Assessing Direct and Spillover Effects of Intervention Packages in Network-randomized Studies.

BACKGROUND: Intervention packages may result in a greater public health impact than single interventions. Understanding the separate impact of each component on the overall package effectiveness can improve intervention delivery. METHODS: We adapted an approach to evaluate the effects of a time-varying intervention package in a network-randomized study. In some network-randomized studies, only a subset of participants in exposed networks receive the intervention themselves. The spillover effect contrasts average potential outcomes if a person was not exposed to themselves under intervention in the network versus no intervention in a control network. We estimated the effects of components of the intervention package in HIV Prevention Trials Network 037, a Phase III network-randomized HIV prevention trial among people who inject drugs and their risk networks using marginal structural models to adjust for time-varying confounding. The index participant in an intervention network received a peer education intervention initially at baseline, then boosters at 6 and 12 months. All participants were followed to ascertain HIV risk behaviors. RESULTS: There were 560 participants with at least one follow-up visit, 48% of whom were randomized to the intervention, and 1,598 participant visits were observed. The spillover effect of the boosters in the presence of initial peer education training was a 39% rate reduction (rate ratio = 0.61; 95% confidence interval = 0.43, 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: These methods will be useful for evaluating intervention packages in studies with network features.

Overall, Direct, Spillover, and Composite Effects of Components of a Peer-Driven Intervention Package on Injection Risk Behavior Among People Who Inject Drugs in the HPTN 037 Study.

We sought to disentangle effects of the components of a peer-education intervention on self-reported injection risk behaviors among people who inject drugs (n = 560) in Philadelphia, US. We examined 226 egocentric groups/networks randomized to receive (or not) the intervention. Peer-education training consisted of two components delivered to the intervention network index individual only: (1) an initial training and (2) "booster" training sessions during 6- and 12-month follow up visits. In this secondary data analysis, using inverse-probability-weighted log-binomial mixed effects models, we estimated the effects of the components of the network-level peer-education intervention upon subsequent risk behaviors. This included contrasting outcome rates if a participant is a network member [non-index] under the network exposure versus under the network control condition (i.e., spillover effects). We found that compared to control networks, among intervention networks, the overall rates of injection risk behaviors were lower in both those recently exposed (i.e., at the prior visit) to a booster (rate ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.61 [0.46-0.82]) and those not recently exposed to it (0.81 [0.67-0.98]). Only the boosters had statistically significant spillover effects (e.g., 0.59 [0.41-0.86] for recent exposure). Thus, both intervention components reduced injection risk behaviors with evidence of spillover effects for the boosters. Spillover should be assessed for an intervention that has an observable behavioral measure. Efforts to fully understand the impact of peer education should include routine evaluation of spillover effects. To maximize impact, boosters can be provided along with strategies to recruit especially committed peer educators and to increase attendance at trainings. Clinical Trials Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00038688 June 5, 2002.

RESUMEN: Intentamos desenmarañar los efectos de los componentes de una intervención de educación entre pares sobre los comportamientos de inyección de riesgo autorreportados entre personas que se inyectan drogas (n = 560; 226 grupos/redes egocéntricos(as)) aleatorizados(as) a recibir (o no) la intervención en Filadelfia, EUA. Dos componentes fueron administrados a índices de redes de intervención: una capacitación inicial y sesiones de "refuerzo" durante visitas de seguimiento. Usando modelos log-binomial de efectos mixtos ponderados por probabilidad inversa, estimamos los efectos de dichos componentes sobre los comportamientos de riesgo posteriores. Encontramos que en comparación con las redes control, en las redes de intervención, las tasas generales de comportamientos de inyección de riesgo fueron más bajas en ambas aquellas expuestas recientemente a un refuerzo (razón de tasas [intervalo de confianza del 95%]: 0.61 [0.46­0.82]) y aquellas no expuestas recientemente (0.81 [0.67­0.98]). Solamente los refuerzos tuvieron efectos derrame (i.e., contraste de las tasas de resultados si es miembro [no índice] de una red en una red con exposición reciente versus bajo la condición control) significativos (p. ej., 0.59 [0.41­0.86] para la exposición reciente).

A mixed-methods study to inform development of a caregiver-specific problem list for cancer distress screening.

