Linear mixed-effect regression models estimated the effect of cystic echinococcosis on carcase weight, guided by directed acyclic graphs to reduce bias. The highest, previously unreported, prevalence was in the southeast Queensland region. The estimated effect of cystic echinococcosis cysts on carcase weight ranged from a gain of 0.32 kg/carcase (standard error [se] 0.58 kg; two-tooth 2022) to a loss of -5.45 kg/carcase (se 0.63 kg; six-tooth 2019) with most point estimates (11/16) between 0 and -2.5 kg across all cattle grouped by year and dentition. This effect size would be practically undetectable in live cattle which is an important finding; cattle producers are unlikely to observe increased productivity through weight gain from cystic echinococcosis prevention in cattle, and awareness to strengthen prevention in domestic dogs around cattle properties to reduce human risk remains a public health focus.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis virus infection in pig populations of eastern Uttar Pradesh, India, 2013-2022.

AIMS: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is endemic in India. Although pigs are considered important hosts and sentinels for JE outbreaks in people, limited information is available on JE virus (JEV) surveillance in pigs. METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated the spatio-temporal distribution of JEV seroprevalence and its association with climate variables in 4451 samples from pigs in 10 districts of eastern Uttar Pradesh, India, over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. The mean seroprevalence of IgG (2013-2022) and IgM (2017-2022) was 14% (95% CI 12.8-15.2) and 10.98% (95% CI 9.8-12.2), respectively. Throughout the region, higher seroprevalence from 2013 to 2017 was observed and was highly variable with no predictable spatio-temporal pattern between districts. Seroprevalence of up to 60.8% in Sant Kabir Nagar in 2016 and 69.5% in Gorakhpur district in 2017 for IgG and IgM was observed, respectively. IgG seroprevalence did not increase with age. Monthly time-series decomposition of IgG and IgM seroprevalence demonstrated annual cyclicity (3-4 peaks) with seasonality (higher, broader peaks in the summer and monsoon periods). However, most variance was due to the overall trend and the random components of the time series. Autoregressive time-series modelling of pigs sampled from Gorakhpur was insufficiently predictive for forecasting; however, an inverse association between humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Detection patterns confirm seasonal epidemic periods within year-round endemicity in pigs in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Lack of increasing age-associated seroprevalence indicates that JEV might not be immunizing in pigs which needs further investigation because models that inform public health interventions for JEV could be inaccurate if assuming long-term immunity in pigs. Although pigs are considered sentinels for human outbreaks, sufficient timeliness using sero-surveillance in pigs to inform public health interventions to prevent JEV in people will require more nuanced modelling than seroprevalence and broad climate variables alone.

An evaluation of the landscape structure and La Niña climatic anomalies associated with Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks reported in Australian piggeries in 2022.

The widespread activity of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) reported in previously unaffected regions of eastern and southern Australia in 2022 represents the most significant local arbovirus emergency in almost 50 years. Japanese encephalitis virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in wild ardeid birds and amplified in pigs, the latter of which suffer significant reproductive losses as a result of infection. The landscape epidemiology of JEV in mainland Australia is almost entirely unknown, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the country where the virus has not been previously documented. Although other areas with endemic JEV circulation in the Indo-Pacific region have demonstrated the importance of wild waterbird-livestock interface in agricultural-wetland mosaics, no such investigation has yet determined the composition and configuration of pathogenic landscapes for Australia. Moreover, the recent emergence in Australia has followed substantial precipitation and temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This study investigated the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in Australian piggeries reported between January and April of 2022 to determine the influence of ardeid habitat suitability, hydrogeography, hydrology, land cover and La Niña-associated climate anomalies. Outbreaks of JEV in domestic pigs were associated with intermediate ardeid species richness, cultivated land and grassland fragmentation, waterway proximity, temporary wetlands, and hydrological flow accumulation. This study has identified the composition and configuration of landscape features that were associated with piggery outbreaks reported in 2022 in Australia. Although preliminary, these findings can inform actionable strategies for the development of new One Health JEV surveillance specific to the needs of Australia.

Corrigendum: A practical introduction to mechanistic modeling of disease transmission in veterinary science.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.546651.].

The right strategy for you: Using the preferences of beef farmers to guide biosecurity recommendations for on-farm management of endemic disease.