OBJECTIVE: Oncology guidelines for distress management recommend use of the single-item distress thermometer (DT) and accompanying Problem List (PL) to identify patients with high distress levels and their potential sources of distress. However, oncology practices have yet to establish standardized protocols to screen and triage caregivers with high distress levels. With an eye toward integrating caregiver-centered support services into cancer care, this mixed-methods study sought to assess caregiver distress and challenges that may contribute to their distress. METHODS: Nineteen caregivers of metastatic breast cancer patients (60% female, 47% ethnic/racial minority) completed an interview and a survey comprised of the DT, the original 39-item PL, and five additional caregiver-specific PL items. RESULTS: Caregivers reported moderate distress levels and more than half exceeded the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) cut-off, denoting significant distress. There was no association between caregiver distress and the number of items endorsed on the original PL. Qualitative analysis identified nine problem domains as areas of caregiver unmet need needs (i.e., practical challenges, caregiving responsibilities, social/relationship issues, caregiver and patient emotional well-being, caregiver and patient physical well-being, spiritual well-being, and communication). Two of the problem domains (caregiving responsibilities and communication) were not captured in any way by the original PL. CONCLUSION: With further research and development, the identified domains could serve as the basis for a caregiver-specific PL to facilitate triage and referral when incorporated as part of routine distress screening.

Finding influential subjects in a network using a causal framework.

Researchers across a wide array of disciplines are interested in finding the most influential subjects in a network. In a network setting, intervention effects and health outcomes can spill over from one node to another through network ties, and influential subjects are expected to have a greater impact than others. For this reason, network research in public health has attempted to maximize health and behavioral changes by intervening on a subset of influential subjects. Although influence is often defined only implicitly in most of the literature, the operative notion of influence is inherently causal in many cases: influential subjects are those we should intervene on to achieve the greatest overall effect across the entire network. In this work, we define a causal notion of influence using potential outcomes. We review existing influence measures, such as node centrality, that largely rely on the particular features of the network structure and/or on certain diffusion models that predict the pattern of information or diseases spreads through network ties. We provide simulation studies to demonstrate when popular centrality measures can agree with our causal measure of influence. As an illustrative example, we apply several popular centrality measures to the HIV risk network in the Transmission Reduction Intervention Project and demonstrate the assumptions under which each centrality can represent the causal influence of each participant in the study.

Evaluating the Mediating Role of Recall of Intervention Knowledge in the Relationship Between a Peer-Driven Intervention and HIV Risk Behaviors Among People Who Inject Drugs.

Peer-driven interventions can be effective in reducing HIV injection risk behaviors among people who inject drugs (PWID). We employed a causal mediation framework to examine the mediating role of recall of intervention knowledge in the relationship between a peer-driven intervention and subsequent self-reported HIV injection-related risk behavior among PWID in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 037 study. For each intervention network, the index participant received training at baseline to become a peer educator, while non-index participants and all participants in the control networks received only HIV testing and counseling; recall of intervention knowledge was measured at the 6-month visit for each participant, and each participant was followed to ascertain HIV injection-related risk behaviors at the 12-month visit. We used inverse probability weighting to fit marginal structural models to estimate the total effect (TE) and controlled direct effect (CDE) of the intervention on the outcome. The proportion eliminated (PE) by intervening to remove mediation by the recall of intervention knowledge was computed. There were 385 participants (47% in intervention networks) included in the analysis. The TE and CDE risk ratios for the intervention were 0.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28, 0.78] and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.26, 2.06) and the PE was 49%. Compared to participants in the control networks, the peer-driven intervention reduced the risk of HIV injection-related risk behavior by 53%. The mediating role of recall of intervention knowledge accounted for less than 50% of the total effect of the intervention, suggesting that other potential causal pathways between the intervention and the outcome, such as motivation and skill, self-efficacy, social norms and behavior modeling, should be considered in future studies.

The effect of antiretroviral therapy with high central nervous system penetration on HIV-related cognitive impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Chronic complications are a significant concern for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) infection. HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) are prevalent in PLWHA. Yet, the efficacy of medications that penetrate the central nervous system (CNS) at preventing or slowing the progression of HAND remains largely unknown. The objective of this study was to determine whether high CNS penetration effectiveness (CPE) regimens improve neurocognitive test scores in PLWHA on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). Primary literature evaluating cognitive outcomes based on CPE score of cART regimens in PLWHA was assembled from PubMed/Medline and EMBASE. Both randomized controlled trials and observational studies with at least 12 weeks of follow-up were included. A meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the standardized mean difference. Eight trials including a total of 3,303 patients with 13,103 person-years of follow-up were included in the systematic review. Four trials (n = 366 patients) met our inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. In the meta-analysis, HIV regimens with a high CPE score did not affect NPZ-4 or GDS scores (standardized mean difference (SMD) 0.10, 95% CI -0.19, 0.38; I2 = 26%). Future studies with larger sample sizes are warranted to prospectively evaluate the relationship between CPE and progression of HAND.

Toward evaluation of disseminated effects of medications for opioid use disorder within provider-based clusters using routinely-collected health data.

Routinely-collected health data can be employed to emulate a target trial when randomized trial data are not available. Patients within provider-based clusters likely exert and share influence on each other's treatment preferences and subsequent health outcomes and this is known as dissemination or spillover. Extending a framework to replicate an idealized two-stage randomized trial using routinely-collected health data, an evaluation of disseminated effects within provider-based clusters is possible. In this article, we propose a novel application of causal inference methods for dissemination to retrospective cohort studies in administrative claims data and evaluate the impact of the normality of the random effects distribution for the cluster-level propensity score on estimation of the causal parameters. An extensive simulation study was conducted to study the robustness of the methods under different distributions of the random effects. We applied these methods to evaluate baseline prescription for medications for opioid use disorder among a cohort of patients diagnosed with opioid use disorder and adjust for baseline confounders using information obtained from an administrative claims database. We discuss future research directions in this setting to better address unmeasured confounding in the presence of disseminated effects.

Spillover benefit of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention: evaluating the importance of effect modification using an agent-based model.

We developed an agent-based model using a trial emulation approach to quantify effect measure modification of spillover effects of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metropolitan area, Georgia. PrEP may impact not only the individual prescribed, but also their partners and beyond, known as spillover. We simulated a two-stage randomised trial with eligible components (≥3 agents with ≥1 HIV+ agent) first randomised to intervention or control (no PrEP). Within intervention components, agents were randomised to PrEP with coverage of 70%, providing insight into a high PrEP coverage strategy. We evaluated effect modification by component-level characteristics and estimated spillover effects on HIV incidence using an extension of randomisation-based estimators. We observed an attenuation of the spillover effect when agents were in components with a higher prevalence of either drug use or bridging potential (if an agent acts as a mediator between ≥2 connected groups of agents). The estimated spillover effects were larger in magnitude among components with either higher HIV prevalence or greater density (number of existing partnerships compared to all possible partnerships). Consideration of effect modification is important when evaluating the spillover of PrEP among MSM.

Early buprenorphine-naloxone initiation for opioid use disorder reduces opioid overdose, emergency room visits, and healthcare cost compared to late initiation.

Background: Although the effectiveness of buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX) has been established, real-world evidence on the benefits of early treatment initiation is limited.Objective: To evaluate the association between early BUP-NX initiation and health-related outcomes among insured adults with opioid use disorder (OUD).Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using the Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database from 2010 to 2018. Patients who initiated BUP-NX within 30 days of OUD diagnosis were classified as early initiators. Patients who initiated BUP-NX later, but within the one-year follow-up, were defined as late initiators. Outcomes included opioid overdose, opioid overdose-related emergency department (ED) visits, and all-cause healthcare cost during the year after OUD diagnosis. We employed generalized linear models to compare outcomes between early and late initiators, adjusting for baseline covariates and accounting for missing information for covariates using multiple imputation.Results: A total of 8,388 patients with OUD were identified; mean age was 39.9 years; 36% were female; and 67.6% were early initiators. Early initiators had an estimated 42% lower rate of opioid overdose (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 0.64); 51% lower rate of opioid overdose-related ED visits (aRR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.55); and 31% lower total healthcare cost (adjusted cost ratio = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.72), compared to late initiators.Conclusion: Compared to late BUP-NX initiation, early initiation was associated with a lower risk of opioid overdose and opioid overdose-related ED visits, and reduced total healthcare cost among insured adult patients with OUD.

Emulating Target Trials to Improve Causal Inference From Agent-Based Models.