Effective on-farm biosecurity measures are crucial to the post-border protection of emerging agricultural diseases and are the foundation of endemic disease control. Implementation of on-farm biosecurity measures are contingent on the priorities of individual producers, which can often be neglected for other aspects of the farming enterprise. The on-farm approach to prevention of endemic diseases, like bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), is inconsistent between farms and it is not realistic to assume that farmers take an entirely normative approach to on-farm decision making. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been used for disease prioritisation and national disease control in human and animal health; however, it is yet to be used as a decision tool for disease control at the farm level. This study used MCDA to determine the most appropriate biosecurity combinations for management of BVDV, based on the preferences of Australian beef producers. Beef producer preferences were obtained from an online survey using indirect collection methods. Point of truth calibration was used to aggregate producer preferences and the performance scores of 23 biosecurity combinations for control of BVDV based on four main criteria: the probability of BVDV introduction, the on-farm impact of BVDV, the off-farm impact of BVDV and the annual input cost of the practice. The MCDA found that biosecurity combinations that included "double-fencing farm boundaries" used in conjunction with "vaccination against BVDV" were most appropriate for management of BVDV in an initially naïve, self-replacing seasonal single-calving beef herd over a 15-year period. Beef producers prioritised practices that preserved the on-farm health of their cattle more than any other criteria, a finding that was persistent regardless of demographic or farming type. Consequently, combinations with "vaccination against BVDV" were consistently ranked higher than those that included "strategic exposure of a persistently infected cow," which is sometimes used by Australian beef producers instead of vaccination. Findings of this study indicate that the benefits of "double-fencing farm boundaries" and "vaccination against BVDV" outweigh the relatively high cost associated with these practices based on the priorities of the Australian beef producer and may be used to demonstrate the benefits of on-farm biosecurity during discussions between livestock veterinarians and beef farmers.

Understanding biosecurity behaviors of Australian beef cattle farmers using the ten basic human values framework.

Introduction: On-farm biosecurity is an essential component of successful disease management in the beef cattle industry on an individual, regional, and national level. Participation in mandatory or voluntary assurance schemes, knowledge and trusted relationships have all been demonstrated to contribute to the development of behaviors that promote biosecurity. However, compliance with rules, socio-psychological relationships and knowledge-seeking behavior are all contingent upon the motivations and beliefs of the individual. It is widely accepted that the motivations and beliefs of all cultures can be defined by ten basic values (Self-direction, Stimulation, Hedonism, Achievement, Power, Security, Conformity, Tradition, Benevolence and Universalism). In this study, we use the ten basic values to characterize the on-farm biosecurity behaviors of Australian beef farmers to facilitate the identification of interventions that are most likely to align with producer motivations and therefore, more likely to result in wider adoption of effective on-farm biosecurity. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 Australian beef farmers to discuss the reasons behind decisions to alter or implement biosecurity practices in response to endemic diseases. Thematic analysis was used to identify the motivations, opportunities, and capability of biosecurity behaviors. The ten basic human values were used to characterize these behaviors and inform enablers and barriers to biosecurity adoption. Results and discussion: Benevolence and Self-direction, relating to self-transcendence and an openness to change, were the principal values associated with good biosecurity behaviors. This suggests that farmers will be receptive to education strategies that communicate the actual risk of disease in their area, the impact of disease on animal welfare, and the ability for on-farm biosecurity to mitigate these impacts. Farmers also expressed values of Security which entrenched behaviors as common practice; however, in some cases the Security of trusted relationships was identified as a potential barrier to behavior change. Overall, values associated with biosecurity behaviors were found to align with values that are most important for social cohesion, suggesting that collaborative disease efforts between industry stakeholders and farmers are likely to succeed if designed with these values in mind.

Communication Interventions and Assessment of Drivers for Hendra Virus Vaccination Uptake.

Hendra virus disease (HeVD) is an emerging zoonosis in Australia, resulting from the transmission of Hendra virus (HeV) to horses from Pteropus bats. Vaccine uptake for horses is low despite the high case fatality rate of HeVD in both horses and people. We reviewed evidence-based communication interventions to promote and improve HeV vaccine uptake for horses by horse owners and conducted a preliminary evaluation of potential drivers for HeV vaccine uptake using the Behavioural and Social Drivers of Vaccination (BeSD) framework developed by the World Health Organization. Six records were eligible for review following a comprehensive search and review strategy of peer-reviewed literature, but evidence-based communication interventions to promote and improve HeV vaccine uptake for horses were lacking. An evaluation of potential drivers for HeV vaccine uptake using the BeSD framework indicated that horse owners' perceptions, beliefs, social processes, and practical issues are similar to those experienced by parents making decisions about childhood vaccines, although the overall motivation to vaccinate is lower amongst horse owners. Some aspects of HeV vaccine uptake are not accounted for in the BeSD framework (for example, alternative mitigation strategies such as covered feeding stations or the zoonotic risk of HeV). Overall, problems associated with HeV vaccine uptake appear well-documented. We, therefore, propose to move from a problems-focused to a solutions-focused approach to reduce the risk of HeV for humans and horses. Following our findings, we suggest that the BeSD framework could be modified and used to develop and evaluate communication interventions to promote and improve HeV vaccine uptake by horse owners, which could have a global application to promote vaccine uptake for other zoonotic diseases in animals, such as rabies.