Agent-based models are a key tool for investigating the emergent properties of population health settings, such as infectious disease transmission, where the exposure often violates the key "no interference" assumption of traditional causal inference under the potential outcomes framework. Agent-based models and other simulation-based modeling approaches have generally been viewed as a separate knowledge-generating paradigm from the potential outcomes framework, but this can lead to confusion about how to interpret the results of these models in real-world settings. By explicitly incorporating the target trial framework into the development of an agent-based or other simulation model, we can clarify the causal parameters of interest, as well as make explicit the assumptions required for valid causal effect estimation within or between populations. In this paper, we describe the use of the target trial framework for designing agent-based models when the goal is estimation of causal effects in the presence of interference, or spillover.

Disseminated Effects in Agent-Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Preexposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention.

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may benefit not only the person who uses it but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2015 to 2017. Model components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or the control group; then, within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to receive or not receive PrEP. We calculated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and report corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% coverage in the intervention components to 90% coverage. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated, with an average of 1,551 components identified. When comparing agents randomized to no PrEP in 70% coverage components with control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (risk ratio = 0.85, 95% simulation interval: 0.65, 1.05). Persons not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful for evaluating possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks.

Study Designs for Extending Causal Inferences From a Randomized Trial to a Target Population.

In this article, we examine study designs for extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population. Specifically, we consider nested trial designs, where randomized individuals are nested within a sample from the target population, and nonnested trial designs, including composite data-set designs, where observations from a randomized trial are combined with those from a separately obtained sample of nonrandomized individuals from the target population. We show that the counterfactual quantities that can be identified in each study design depend on what is known about the probability of sampling nonrandomized individuals. For each study design, we examine identification of counterfactual outcome means via the g-formula and inverse probability weighting. Last, we explore the implications of the sampling properties underlying the designs for the identification and estimation of the probability of trial participation.

Maternal Blood Pressure in Relation to Prenatal Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplementation and Adverse Birth Outcomes in a Ghanaian Cohort: A Randomized Controlled Trial and Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether prenatal lipid-based nutrient supplements (LNSs) affect blood pressure (BP). Associations between hypertension and birth outcomes using recently updated BP cutoffs are undetermined. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact of LNSs on maternal hypertension and associations between hypertension and birth outcomes. METHODS: Pregnant Ghanaian women at ≤20 weeks of gestation (n = 1320) were randomly assigned to receive daily 1) iron and folic acid (IFA), 2) multiple micronutrients (MMN), or 3) LNSs until delivery. BP was measured at enrollment and 36 weeks of gestation. We analyzed the effect of LNSs on BP using ANOVA and associations between hypertension [systolic BP (SBP) ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic BP (DBP) ≥80 mm Hg] and birth outcomes by linear and logistic regressions. RESULTS: Mean ± SD SBP and DBP were 110 ± 11 and 63 ± 8 mm Hg at 36 weeks of gestation and did not differ by supplementation group (SBP, P > 0.05; DBP, P > 0.05). At enrollment, higher DBP was associated with lower birth weight and shorter gestation; women with high DBP had greater risk of low birth weight (LBW) [risk ratio (RR): 2.58; 95% CI: 1.09, 6.08] and preterm birth (PTB) (RR: 3.30; 95% CI: 1.47, 7.40). At 36 weeks of gestation, higher SBP was associated with lower birth weight, length, and head circumference and shorter gestation; higher DBP was associated with lower birth weight and length; and women with high DBP had greater risk of LBW (RR: 3.39; 95% CI: 1.32, 8.69). Neither high SBP nor hypertension were associated with birth outcomes at either time point. CONCLUSIONS: Daily provision of LNSs does not affect maternal hypertension, compared with IFA and MMN. Higher SBP and DBP are associated with a shorter gestation and smaller birth size; however, only high DBP is associated with LBW and PTB. The new BP cutoffs may help identify pregnancies at risk of adverse birth outcomes.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00970866.

Impact of a Yin Yoga and meditation intervention on pharmacy faculty and student well-being.