One size does not fit all: Exploring the economic and non-economic outcomes of on-farm biosecurity for bovine viral diarrhoea virus in Australian beef production.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a disease of global importance, affecting the production and welfare of cattle enterprises through poor reproductive performance and calf mortality. In Australia, the prevention of BVDV introduction and spread is primarily achieved with on-farm biosecurity; however, the use of these practices can vary amongst producers. Economic utility is commonly identified as a contributor to the uptake of on-farm biosecurity, but other factors such as animal welfare, producer priorities and introduction risk also influence farmer behaviour. This study uses an individual-based, stochastic simulation model to examine the economic and non-economic value of 23 on-farm biosecurity combinations for the control of BVDV in Australian beef farms without (N0) and with (N1) a neighbouring population of persistently infected (PI) cattle. Combinations of quarantine of purchased bulls (Q), hygiene during herd health events (H), double-fencing adjacent boundaries with neighbouring farms (F) and vaccination against BVDV (V) were tested. This study is the first to simulate the use of strategic PI exposure (PI) as an alternative to V, a contentious practice performed by some Australian beef farmers. Introduction of BVDV into a naïve 300-breeder self-replacing beef herd was achieved through the purchase of PI bulls (N0 and N1 herds) and over-the-fence contact with neighbouring PI animals (N1 herds only). The predicted median cumulative loss due to BVDV over a 15-year period was AUD$172/breeder and AUD$453/breeder for an N0 and N1 herd, respectively. Early establishment of BVDV in the simulation period was found to be the primary factor contributing to economic loss. Consequently, the Q and QF combinations resulted in the highest predicted average annual cost-benefit for BVDV-free N0 and N1 herds. In the five years following establishment of BVDV, use of QP (N0 herds) and V (N1 herds) combinations were most cost-effective. Combinations that involved V and P (in conjunction with F in N1 herds) also resulted in the lowest number of PI animals sold to other farms or feedlots over the simulation period. However, in both N0 and N1 herds, P resulted in the highest number of infected cattle, which has implications for poor animal welfare and increased antimicrobial use on Australian beef farms. The outcomes reported in this study can guide decisions to prevent BVDV introduction and spread on extensive beef farms using on-farm biosecurity, based on the risk of BVDV exposure and the priorities of the individual farmer.

A Scoping Review of the Global Distribution of Causes and Syndromes Associated with Mid- to Late-Term Pregnancy Loss in Horses between 1960 and 2020.

Equine pregnancy loss is frustrating and costly for horse breeders. The reproductive efficiency of mares has significant implications for a breeding operation's economic success, and widespread losses can have a trickle-down effect on those communities that rely on equine breeding operations. Understanding the causes and risks of equine pregnancy loss is essential for developing prevention and management strategies to reduce the occurrence and impact on the horse breeding industry. This PRISMA-guided scoping review identified 514 records on equine pregnancy loss and described the global spatiotemporal distribution of reported causes and syndromes. The multiple correspondence analysis identified seven clusters that grouped causes, syndromes, locations and pathology. Reasons for clustering should be the focus of future research as they might indicate undescribed risk factors associated with equine pregnancy loss. People engaged in the equine breeding industry work closely with horses and encounter equine bodily fluids, placental membranes, aborted foetuses, and stillborn foals. This close contact increases the risk of zoonotic disease transmission. Based on this review, research is required on equine abortion caused by zoonotic bacteria, including Chlamydia psittaci, Coxiella burnetii and Leptospira spp., because of the severe illness that can occur in people who become infected.

Stray Dogs and Public Health: Population Estimation in Punjab, India.