BACKGROUND: Student pharmacists and faculty exhibit high levels of stress, independent of the current coronavirus 2019 pandemic, and their path toward wellness, including a reduction in stress and anxiety, is of the utmost importance. Yoga and meditation are proven interventions to reduce stress and anxiety and increase wellness. Yin yoga is an adaptable, quiet practice ideal for those lacking previous yoga experience, flexibility, and time. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a 6-week yin yoga and meditation intervention on College of Pharmacy faculty and students' stress perception, anxiety levels, and mindfulness skills. METHODS: Faculty and students participated in a 6-week pilot program comprising a once-weekly yin yoga class followed by guided meditation. Yin yoga was selected for its quiet meditative style. Participants completed a pre- and postquestionnaire at 6 weeks and 3 and 6 months to evaluate potential changes in perceived stress scores, anxiety scores, and mindfulness skills. The questionnaire was composed of 3 self-reporting tools: Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Perceived Stress Scale, and the Five Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire. RESULTS: Twenty participants, 12 students and 8 faculty (ages 18-66 years), completed the study. Anxiety and stress scores decreased, and mindfulness increased at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months, with all changes reaching statistical significance. No participants reported being in the "high" category of anxiety after intervention using BAI categorical data, although this finding was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Faculty and students demonstrated a reduction in stress and anxiety levels and an increase in mindfulness after a 6-week yin yoga and meditation program. Outcomes suggest that inclusion of an adaptable, meditative practice, which may easily be replicated at home, for as little as once per week for 6 weeks may reduce stress and anxiety and increase mindfulness long term. Creating a culture of wellness should be a priority for all Colleges of Pharmacy.

Rx for Addiction and Medication Safety (RAMS-PEER): Evaluation of an Education and Peer Program on Opioid Misuse.

The Rx (prescription) for Addiction and Medication Safety (RAMS) program was developed during the 2017 through 2018 academic year to educate students from 6 selected Rhode Island public high schools about opioid misuse, overdose, and recovery. During 2016, 3 schools participated in the RAMS program and returned for RAMS-PEER in 2017; 3 schools were newly recruited in 2016. Tenth graders returned from schools that participated during RAMS in 2016, and all ninth graders were new. Our study's aim was to evaluate the overall effect and spillover benefit of the RAMS-PEER intervention from tenth to ninth graders by surveying students both before and after the education program. Survey questions were modified from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey and the 2015 Ontario Study Survey. Student responses were matched for preintervention and postintervention analysis using a unique identifier. We observed an improvement in knowledge of opioid misuse; however, we found no evidence of a significant spillover benefit.

Defining a recovery-oriented cascade of care for opioid use disorder: A community-driven, statewide cross-sectional assessment.

BACKGROUND: In light of the accelerating and rapidly evolving overdose crisis in the United States (US), new strategies are needed to address the epidemic and to efficiently engage and retain individuals in care for opioid use disorder (OUD). Moreover, there is an increasing need for novel approaches to using health data to identify gaps in the cascade of care for persons with OUD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between June 2018 and May 2019, we engaged a diverse stakeholder group (including directors of statewide health and social service agencies) to develop a statewide, patient-centered cascade of care for OUD for Rhode Island, a small state in New England, a region highly impacted by the opioid crisis. Through an iterative process, we modified the cascade of care defined by Williams et al. for use in Rhode Island using key national survey data and statewide health claims datasets to create a cross-sectional summary of 5 stages in the cascade. Approximately 47,000 Rhode Islanders (5.2%) were estimated to be at risk for OUD (stage 0) in 2016. At the same time, 26,000 Rhode Islanders had a medical claim related to an OUD diagnosis, accounting for 55% of the population at risk (stage 1); 27% of the stage 0 population, 12,700 people, showed evidence of initiation of medication for OUD (MOUD, stage 2), and 18%, or 8,300 people, had evidence of retention on MOUD (stage 3). Imputation from a national survey estimated that 4,200 Rhode Islanders were in recovery from OUD as of 2016, representing 9% of the total population at risk. Limitations included use of self-report data to arrive at estimates of the number of individuals at risk for OUD and using a national estimate to identify the number of individuals in recovery due to a lack of available state data sources. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that cross-sectional summaries of the cascade of care for OUD can be used as a health policy tool to identify gaps in care, inform data-driven policy decisions, set benchmarks for quality, and improve health outcomes for persons with OUD. There exists a significant opportunity to increase engagement prior to the initiation of OUD treatment (i.e., identification of OUD symptoms via routine screening or acute presentation) and improve retention and remission from OUD symptoms through improved community-supported processes of recovery. To do this more precisely, states should work to systematically collect data to populate their own cascade of care as a health policy tool to enhance system-level interventions and maximize engagement in care.

Interpretation of the Individual Effect Under Treatment Spillover.

Some interventions are intended to benefit both individuals and the groups to which they belong. When a treatment given to one person exerts a causal effect on others, the treatment is said to exhibit spillover, dissemination, or interference. However, defining meaningful causal effects under spillover can be challenging. In this commentary, we discuss the meaning of the "individual effect," a quantity proposed to summarize the effect of treatment on the person who receives it, when spillover may be present.

Assessing Individual and Disseminated Effects in Network-Randomized Studies.

Implementation trials often involve clustering via risk networks, where only some participants directly receive the intervention. The individual effect is that among directly treated persons beyond being in an intervention network; the disseminated effect is that among persons engaged with those directly treated. In this article, we employ a causal inference framework and discuss assumptions and estimators for individual and disseminated effects and apply them to the HIV Prevention Trials Network 037 Study. HIV Prevention Trials Network 037 was a phase III, network-level, randomized controlled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention trial conducted in the United States and Thailand from 2002 to 2006 that recruited injection drug users, who were assigned to either an intervention group or a control group, and their risk network members, who received no direct intervention. Combining individual and disseminated effects, we observed a 35% composite rate reduction in the adjusted model (risk ratio = 0.65, 95% confidence interval: 0.47, 0.90). Methodology is now available for estimating the full set of these effects, enhancing knowledge gained from network-randomized trials. Although the overall effect gains validity from network randomization, we show that it will generally be less than the composite effect. Additionally, if only index participants benefit from the intervention, as the network size increases, the overall effect tends toward the null-an unfortunate and misleading conclusion.

Generalizing Study Results: A Potential Outcomes Perspective.

Great care is taken in epidemiologic studies to ensure the internal validity of causal effect estimates; however, external validity has received considerably less attention. When the study sample is not a random sample of the target population, the sample average treatment effect, even if internally valid, cannot usually be expected to equal the average treatment effect in the target population. The utility of an effect estimate for planning purposes and decision making will depend on the degree of departure from the true causal effect in the target population due to problems with both internal and external validity. Herein, we review concepts from recent literature on generalizability, one facet of external validity, using the potential outcomes framework. Identification conditions sufficient for external validity closely parallel identification conditions for internal validity, namely conditional exchangeability; positivity; the same distributions of the versions of treatment; no interference; and no measurement error. We also require correct model specification. Under these conditions, we discuss how a version of direct standardization (the g-formula, adjustment formula, or transport formula) or inverse probability weighting can be used to generalize a causal effect from a study sample to a well-defined target population, and demonstrate their application in an illustrative example.

HIV viremia and incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients successfully treated with antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients remains high despite treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We evaluated NHL incidence in HIV-infected patients followed in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems who started combination ART and achieved suppression of HIV. We estimated the hazard ratio for NHL by time-varying HIV viremia categories, accounting for time-varying CD4 cell count using marginal structural models. RESULTS: We observed 37 incident NHL diagnoses during 21 607 person-years of follow-up in 6036 patients (incidence rate, 171 per 100 000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 124-236). NHL incidence was high even among patients with nadir CD4 cell count >200 cells/µL (140 per 100 000 person-years [95% CI, 80-247]). Compared with ≤50 copies/mL, hazard ratios (HRs) for NHL were higher among those with HIV viremia of 51-500 copies/mL (HR current = 1.66 [95% CI, .70-3.94]; HR 3-month lagged = 2.10 [95% CI, .84-5.22]; and HR 6-month lagged = 1.46 [95% CI, .60-3.60]) and >500 copies/mL (HR current = 2.39 [95% CI, .92-6.21]; HR 3-month lagged = 3.56 [95% CI, 1.21-10.49]; and HR 6-month lagged = 2.50 [95% CI, .91-6.84]). Current HIV RNA as a continuous variable was also associated with NHL (HR = 1.42 per log10 copies/mL [95% CI, 1.05-1.92]). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate a high incidence of NHL among HIV-infected patients on ART and suggest a role of HIV viremia in the pathogenesis of NHL. Earlier initiation of potent ART and maximal continuous suppression of HIV viremia may further reduce NHL risk.