The overpopulation of stray dogs is a serious public health and animal welfare concern in India. Neglected zoonotic diseases such as rabies and echinococcosis are transmitted at the stray-dog human interface, particularly in low to middle-income countries. The current study was designed to estimate the stray dog populations in Punjab to enhance the implementation of animal birth and disease (for example, rabies vaccination) control programs. This is the first systematic estimation of the stray dog population using a recommended method (mark-re-sight) in Punjab, India. The study was conducted from August 2016 to November 2017 in selected villages or wards in Punjab. For the rural areas, 22 sub-districts in each district were randomly selected, then one village from each of the 22 selected sub-districts was selected (by convenience sampling). For urban areas, 3 towns (less than 100,000 human population) and 2 large cities (more than or equal to 100,000 human population) were randomly selected, followed by convenience selection of two wards from each of the 5 selected towns/cities. To estimate the dog population size, we used a modified mark-re-sight procedure and analysed counts using two methods; the Lincoln-Petersen formula with Chapman's correction, and an application of Good-Turing theory (SuperDuplicates method; estimated per km2 and per 1000 adult humans and were compared between localities (villages vs. towns), dog sex (male vs. female) and age group (young vs. adult) using linear mixed models with district as a random effect. The predicted mean (95% CI) count of the dogs per village or ward were extrapolated to estimate the number of stray dogs in Punjab based on (a) the number of villages and wards in the state; (b) the adult human population of the state and (c) the built-up area of the state. Median stray dog populations per village and per ward using the Lincoln-Petersen formula with Chapman's correction were estimated to be 33 and 65 dogs, respectively. Higher estimates of 61 per village and 112 per ward are reported using the SuperDuplicates method. The number of males was significantly higher than the number of females and the number of adult dogs was about three times the number of young dogs. Based on different methods, estimates of the mean stray dog population in the state of Punjab ranged from 519,000 to 1,569,000. The current study revealed that there are a substantial number of stray dogs and a high number reside in rural (versus urban) areas in Punjab. The estimated stray dog numbers pose a potential public health hazard in Punjab. This impact requires assessment. The estimated stray dog numbers will help develop a dog population and rabies control program in which information about the logistics required as well as costs of implementing such programmes in Punjab can be incorporated.

Rabies in Our Neighbourhood: Preparedness for an Emerging Infectious Disease.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) events have the potential to cause devastating impacts on human, animal and environmental health. A range of tools exist which can be applied to address EID event detection, preparedness and response. Here we use a case study of rabies in Southeast Asia and Oceania to illustrate, via nearly a decade of research activities, how such tools can be systematically integrated into a framework for EID preparedness. During the past three decades, canine rabies has spread to previously free areas of Southeast Asia, threatening the rabies-free status of countries such as Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The program of research to address rabies preparedness in the Oceanic region has included scanning and surveillance to define the emerging nature of canine rabies within the Southeast Asia region; field studies to collect information on potential reservoir species, their distribution and behaviour; participatory and sociological studies to identify priorities for disease response; and targeted risk assessment and disease modelling studies. Lessons learnt include the need to develop methods to collect data in remote regions, and the need to continuously evaluate and update requirements for preparedness in response to evolving drivers of emerging infectious disease.

Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.

Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model.

Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters-such as home range size and density-derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5-97.5 percentiles: 2-101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km2, and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial.

Quantitative risk assessment of human Taenia solium exposure from consuming pork produced in Punjab, India.

Taenia solium cysticercosis is a neglected zoonosis that affects people throughout much of the developing world. The disease is endemic in Punjab state of India and controlling it is a public health challenge. No studies have been conducted to quantify the risk of T. solium exposure from consuming pork produced in the state. A stochastic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model was constructed to understand the risk of human T. solium infection from consuming pork produced in Punjab. Input data were collected from official records, published literature, active surveillance and specifically for this study. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the influence of the input parameters on the main output probability that any one pork meal is infective (contains at least one viable cyst) at consumption. The probability of any pork meal in Punjab containing at least one viable T. solium cyst post-storage and post-cooking was median 5.57 × 10-4 (95% PI 1.06 × 10-4 -1.95 × 10-3 ). Sobol' sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the most influential input parameters on consumption of a pork meal with at least one viable T. solium were the probability that a meal is insufficiently cooked to render cysts unviable, and the proportion of infected carcasses following informal slaughter. Whilst improved sanitation and hygiene can prevent cysticercosis in people, efforts to reduce the prevalence of T. solium cysts in pig carcases by preventing pigs' access to human waste, increasing meat inspection and promoting effective cooking practices are also important to reduce this source of taeniasis.

Changes in the Framing of Antimicrobial Resistance in Print Media in Australia and the United Kingdom (2011-2020): A Comparative Qualitative Content and Trends Analysis.

Educating the public about antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is considered a key part of an optimal public health response. In both media depictions and policy discourses around health risks, how a problem is framed underpins public awareness and understanding, while also guiding opinions on what actions can and should be taken. Using a mixed methods approach we analyse newspaper content in Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) from 2011 to 2020 to track how causes, consequences and solutions to AMR are represented in countries with different policy approaches. Analyses demonstrate greater variability in the frames used in UK newspapers reflecting large hospital and community outbreaks and a sustained period of policy reform mid-decade. Newspapers in Australia focus more on AMR causes and consequences, highlighting the importance of scientific discovery, whereas UK coverage has greater discussion of the social and economic drivers of AMR and their associated solutions. Variations in the trends of different frames around AMR in UK newspapers indicate greater levels of public deliberation and debate around immediate and actionable solutions; whereas AMR has not had the same health and political impacts in Australia resulting in a media framing that potentially encourages greater public complacency about the issue.